[Predictions Gone Wrong] Popular 'Predictions' Heading into 2023 That Went Down the Drain

So what's the 'prediction' for the rest of 2023? Picks from the Editor SPONSORED (Newsletter Continues Below) Sponsored [Discover a Recession-Proof Company for Your Portfolio]( We have identified a recession-proof company that has tremendous potential for growth in the coming years. Our research team has given them our highest score as a solid addition to any portfolio.[Go HERE to see the Potential Investing Opportunity]( By clicking this link you are subscribing to The Stock Market Monster Newsletter and may receive up to 2 additional free bonus subscriptions. Unsubscribing is easy [Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( Debunking the Most Popular Stock Market Prediction for 2023  Hi Traders,  The S&P 500 has left many financial forecasters scratching their heads in the first half of this year.  Here's a quick snapshot of what's been happening: Last week, stocks closed in the green, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%. Overall, it's up 12% this year, a full 20.2% since it hit its lows last October, and just 10.4% shy of its record closing high in January 2022.  Now get this, Thursday's market behavior officially confirmed that the bear has been sleeping since October, and we've been skipping through a field of bull markets since.  If you're scratching your head, don't worry - these bullish moves caught most of us by surprise!  A quick step back in time: In December, I shared a roundup of Wall Street forecasts for 2023, and the consensus was a shaky first half followed by a steadier climb.  The fear of an earnings growth recession loomed large - and in a sense, it's here. But as per Oppenheimer's Ari Wald and a few other analysts who crunched the numbers, these worries might have been a tad dramatic.  Here's a fun fact: there's not a super strong relationship between annual earnings change and the S&P 500 price change.  Actually, a dip in earnings often lags behind the market indicator. Even more intriguing is that in years when earnings dropped, stocks often climbed. Don't ask me how that works - the market has its own brand of logic!  There was also a lot of chatter about the likelihood of market weakness in the first half of the year. It was so popular, it even made the cover of Barron's!  But as my mother always told me, "Don't believe everything you read." And in this case, she was right.  Wall Street strategists like BofA's Savita Subramanian and BMO Capital Markets' Brian Belski were a bit skeptical about this "consensus" view.  And guess what?  The stock market has spent most of this year climbing uphill. There were a couple of days in January when the S&P 500 dipped into the red, but otherwise, it's been greener than a St. Patrick's Day parade.  As the State Street Global Advisors' Michael Arone noted, stocks and bonds haven't been playing by the consensus rules.  Now, here's the thing about market risks: they tend to shrink when people discuss them because they get priced into the market.  Perhaps that's why Wall Street strategists, from Goldman Sachs' David Kostin to RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina, have recently revised up their year-end price targets for the S&P 500.  Now, don't get me wrong. This isn't about playing a fanfare for bearish market-timers getting it wrong.  The fact of the matter is, predicting short-term market movements is like trying to predict the weather - even if you know the season, you could still end up with an unexpected thunderstorm.  And it can be downright risky to play bear in a typically bullish stock market. You run the risk of missing out on short-term gains, which could end up leaving a significant dent in your long-term returns.  All said and done, as we lean back and reflect on the S&P 500's performance so far this year, it's clear the market continues to march to its own beat, leaving some of the finest financial minds a bit out of tune.  But hey, that's the beauty of it, isn't it? Makes trading just a tad bit more exciting!  Keep on keeping up!  John @ Traders on Trend  (In the next article: Want to learn what's in store with the Fed and the markets after pausing interest rates? Find out below! 👇) Sponsored [Protect Your Wealth from Inflation - Your Survival Guide]( Inflation is a silent killer of your wealth. You may be losing more money than you realize, and it could only get worse. Don't wait until it's too late to take action. [Go HERE To Learn How to Protect Yourself from Infl]( By clicking the link you are subscribing to The Investors News Newsletter and may receive up to 2 additional free bonus subscriptions. Unsubscribing is easy [Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( Check the Free Presentation Today ☝ SPONSORED The Fed's Impact on the Stock Market Rally and What Lies Ahead   As we head into Thursday, things are looking a tad precarious, especially in the tech sector.  The Fed, in its wisdom, has decided to hit the pause button on rate hikes for now. But wait, there's more.  They're predicting a couple more hikes on the horizon, though Chairman Jerome Powell did try to add a spoonful of sugar to the news. Interestingly, the market hasn’t quite factored in these future hikes, which might raise a few eyebrows.  But before you get lost in this financial jigsaw, heed the advice of Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors.  Duy advises against reading too much into Powell's comment that a decision on a July hike is yet to be made. According to him, the Fed had its mind made up back in May, and the communication since then has just been a bit, well, 'all over the place.'  So, brace yourself for possible hikes in July and perhaps October or November.  Now, this might sound a bit controversial, but here's a thought: does the Fed really matter to the stock markets at the moment?  That's the question posed by the Evercore ISI team, headed by Julian Emanuel. They propose that Powell and the Fed might not be the proverbial 'Jack' threatening the towering beanstalk of the stock market.  Emanuel and his team seem to believe that the so-called 'momentum market' is far from over.  He points out that even the dizzying heights of 1999 saw a turbulent summer, emphasizing that external factors like the Fed don’t usually spell the end for a momentum market.  But what could potentially hit the brakes on this 'Raging Momentum Bull'?  (article continues below) Sponsored [Fed’s Shocking New Plan to Control Your Money]( The Federal Reserve has a disturbing plan that is getting ready to roll out as soon as July. This is a lot more than printing trillions of dollars or manipulating interest rates. It’s about every checking account, every purchase and every money transfer in America — including yours and mine.  [Click here to discover how to protect your money]( [Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( SPONSORED  🔼 Pay attention, this is worth your time! ☝  (article continues)  Evercore has a handy checklist:  - Complacency, as indicated by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), falling to below 11. Right now, it's at a three-year low of 13. - Overexcitement - Evercore is watching for market bulls measured by the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey to cross the 60% mark. - A lack of breadth in the market - they're looking out for small-cap stocks and banks beginning to trail behind the market. - Record shorts surrendering - bearish positions on S&P 500 E-Mini futures are at an all-time high. If these bears throw in the towel, they’ll be buying those positions, which could push up stocks. - Weekly jobless claims consistently exceeding 300,000.  Evercore's team remains vigilant for these tell-tale signs as the S&P 500 inches closer to the 4,450 mark.  As for what to do with this treasure trove of information, Evercore suggests keeping a positive outlook on the so-called 'momentum masters' - namely Alphabet, Zscaler, and Copa Holdings.  These companies have been performing strongly this year and come highly recommended by the analysts.  At present, U.S. stock futures are leaning towards the downside, with the Nasdaq-100 taking a bit of a hit.  Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has edged up, the dollar has strengthened slightly, and gold and silver have taken a small tumble. Well, nobody ever said the financial world was predictable, did they?  Disclaimer:  The material in this document is for informational purposes based on our proprietary research. It is not an offering, specific recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned or discussed herein.  Any performance results discussed herein represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.  Due to the timing of information presented, any investment performance reflected within this document may be adjusted after the publication and distribution of this material. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, be equal to any corresponding indicated historical performance levels or be suitable for your portfolio.  Any investment results set forth in this document are not net of expenses and execution costs, nor do they account for other relevant trading or investment fees. 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