The Data Point That Matters the Most for the Direction of the Stock Market

[TradeSmith Daily]( The Data Point That Matters the Most for the Direction of the Stock Market Data can often serve as a collection of jigsaw puzzle pieces that, when fitted together, create a clear image of something. But for the economy, there are a lot of data puzzle pieces that conflict and don’t fit nicely together — and there’s no picture on the cover of the box to tell you what it’s supposed to look like. For instance, the number of S&P 500 companies that used the word “recession” in their earnings reports dropped by 20% from the third quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2022. This would appear to be a good sign: If fewer executives are worried about a recession, it could mean the economy is on more stable footing. Job creation also surpassed expectations once again in February with 311,000 jobs added, toppling the estimates of 225,000. Consumers are also proving resilient even with high inflation, as spending increased 1.8% in January. If these were the only pieces of data you were looking at, you would think the economy is humming along just fine. But the other pieces of the puzzle compose a much different picture. Personal debt increased in the fourth quarter of 2022 to $16.9 trillion, up roughly $1.3 trillion from the previous year. There was also an increase of delinquencies for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. People may be spending more, but they may also be using more debt to fund those purchases. Something else to worry about is the fact that the rate at which people are saving money has hit its lowest point since 2005. If people are racking up debt and don’t have the savings to pay it off, that’s troubling. Add into the mix the recent issues with the banking industry, and it’s difficult to get the real picture of what’s happening. As I was talking with Quantum Edge Pro Editor Jason Bodner about all this, he assured me that there was no need to suffer from information overload, as he believes just one data point should be focused on the most. RECOMMENDED LINK [ANNOUNCING: Elon Musk says THIS is one of the biggest risks to civilization...]( [Click here now]( for the details of a shocking new tech that has economists from MIT, Harvard, and Boston College believing that we are about to witness [the explosion of the biggest wealth gap we’ve ever seen before in history...]( The Federal Reserve’s Data-Based Decisions Uncertainty creates volatility, and Jason said that what can help ease uncertainty and reduce volatility is knowing what the Fed plans to do in its battle against inflation. Because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) gives the Fed an indication of whether raising interest rates is helping to cool inflation, the CPI is the one data point to pay attention to the most. (The CPI numbers are expected to be released at 8:30 a.m. today.) If the data shows that inflation is going down, the Fed can eventually start to consider easing up on the rate hikes and eventually cut rates, a scenario that Jason believes could happen in 2024. If the data shows that inflation is higher than expected, the Fed will believe it needs to continue raising rates. That’s a valuable outlook from Jason, but of course, the most important thing to know is what to do with that information. Jason believes that stocks will experience volatile price swings in the near term, as no one is certain of the Fed’s next few moves. However, he also believes that this is creating a stock picker’s market, which is actually good news. If you just wanted average returns, you would be investing in an index fund that tracks one of the major indexes, and you likely wouldn’t be reading this. But you probably want to go beyond average and beat the market, something Jason shows people how to do through his proprietary trading system. For instance, Jason released in a report at the end of February that Crocs (CROX) — the maker of those odd-looking but extremely comfortable rubbery shoes — jumped out to him. RECOMMENDED LINK [TREND ALERT: Ordinary People Getting Paid to Trade?]( The old way of trading: Logging into your brokerage account and buying shares. The NEW way of trading: Getting paid cash NOW for agreeing to buy shares LATER. Once you discover the freedom and control this gives you on every trade, you may NEVER go back to the old way of doing things again. And it couldn’t be more straightforward. You can see that this particular play would’ve PAID you $335 instantly. [And right here in this demo, I will show you why the “POP” you see here tells you if you’re teed up for a favorable outcome before you ever hit “enter.”]( CROX had a fantastic Quantum Score of 86.2 over the first two months of the year, making it the highest-rated Discretionary stock in his system. (The Quantum Score is Jason’s proprietary number for ranking stocks.) Its fundamentals had a strong score of 79.2, thanks to good sales-and-earnings growth, solid profit margins, and a decent valuation even with the stock’s run over the past 12 months. With that kind of performance, it’s no wonder the “stocks” technicals were also strong, with a score of 79.2. Its sluggishness over the last month is the only negative — if you can even call it that. And you can see that Big Money has made its presence known on multiple occasions (illustrated by the green bars in the chart below) over the last six months. That’s a good indicator of more Big-Money buying to come. Jason views CROX as a stock that is setting itself up as a buying opportunity rather than one to rush out and buy right now, but it is on his watchlist and could become a recommended investment in one of his trading services. Enjoy your Tuesday, [Keith Kaplan]Keith Kaplan CEO, TradeSmith The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Wealth Gap Is Forming Thanks to AI, economists from MIT, Harvard, and Boston College believe that we are about to witness the explosion of the biggest wealth gap we’ve ever seen. And with AI’s capabilities, who can disagree with them? Starting today… - A college student can type a sentence into a box and do the work of several coding engineers at once — endangering thousands of careers. - One AI lawyer can now service an average of 253 clients every single day — replacing entire law firms in a single moment. - Even doctors are at risk, as HealthITAnalytics reports: An AI doctor just passed the U.S. Medical Licensing Exam without any doctor input. Point is, the writing is on the wall. AI is here, and if you don’t learn how to trade alongside AI, you could be left behind. But fortunately, you don't have to be an expert at coding or computers to use powerful tech to gain an edge. [To learn more, you are free to click here.]( [Download now on the Apple Store]( [Get It On Google Play]( More Investable Information at Your Fingertips [TradeSmith’s 2023 Guide to Beating Inflation]( [Bitcoin Is Far from Dead (Here’s Proof)]( [This Could Be the Amazon of Gene-Editing Stocks]( [Electric Vehicles Passed This 5% Tipping Point – Here Are 2 Investments to Make]( [Customer Support: 866.385.2076](tel:+866-385-2076) | support@tradesmith.com [Mailbag Questions](mailto:Keith@TradeSmithDaily.com) ©TradeSmith, LLC. All Rights Reserved. You may not reproduce, modify, copy, sell, publish, distribute, display or otherwise use any portion of the content without the prior written consent of TradeSmith. TradeSmith is not registered as an investment adviser and operates under the publishers’ exemption of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The investments and strategies discussed in TradeSmith’s content do not constitute personalized investment advice. Any trading or investment decisions you take are in reliance on your own analysis and judgment and not in reliance on TradeSmith. There are risks inherent in investing and past investment performance is not indicative of future results. TradeSmith P.O. Box 340087 Tampa, FL 33694 [Terms of Use]( [Privacy Policy]( To unsubscribe or change your email preferences, please [click here](. [tradesmith logo]