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[Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( Lightning Strikes Twice: Is This Stock Set for Another Run?  Hi Traders,  Step aside, Thor of Asgard, and make room for Thor Industries (NYSE: THO). A silver lining to the storm cloud of lockdowns and social distancing, this RV industry titan has made quite a splash. The Q3 results may not be music to the ears with sales plunging in high-double digits compared to the previous year. Yet, considering the industry's transition towards a 'new normal', these results have a shiny side. In essence, Thorâs outcomes not only surpassed expectations but also hinted towards a post-pandemic norm with its business performance far exceeding pre-pandemic figures. Underneath this lies a noticeable surge in profitability, suggesting the potential for escalating capital returns and amplified value for shareholders. Amid a rocky quarter, Thor Industries stood tall. As predicted by the RVIA, a considerable shipment decline of nearly 30% did occur. However, the top-line outcomes remained sturdy. The company generated net revenue of $2.93 billion, a 37.1% dip from last year.  But wait, it gets better: it exceeded the consensus estimate by a whopping 390 basis points. European sales shone like a beacon, soaring by 19.7%. Meanwhile, US sales appeared to be a mixed bag with Towables dropping 57% and Motorized decreasing 24.4%. The bright spot of the report commences with the top line. Despite revenue being lower, it's still higher than anticipated and well above 2019 figures. Coupled with a decline in the margin that was less severe than feared, the cash flow remains robust. A 250 basis point contraction in the gross margin and a more than 300 basis point shrinkage in net income margin were observed, yet both were less extreme than anticipated. The margin strength, concentrated in the EU, shows promise of continuity. Impressively, GAAP EPS reached $2.24, doubling the consensus estimate, thanks to the improved margin from two and four years ago. Guidance appears somewhat patchy with a slight reduction in revenue targets but a hike in EPS. The top of the revenue range was trimmed by $0.5 billion or approximately 4.3%, balanced by margin enhancement. This was followed by an uplift in the margin range and the EPS range above consensus.  The new target assumes at least $5.80 in GAAP EPS, surpassing the $5.40 consensus â music to income investors' ears. But wait, there's more! While Thor Industries isnât renowned for sky-high yields, it does offer a solid yield of 2.25%, particularly considering shares trading near $90. The safety net, bolstered by a sturdy balance sheet and healthy cash flows, elevates this yield. Q3 cash flow enabled the company to pay dividends, repurchase $16.6 million shares, and repay more than $250 million in debt. This could enhance an already positive prospect for distribution growth, potentially leading to a larger-than-average increase. Thor, living up to its godly namesake, has augmented distribution for 14 straight years, maintaining a 5% CAGR. Price action seems favourable with the market bottoming out in 2022 and consolidating since. The market bias is tilting upwards, and the post-release action has lifted the stock by 15%. This rise is partly attributed to short convergence, so keep your eyes peeled for some volatility. If the market keeps its positive lean and stays above the 150-day moving average, a new uptrend could form. Analysts might assist with this move, but don't hold your breath for their input until later in the year when evidence of normalization and clearer economic prospects emerge.  Keep on keeping up!  John @ Traders on Trend  (In the next article: 8 Megacaps powered the market's furious rally. What are the implications? Find out below! ð) Sponsored
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SPONSORED When Eight Megacaps Stir a Bull Market: A Curious Tale  Who knew weâd need a bigger boat for our stock market acronyms? Weâve rocked out with FANG and its remixes for a hot minute, but 2023 is calling for an expanded guest list. Enter seven, or even eight, new stars that are playing their own game in the market. Can we find a neat phrase to package Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta (Facebookâs fresh face), Alphabet (Googleâs parent company), Tesla, and maybe Netflix? My creative well's come up dry. Wall Street hasn't had a hit either, though Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research did dish out "MegaCap-8"âno-nonsense, if a bit bland. But let's focus on why this matters: The comeback of these megacap companies is huge. These are the movers and shakers turning the bear market's frown upside down, ushering in a tentative bull market. Notably, these big kids on the block seem to have shrugged off the Federal Reserve's actions. So, can this fresh market story have a happy ending? If yes, grab your shopping cart and load up on stocks. The flip side? These companies might just be in the right place at the right time, benefiting from a blend of supportive narratives that might have reached their peak. Iâm more partial to this second idea. Let's look at some key themes: Quality, darling! The majority of this year's big winners are cash-producing powerhouses with robust balance sheetsâWall Street's definition of "quality" firms.   (article continues below) Sponsored
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(article continues)  With the ominous rumble of recession on the horizon and the panic of bank runs starting in March, it's no wonder quality stocks have taken center stage. Growth? Absolutely! Even with an inevitable economic slowdown, growth-focused stocksâlike our big namesâare a hit. They grow independent of broader economic trends, and investors dig that. AI love. Nvidia is already basking in the glory of the latest AI trends. The others are potential winners, either through hefty AI investments or their cloud services that AI uses. Personally, I think the market has perhaps overvalued this, but itâs been a clear winner this year. Interest rates might be close to their peak. With rates nearing their zenith, stocks that were previously bruised by climbing rates and bond yields seem to be shaking it off. They're not as sensitive when significant further hikes from the Fed seem less likely. Collectively, these favorable conditions have nudged the giants in the Russell Top 50 Mega Cap index to outshine the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies by over 20 percentage points this year. Thatâs a record-breaking feat since the measure's inception in 2002 up until the pandemic. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is eating their dust as other stocks remain static. The previous tie between higher interest rates and lower prices for growth stocks has been severed since Marchâs bank runs. Interest rates? The MegaCap-8 doesn't even bat an eye anymore. The likely cause is the Fed's anticipated peak rates and the expectation of only minor future increases. So, what's the catch for buyers seeking a piece of these world-class companies? Overpaying is the common pitfall. Stocks universally agreed to be fantastic are more likely to come with a hefty price tag than the unloved ones. This is my pet peeve with NvidiaâAI's golden child. Sure, it's probably going to win big, but everyoneâs already banking on that. Another oopsie? The companies might not be what they seem. Take Metaâit's been having a ball this year, but its projected sales per share are still trailing behind last year's figures. Not exactly the calling card of a growth company, right? And Tesla, despite a drop in earnings and sales forecasts this year, has watched its shares skyrocket to 54 times forecast earnings. Go figure!   Disclaimer:  The material in this document is for informational purposes based on our proprietary research. It is not an offering, specific recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned or discussed herein.  Any performance results discussed herein represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.  Due to the timing of information presented, any investment performance reflected within this document may be adjusted after the publication and distribution of this material. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, be equal to any corresponding indicated historical performance levels or be suitable for your portfolio.  Any investment results set forth in this document are not net of expenses and execution costs, nor do they account for other relevant trading or investment fees. Please visit tradersontrend.com/terms for our full Terms and Conditions.   [UNSUBSCRIBEÂ]( TradersOnTrend.com  COE MEDIA.   1126 S Federal Hwy
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