Good morning. Most investors have been bracing for a market pullback for some time, and it’s...
It’s the monthly jobs numbers today and they’re not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May. [Trading Tips] Good morning. Most investors have been bracing for a market pullback for some time, and it’s something we’ve been warning about even before Evergrande started its collapse. Typically, seasonal drops this time of year lead to a pullback of 5-10 percent. Investors should consider 1-2 of these drops in the course of a normal year. With monetary and fiscal policy still at full throttle to support the economy, this level of a drop has been far and few between. Now, research from Morgan Stanley suggests that the odds of a full-blown bear market, with a 20 percent correction, are on the rise. The investment bank already has a year-end target for the S&P 500 about 10 percent below current levels. While that would still lead to an up year for the market, it would also take a lot of current profits off the table. For now, extreme caution in the market is the name of the game. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content [Urgent New Crypto Alert – BUY BUY]( Silicon Valley millionaire Jeff Brown called it in 2014, when he first bought Bitcoin. In 2015, he called it again, when he publicly recommended Bitcoin at $240... In 2016, he recommended Nvidia at $25... before it hit $799... and he predicted the #1 returning tech stock in 4 years out of 5... In 2017, he called it again – when he recommended Bitcoin again along with two other cryptocurrencies, which have since soared as high as 924.3%... Now he believes THIS could be his most profitable public recommendation to date! [Click here for the full details on his urgent new buy alert before it expires.]( MARKETS DOW 33,970.47 -1.78% S&P 4,357.73 -1.70% NASDAQ 14,713.90 -2.19% *As of market close • Stocks dropped heavily on Monday, on contagion fears from the collapse of Evergrande. • Oil dropped 1.6 percent, closing at $70.85 per barrel. • Gold rose 0.8 percent, last going for $1,765 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies were crushed, with Bitcoin at $43,872 at the stock market close. Today’s TOP TIPS [Is the Most Important Stock of Earnings Season a Buy Now?]( Investors have come to expect big tech stocks to drive the market higher. But for a sign as to how the real economy is performing, there are other sectors to look at. Energy is one player, and gradually rising prices in the space suggest the economic recovery, while uneven, is continuing. Another area is in shipping and logistics. Many headline stories about supply chain issues overlook the fact that labor shortages in shipping has been a big driver of prices. » [FULL STORY]( [Insider Trading Report: Fastenal (FAST)]( Sam Hsu, a director at Fastenal (FAST), recently bought 1,000 shares. The buy increased his stake by 50 percent, and came to a total price of just under $53,000. The buy came just a few days after another director bought 265 shares, paying just over $14,000 to make the buy. Overall, company insiders have been active as both buyers and sellers, although insider sales have far exceeded buys over the past 3 years, even as the stock has trended higher. » [FULL STORY]( [Unusual Options Activity: Roku (ROKU)]( Shares of TV streaming platform Roku (ROKU) have been trending down since July. One trader sees the possibility for a rebound in the months ahead. That’s based on the December $325 calls. With 87 days until expiration, over 5,070 contracts traded, a 34-fold increase in volume compared to the prior open interest of 150. The buyer of the calls paid $30.08 to make the trade. » [FULL STORY]( IN OTHER NEWS • [Contagion Fears Rise Amidst Evergrande Implosion]( Evergrande, the Chinese property development company, continues to drop. Now, fears are rising that the company’s implosion may impact the broader economy. The company is looking to liquidate a global portfolio of properties, as well as other assets such as Bitcoin in a rush for liquidity. That could lead to other selloffs in the coming days for Evergrande, as well as for companies that face margin calls as a result of Evergrande’s decline. • [Stagflation Fears Rise on Persistent Inflation]( Inflation rates remain above average, and while the rate of growth has started to slow, it’s looking as though higher inflation rates are here to stay. Combined with a slowly-growing economy, the resulting stagflation is reminiscent of the economy in the 1970s, and has the potential to continue to play out until inflation can drop and economic growth can rise. • [US Eases Travel Restrictions for Visitors Vaccinated Against Covid]( The US is easing restrictions from travelers from the UK and EU who are vaccinated against Covid. The move should help restore international travel, which still remains well under pre-pandemic levels. The changes are to take place in early November, just in time for the holiday travel season. • [Twitter Settles Securities Suit]( Social media company Twitter (TWTR) has agreed to pay a $809.5 million settlement. The suit against the company alleged that the firm misled investors about user engagement statistics back in 2015. The settlement is expected to resolve all claims against Twitter in the matter, without the company admitting any fault, liability, or wrongdoing. • [SpaceX Flight Sees Successful Splashdown]( Inspriation4, the first all-passenger spaceflight built by SpaceX, successfully splashed down on Saturday night off the coast of Florida. The SpaceX Go Searcher recovery ship hauled the capsule in less than one hour after splashdown, and the passengers were ferried by helicopter to the Kennedy Space Center for medical checks. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP AAL 2.975% UAL 1.639% DAL 1.508% CNP 1.289% ARE 1.248% BOTTOM IVZ 8.819% NUE 7.799% APA 6.207% TPR 6.04% FCX 5.976% Quote of the Day We expect volatility to increase over the next month driven by a seasonal pickup in investor uncertainty, continued virus uncertainty, and significant monetary and fiscal policy catalysts. - John Marshall, head of derivatives research for Goldman Sachs, on why the stock market is likely to see a lot more volatile trades in the coming weeks, a point we’ve been raising going into the seasonally volatile months of September and October. Sponsored Content [Urgent New Crypto Alert – BUY BUY]( Silicon Valley millionaire Jeff Brown called it in 2014, when he first bought Bitcoin. In 2015, he called it again, when he publicly recommended Bitcoin at $240... In 2016, he recommended Nvidia at $25... before it hit $799... and he predicted the #1 returning tech stock in 4 years out of 5... In 2017, he called it again – when he recommended Bitcoin again along with two other cryptocurrencies, which have since soared as high as 924.3%... Now he believes THIS could be his most profitable public recommendation to date! [Click here for the full details on his urgent new buy alert before it expires.](
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