⏰It’s Time to Get Cautious on Commodities⏰

Good morning. Most asset classes have fallen far from their peaks. Cryptocurrencies have had the... It’s the monthly jobs numbers today and they’re not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May. [Trading Tips] Good morning. Most asset classes have fallen far from their peaks. Cryptocurrencies have had the largest percentage drops. And for the housing market, the data is still showing a slowdown in sales, rather than a full-on drop in prices. But one area that’s held up well has been the commodity market. That may be about to change. The world’s largest commodity consumer, China, is warning that their economy is in trouble. The harsh lockdowns earlier this year significantly crimped demand for goods and services. The good news? That could mean that consumers finally start to see easing prices in everything from lumber to copper to energy prices. The bad news? The chances of a global recession continue to rise. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content [Pizza automation is here. Invest while you can.]( Pizza purists: you’ve got bigger concerns than pineapple. Most pizzerias struggle with low margins, and automation has the potential to more than double those. That kicks the door open for robots to take over the $54 billion U.S. pizza market. [Piestro’s 40-square-foot pizzerias]( can cook up an artisanal pie in less than 3 minutes. They make a faster pizza without sacrificing quality. And these pods can squeeze into high-traffic commercial spaces–think shopping malls, stadiums, office buildings, and beyond. That’s a win-win for everyone in the pizza world and probably why [Piestro]( has locked in $580 million in pre-orders. This is only the beginning. [Get your slice of Piestro before things really get rolling.]( MARKETS DOW 32,120.28 +0.60% S&P 3,978.73 +0.95% NASDAQ 11,434.74 +1.51% *As of market close • Stocks rallied higher on Wednesday, following no change in the latest Fed meeting minutes. • Oil rose 1 percent, closing at $110.81 per barrel. • Gold declined 0.7 percent, ending at $1,853 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies traded mixed, with Bitcoin at $29,627 at the stock market close. Today’s TOP TIPS [In a Bear Market, Invest in Sectors That Aren’t Going Away]( While the economy is going through one of its periodic pullbacks, smart investors are preparing for the next move higher. That can come from investing in quality companies that lead their industry. Or it can come from investing in growth companies that are now trading at valuations that no longer reflect any growth. Most investors will fare well starting to buy names that offer a mix of the two. » [FULL STORY]( [Insider Trading Report: Home Depot (HD)]( Becker Seidman, a director at Home Depot (HD), recently bought 1,500 shares. The buy represents an initial stake for the director, and came to a total cost of just under $432,000. This represents the first insider buy at the company since December 2020. Otherwise, insiders have been regular sellers of shares, although those sales have almost exclusively come from company executives. » [FULL STORY]( [Unusual Options Activity: Electronic Arts (EA)]( Shares of video game developer Electronic Arts (EA) have been somewhat rangebound in the past year. However, one trader is betting on a move higher in the coming months. That’s based on the September $150 calls. With 113 days until expiration, 5,049 contracts traded hands compared to a prior open interest of 387, for a 13-fold rise in volume on the shares. The buyer of the calls paid $5.73 to get into the trade. » [FULL STORY]( IN OTHER NEWS • [Natural Gas Prices Top $9]( A combination of strong demand and dwindling inventories have pushed natural gas prices over $9 per million British thermal units. That’s the highest price since August 2008. The move comes as demand remains strong and exports from Eastern Europe remain strained. • [India Restricts Sugar Exports]( Days after banning the export of wheat, India is adding sugar to the list of products it’s restricting from sale on international markets. The nation is the world’s largest producer and second-largest exporter after Brazil. The move comes as inventories in the country have depleted amid strong international demand. • [Rapidly Rising Rates Threaten Mortgage Lenders]( The sudden rise in mortgage rates has sent 30-year fixed rates to about 5.8 percent right now. This sharp increase in the past few months is leading to a slowdown in homeowner refinancing and new home sales. That’s caused a number of mortgage lenders to lay off staffers, with more layoffs for such employees likely on the horizon. • [Wendy’s Latest Target for Possible Takeover]( Trian Fund Management, the largest shareholder of fast-food chain Wendy’s (WEN), is considering a potential takeover bid. The fund, an investment vehicle for billionaire Nelson Peltz, already owns about 19.4 percent of the company. The fund may make an outright offer, or consider going in with another large player. • [Andreessen Horowitz Announces $4.5 Billion Crypto Fund]( With cryptocurrencies down at least 50 percent from their highs in the past few months, venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz is adding a new fund to take advantage of prices now. The new $4.5 billion fund is double the size of the firm’s last crypto fund, and one-third of the fund will be earmarked for seed deals. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP M 9.086% BBY 8.97% BBWI 8.658% ZM 8.48% INTU 8.212% BOTTOM A 3.239% HOLX 3.049% WAT 2.996% TMO 2.651% OTIS 2.596% Quote of the Day There is no prospect for a material reduction in inflation unless the Fed aggressively raises rates, or the stock market crashes, catalyzing an economic collapse and demand destruction. If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job, and that is what is happening now. The only way to stop today’s raging inflation is with aggressive monetary tightening or with a collapse in the economy. - Bill Ackman, Pershing Square hedge fund founder, on why the stock market will likely further decline from here until there’s a sense that inflation is under control. Sponsored Content [Pizza automation is here. Invest while you can.]( Pizza purists: you’ve got bigger concerns than pineapple. Most pizzerias struggle with low margins, and automation has the potential to more than double those. That kicks the door open for robots to take over the $54 billion U.S. pizza market. [Piestro’s 40-square-foot pizzerias]( can cook up an artisanal pie in less than 3 minutes. They make a faster pizza without sacrificing quality. And these pods can squeeze into high-traffic commercial spaces–think shopping malls, stadiums, office buildings, and beyond. That’s a win-win for everyone in the pizza world and probably why [Piestro]( has locked in $580 million in pre-orders. This is only the beginning. [Get your slice of Piestro before things really get rolling.]( Not sure the best way to get started? 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