october 5, 2016
[Inside Trading]
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Darrell Jobman
Formerly Editor-in-Chief of Futures Magazine, Darrell has been writing about financial markets for more than 35 years and has become an acknowledged authority on derivative markets, technical analysis and various trading techniques.
When Oster purchased Commodities Magazine in 1976, Jobman was named editor and later became editor-in-chief of Futures Magazine when the name was changed in 1983 during one of the biggest growth periods for new markets and new trading instruments in futures history. He was an editor at Futures until 1993, when he left to become an independent writer/consultant.
Since 1993, he has written, collaborated, edited or otherwise participated in the publication of about a dozen books on trading, including The Handbook on Technical Analysis. He has also written or edited articles for several publications and brokerage firms as well as trading courses and educational materials for Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. He also served as editorial director of CME Magazine.
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The Original Turtle Trading Rules
People have paid thousands for a glimpse at these rules and now you can have them to implement for a fraction of the cost. Saving huge amounts of money is spectacular, but it gets even better. Here are three reasons why you need to reserve your copy of this course and get your hands on this mechanical system:
- Everyone is trying to guess the bottom. STOP. This system shows you how to stop guessing and simply be better positioned for potential gains when the trend changes.
- When this system was first created it was applied to commodities and still is successful in these markets. Now, with the advent of ETF’s, the Turtle system may be used in more markets.
- Since this approach is based on the trend, it may work well in today’s markets because it allows you to diversify and reduce your risk while increasing your profit potential.
There is no guarantee you will be profitable using the Turtle Trading System or will not incur losses. Futures and Forex trading involves significant risk of loss, and thus is not appropriate for everyone.
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[Profitable Trading the Turtle Way]
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Dear Trader,
This week Inside Trading features Darrell Jobman. In his article, Darrell talks about trading using breakout trend indicators.
Next, Lee Gettess shares his video newsletter on what he expects from the S&P and bond markets for the coming week.
Ellie Taft provides the next segment outlining how to interpret currency pair correlations.
Last, Wendy Kirkland offers her Prime Entry Profits (PEP) Rally Newsletter.
Enjoy!
Adrienne LaVigne
TradeWins Publishing
Go With the Breakout
by Darrell Jobman
The following is an excerpt from Darrell Jobman's [Profitable Trading the Turtle Way]
As that subset of traders known as trend followers, we obviously are on the lookout for “trends”. Of course, how to define or measure a trend is itself subject to some interpretation, but for right now, let’s start with the types of indicators that us Turtles were taught to use. Generally, they can be classified in the category of “channel breakouts”. This is our weapon of choice because of its ease of use.
We start by defining a “channel” as some kind of horizontal or sideways price movement of a set of daily price bars. The price bars stay within a narrow range, with the highs never going above the top of the range and the lows never going below the bottom of the range. The range is the setup for the trade. What we’re looking for now is price action that penetrates out of that channel in one direction or the other.
As it is written for the computer program, we are just simply looking for “today’s price to be the highest high or the lowest low of the past X number of bars”. For example, in the specific model we use in our forex trading, “X” is set to 21 bars. In other words, we are going to go long every time the price goes higher than it has been for the past 21 bars and go short every time the price goes lower than it has been for the past 21 bars. This is our basic initiation or entry signal. It’s very simple and straightforward.
It is very important to keep in mind here that the exact value for X is not crucial to the systems; it is the concept itself that is much more important. The beauty of using a program like TradeStation is that you can test many different range variables simultaneously with the push of a few buttons. If the concept of trend following is valid and the concept of using range breakouts to try to measure or define the beginning or end of trends is also valid, then it should not matter much if we use 21 bars, 22 bars, or 19 bars to generate our basic signals.
In fact, if we would have found that altering the range length slightly wound up producing a large difference in total results, then we would have had a much more serious problem of statistical reliability. But if all of the various range lengths show consistently close results, that means our system is what the statisticians call “robust”.
Using this system, look at how easy it becomes to make trading decisions. Every day, my computer program (you can also do updates manually if you like), looks over all of the charts of the different markets that we might be trading, which takes maybe five minutes. We are searching for the markets that have been trading in a sideways consolidation for some period of time – the longer, the better, actually.
[Go With the Breakout]
Lee Gettess' Market Sense
by Lee Gettess
Lee Gettess is a top trader who is excited to bring you his video newsletter. Each week, Lee will share his predictions on what he anticipates from the bond and S&P markets.
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Currency Correlations
by Ellie Taft
The following is an excerpt from Ellie Taft's [Dad’s Legacy Book & Quick-Start CD]
Many Carry Traders will invest in a “basket” of currencies, hoping to keep their Net Asset Value stable while they collect triple-digit interest. Don’t you think it would be smart for us to hedge our bests the same way?
Most traders put all their money into just one or two currency pairs and go through dozens of decision making steps… hoping to be right. And I say more power to them. But personally, I think trying to filter out losers takes entirely too much time and effort. I’d rather follow a more simple approach to trading a half-dozen pairs, and let the winners overpower the losers!
Diverse Means Different… Correlated Means Not Different
The reason we want to diversify is to avoid “putting all of our eggs in one basket”. That way, if a trade begins to falter in one currency pair, we have a good chance the profits in another currency pair will make up for it. And keep the money rolling in.
But, that only works if the two pairs march to different drummers. If they march in lockstep to one another, you gain virtually nothing.
How one currency pair moves relative to another pair is known as the correlation between those two pairs, such as follows:
+1.00 = move exactly 100% the same
-1.00 = move exactly 100% opposite
0 = no relationship whatsoever between the two
Of course, nothing is ever 100%. So, the correlation coefficient will be a number somewhere between -1.00 and +1.00.
[Currency Correlations]
Prime Entry Profits (PEP)
by Wendy Kirkland
The following is an excerpt from Wendy Kirkland’s [Prime Entry Profits]
Every day Wendy Kirkland shares her “Prime Entry Profits” (PEP) Rally Newsletter. The following are her thoughts for the week, along with what she expects this week in trading.
Thought for the Week
Happiness comes from giving your full attention to thoughts that make you feel happy and ignoring thoughts that don’t make you feel happy. Your life is in your hands...
In Trading
The indices dropped and rose and dropped to test recent lows and then started to rise again toward the end of the day. A number of patterns swung from early P3s to P3.5 sweet spots to new P3s again. This environment makes it hard for patterns to unfold, and in general, hard to trade. Remember sometimes the best trade advice is not to trade. Don't trade just to trade. You want probability on your side. You want a market to move in one direction for longer than an hour or two.
The symbols listed below are starting to form patterns. Be sure you wait for confirms and check earnings dates.
GOOG- Alphabet - P3-sweet spot
BWLD- Buffalo Wild Wings - P3
BABA- Alibaba - P3
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PLEASE READ. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss trading commodities, stocks, bonds and options with or without this or any other advertised product, service or system. Also hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
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