Our friends at Derby City Insights share how finding the perfect stock is a lot like finding the perfect horse⦠[TradeSmith Daily]( How to Pick âThoroughbredâ Stocks Editor's Note: This report first appeared in Derby City Daily. To catch up on similar must-read reports and to learn more about Co-Founder Andy Swan and his team, [you can click here](.
When Mage triumphed in the 149th running of the [Kentucky Derby]( the three-year-old thoroughbred overcame 15-1 odds to do so. 15-1 odds. A longshot. That win — along with my familyâs lifelong involvement in horse racing — has me thinking about longshots here of late. A lot. In the world of horse racing, one name that doesnât quite have the same recognition as Seabiscuit or Secretariat, but stands as a testament to unexpected success, is Mine That Bird. That geldingâs journey to victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby stands as a valuable lesson in horse racing — and the factors that can predict “longshot” champions. Mine That Bird was a longshot in every sense of the word. Bred in Canada, he lacked the pedigree of many of his competitors. His sire was Birdstone, who had won the Belmont Stakes, but his dam was a relatively unknown mare. Standing only 15.2 hands high, Mine That Bird was noticeably undersized compared to the typical thoroughbred. He was seen as a 50-1 Derby longshot. But there were signs of his upside — hints at what was to come. For instance:
- He demonstrated significant speed and endurance — even if he hadnât maintained that performance level.
- He was paired with an experienced jockey, Calvin Borel, whoâd notched the Kentucky Derby win in 2007.
That brings me back to the 2009 Derby. Race morning was ugly: The track was a rain-abused, sloppy mess. And hereâs where Mine That Birdâs real attributes began to shine through… where perceived negatives became positives. His “smallness” meant he was more agile than the bigger horses he was racing against — especially on the sloppy track that day. Borel expertly guided his horse through the pack. And then — in one of the most thrilling finishes in Derby history — Mine That Bird made a power move on the rail and pulled away to win by 6¾ lengths. With the largest margin in more than 60 years, the horse so many “experts” had dismissed out of hand was now a Derby champion.
In hindsight, the signs were there. As surprising as it seems, those “signs” can also be used to identify off-the-radar investment winners — like the energy drink maker we identified three years ago whose stock recently hit an all-time high. And thatâs what I want to show you here today… RECOMMENDED LINK [When Will America Get âBack to Normalâ?](
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Past performance as a juvenile, an experienced jockey, and a resilience that lent itself well to the adverse track conditions on race day… Mine That Birdâs story reminds us that in horse racing, itâs not always the obvious choice — or the biggest horse — that comes out on top. This same is true of investing and trading. When it comes to stocks, some of the biggest wins come from the smallest players — the lesser-known, off-the-radar names — that that are just starting to show signs of explosive growth. Companies that seem to “come out of the pack” to win. Longshots. Among these “signs,” there are three that are key — [our “Trifecta Box” secret sauce for unlocking “10-bagger” profit opportunities](. Weâre talking about:
âï¸ Strong Consumer Demand âï¸ High Consumer Happiness âï¸ Macro Trend Tailwinds Itâs a powerful system — and it works. Among the companies we follow, healthy energy drink maker Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH), a brand thatâs rocketing in popularity among fitness nuts, checks off those boxes. In fact, itâs checked our “winner” box at least three times in the last three years.
And Celsius has yet to disappoint… Check out the gains logged since each recommendation to our Opportunity Alerts subscribers: ALERT SEND DATE GAINS AS OF MAY 17
CELH Bullish Alert 1 April 14, 2021 +133% ð
CELH Bullish Alert 2 January 24, 2022 +201% ð
CELH Bullish Alert 3 February 27, 2023 +45% ð We also put out a special report on Celsius [right here in Derby City Daily on February 28](. The common theme of each bullish signal? Celsius was outracing its peers in Consumer Happiness and Purchase Intent, hitting the mark on all three pieces of our “Trifecta” strategy with: âï¸ Surging demand for its beverages… âï¸ An army of hyper-enthusiastic consumers who are “casting votes” for its offerings… âï¸ And a wave of post-pandemic demand for “better-for-you” food and drink options propelling this company into a long-term winner. When CELH shares hit an all-time high, we werenât surprised. This “thoroughbred” stock just keeps winning… RECOMMENDED LINK [Can This Daily Email Fund Your Retirement?](
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Compared with other, bigger peers like Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST), Celsius has the strongest level of consumer demand growth. Purchase Intent mentions are pacing 18% higher year-over-year as of this writing.
Its beverages are healthier than its rivalâs energy drinks, which tend to be sugary calorie adders.
And with a savvy distribution deal with PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) putting its drinks in store coolers across the country, Celsius demand — and revenues — are soaring. The company announced 95% year-over-year revenue growth for the first quarter of 2023; it also reported record net income for the quarter that topped what it made for the entire year of 2022. Oh, and Celsius is doing all that while also maintaining the highest levels of Consumer Happiness (currently hovering around 75%).
When you couple this super-positive consumer data with a continuation of the macro trend — a focus on “good-for-you” food and drinks — youâve checked all three of the boxes.
Add in strong distribution partnerships (like PepsiCo), and youâre talking about a “bet” you can feel comfortable making in the immediate term. Weâll continue to provide updates as data progresses and share other long-shot winners with members along the way. In case you missed it the first time around, you can check out our initial Derby City Daily report on Celsius [right here](. Until next time, [Andy Swan]Andy Swan
Co-Founder, Derby City Insights [Download now on the Apple Store](
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