[TradeSmith Daily]( The Eerie Parallel to 2019 That Could Make You a Lot of Money in 2023
In all the media narratives about different companies and startups, you rarely see journalists or pundits pull up a price chart. Sure, theyâll report a 20% rally or decline â if itâs an investment that lots of people are already talking about. But without chartwork, that number is totally out of context: useless. Itâs a shame. Because chart patterns and indicators can not only reveal whatâs going on now... but also point you to whatâs next. After all, when you plot out a price chart, youâre really tracking investor psychology. The cycles of fear and greed. And when it comes to psychology, well, humans have behaved much the same since our earliest ancestors were scratching patterns and pictures onto cave walls. People rush into decisions when their emotions get triggered. If youâre in the financial media, you can tap into these emotions to get people to read your story. If youâre an investor, you can be one of the herd yourself... or you can look for the cycles of market psychology â see how they map out on a chart â and use your findings to set objective price targets in your portfolio. And some of the best charts to use are actually found in the cryptocurrency markets. RECOMMENDED LINK [My #1 way to make money right now](
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Think about it: Crypto prices move on pure speculation. Cryptocurrency has only been around for less than 15 years, with widespread adoption picking up much more recently than that. Blockchain technology is still very much under development as to the actual products and services being built there. And when an asset class is âspeculative,â investor psychology drives pretty much all the price action. But donât take our word for it. Look at whatâs happened with Bitcoin (BTC) this past month. Bitcoin was suddenly shoved into the spotlight in mid-March. Bank failures had people pondering alternatives to the dollar... and also forced the Federal Reserve to cool it with the interest rate hikes â inspiring Wall Street to reach for ârisk assets,â including crypto. If that was the first time you looked at Bitcoin in a while, it might have seemed sudden when BTC surged back to $28,000, then $30,000, price levels we havenât seen for nearly a year. In our crypto communities like [Crypto Advantage Society]( however, we knew that Bitcoin had been building up to this for a while. Way back in January, BTC knocked down the first domino: its 200-day moving average (MA).
âIn simple terms, this shows us the average price level over the last 200 days â you can see it represented by the blue line,â Senior Crypto Analyst Joe Shew explained in that monthâs issue. In bear markets, we remain under the 200-day MA for a time. âTime and again in bull markets, we overshoot the 200-day MA line and go on a massive bull run... Next stop: $25,000,â i.e., the 200-week moving average, Joe predicted in January. The rest was history. Bitcoin retook $25,000 four weeks later, confirming that we were in a âstrong, 2019-style rally,â as Joe put it. Already the parallels were so clear when you overlaid the 2019 price action in BTC with its current chart, as Joe did for his subscribers. RECOMMENDED LINK [The Fedâs Boldest Move Ever...](
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In 2019 as well as 2023, Bitcoin was following âexactly the Wyckoff accumulation model,â Joe explained in one update in late March. According to this pattern â which was discovered in the 1930s, and is commonly used in stock analysis â Bitcoin had just moved into what Richard Wyckoff termed âPhase E.â
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Based on this Wyckoff pattern and its precedent in 2019, Joe told his subscribers on March 30 that he expected BTC to make a âstrong movement outâ from the price at the time, $28,000, before âconsolidat[ing] around that $30,000 to $32,000 region.â Then he predicted that BTC would âmove up potentially to that low $40,000 regionâ by the end of 2023 before experiencing âa pullback to test the low $30,000 region again.â Bitcoin checked that first box â retaking $30,000 â 11 days later. If youâre still skeptical about the rest of these price predictions playing out, well, see how closely BTC has followed that Wyckoff pattern so far, on its one-year chart:
Apparently, our behavior really hasnât changed in 100 years â and probably for much longer than that. As the saying goes: History may not repeat, but it does rhyme. And as investors, we can use that to help us navigate even the trickiest markets. Take care, Team TradeSmith Before You Go: Could this be the ChatGPT of investing? [Don't miss this...]( [Download now on the Apple Store](
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