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Dear Trading God Friend,
The S&P 500 set a new record as the traditional December rally continues.
The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) set a new record on Friday, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA)
The November employment report was given credit for the advance and for the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 was up 0.35% and the Nasdaq dipped 0.1%.
VIX (NYSEARCA:VXX) fell 5.7% to close at 9.58, near recent lows as complacency and confidence continue to dominate U.S. markets.
The November employment report beat expectations with 228,000 new jobs being posted. The Trump tax plan continues cheering investors and the Fed appears on track to raise interest rates at this week's meeting.
The latest potential government shutdown was postponed to December 22 as nobody seems worried about the ongoing bulge in Federal deficits.
The Fed is meeting this week, and the Fed funds futures are suggesting two rate hikes for all of 2018, which would keep interest rates at relatively benign levels. The Fed, however, could have different ideas with some projections of as many as four rate hikes in 2018.
The most important aspect of all of this is that Fed tightening almost always ends in a recession which everyone knows is bad for stocks. Coupled with an historically overvalued market, a decline of 50% or more in U.S. equities would be no surprise.
The Fed also plans to reduce its balance sheet of bond purchases made during the "Great Recession" and so higher rates and shrinking balance sheets, the two drivers of this bull market, are gradually being taken away. Can 2+2=5? Unlikely. And as the old saying goes, "this time is never different."
This week's Fed meeting will be "adios" for Janet Yellen who will be succeeded by Jerome Powell, a current Fed governor.
The upcoming week brings the two day Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Fed Chair news conference at the end of the meeting.
Last week's economic news showed October factory orders declining slightly, along with slight declines in services PMI and ISM for November.
Consumer sentiment also fell in October.
In addition to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, the upcoming week will bring November producer prices on Tuesday, consumer prices on Wednesday and November retail sales on Thursday. Thursday also highlights December PMI and Friday brings the December Empire State Index and November industrial production.
The last word: Complacency continues and the year end rally is in full swing. Somehow all of this is eerily reminiscent of December, 2007, which was then followed by a decline of approximately 15% by March, 2008, and the waterfall declines of late 2008-2009.
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Sincerely,
Dan, The Trading God
dan@tradinggods.net
[](
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