Also, with the markets feeling bullish in the face of recession, what do we make of it? The answer's inside! Picks from the Editor SPONSORED (Newsletter Continues Below) Sponsored
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[Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( Unlocking the Door to Profits: This is One of the Hottest Sectors Right Now  Hi Traders,  Well, butter my biscuits and call me a landlord, housing stocks are partying like it's 1999! We're talking new highs folks, and all the while it seems like the rest of the market's still sporting their bear onesies and hibernating. It's an odd one, isn't it? Logic would dictate that housing should take the first punch in a recession battle, but here we are. So why are these housing stocks acting like teen pop idols, you ask? It's simple: the housing market itself is still flexing its muscles. Property prices are up, there's a glaring lack of inventory, and house hunters are scrambling. I mean, we've all heard the horror stories of bidding wars and mortgage gauntlets, right? This dearth of supply and abundance of demand are driving prices to the penthouse level. Then there's the investor angle. With the rest of the market as stable as a Jenga tower in an earthquake, folks are looking for safe havens. Housing stocks are becoming the superhero capes of the investment world. However, whether these stocks can maintain their superhero status or go the way of kryptonite is still up in the air. That said, if housing stocks keep on this sky-high trajectory, it could be a sign that our long winter bear market nap might be wrapping up. I mean, check out these stats: SPDR Homebuilders ETF? Up 18.5% year-to-date. iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF? Up by 26%. And the tech-centric housing names? Well, they're basically rocket ships! Take digital real estate firm Compass and iBuying leader Opendoor. They're up 70% and 104%, respectively. Redfin, another digital listings champ, has seen an almost 150% increase. These are the kind of numbers that make Wall Street analysts do a happy dance! You might be thinking, "Wait, are we talking about the same housing market that I've been hearing is about to crash and burn?" Well, yes and no. Sure, if you only follow the scare-tactic headlines, it seems like we're heading for a housing apocalypse. But the data sings a different tune. We're actually in the early stages of a robust recovery. 2022 was a bit of a rough ride for the housing market, no doubt about it. With mortgage rates higher than a giraffe's breakfast, a sluggish economy, skyrocketing home prices, and a growing belief that we're heading for a price plummet, the housing market took a hit. But 2023, well, that's a different story altogether. Mortgage rates? Down. The economy? Stabilizing. Home prices? Not shooting up like a bottle rocket anymore. And the fear of a housing market crash? Fading faster than my New Year's resolutions. These market shifts have caused a ripple effect, pulling the housing market back into the black. Need more proof? The NAHB Homebuilders Confidence Index just hit 50 in April, marking the fifth month in a row of rebounding confidence. If we take a trip down memory lane, this magic number of 50 has historically marked the start of a housing bull market. It seems we've just flipped the switch from bear to bull, and historically, this usually isn't a false alarm. All things considered, it looks like the stage is set for a renaissance in the housing market. Lower mortgage rates and stabilizing home prices are like the starter pistol for pent-up homebuying demand. It's this revitalized demand that's going to fire up the housing market's engines. So, will housing stocks continue to sizzle like a summer barbecue? From where I'm standing, it sure looks like it. And the tech-focused housing stocks that have already doubled this year? They might just be gearing up for round two. In conclusion, we might be knee-deep in a bear market, but that doesn't mean there aren't hot pockets of opportunity. Despite the economic roller coaster, the housing market is looking like a pretty appealing ride. So, put on your investment hats, folks. This could be one wild ride.  Keep on keeping up!  John @ Traders on Trend  (In the next article: Markets are showing a lot of conflicting signals. What should we make of it? Find out below! ð) Sponsored
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SPONSORED Understanding the Contradictory Signals of the Stock Market  So, what's happening? Well, since early April, the SPX has been doing a tightrope walk between 4050 and 4200. In the last fortnight, the rope got even tighter, with SPX hugging the 20-day moving average so closely you'd think they were besties. And both sides of the trading range? Still waiting to be tested. High drama, folks. High drama. What does all this mean? Well, our internal indicators are getting a workout, swinging from positive to negative like they're at a jazzercise class (and boy, do they love that breadth!). We also have an even larger trading range on the scene, which has been hanging around since the start of the year, ranging from around 3800 to 4200. It's like a constant game of tug-of-war without a winner. What could help break SPX out of this range? We're all eagerly watching for some kind of catalyst, but so far, it's like waiting for a sneeze that won't come. Even the debt ceiling drama is fizzling out, as it seems both sides are open to playing nice. Let's see if that holds. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) buy signal is technically still running, but it's getting a bit long in the tooth, having been generated back in mid-March. The target for SPX to reach its +4Ï "modified Bollinger Band" hasn't been hit yet, so it's probably time to cut our losses, pocket any profits, and wait for the next signal.  (article continues below) Sponsored
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(article continues)  The equity-only put-call ratios have been a tad inconsistent recently, but both are still flashing sell signals. As long as these ratios keep rising, they'll remain on sell signals. So, essentially, they're the market's version of a stubborn teenager refusing to clean their room. Some heavily negative days led to an oversold situation on May 16th. But the strong rally and positive breadth on May 17th brought the buy signals back. We generally wait for a two-day confirmation of any signal change before jumping in, just to avoid any potential whiplash. Meanwhile, new 52-week lows on the NYSE have been beating out the new highs. And although there haven't been a huge number of new lows, there have been enough to keep this indicator in the negative. On the flip side, the volatility space remains pretty optimistic about stocks. The VIX has been playing it cool, hovering around 17, keeping the "spike peak" and trend of VIX buy signals active. A VIX surge over 21.33 could throw a wrench in the works, but that doesn't seem likely just yet. The volatility derivatives also appear moderately bullish. We'll be watching the relationship between June and July for any negative changes, like a jealous sibling rivalry. If June VIX futures price overtakes July's, that'd be bad news for stocks. But as it stands, July is ahead, which gives a bullish thumbs-up. The upward slope of the VIX futures term structure through to October and the same positive trend in the CBOE Volatility Indices is like a double cherry on our bullish sundae. So, to wrap it all up, the SPX trading range has us sitting on our hands when it comes to a "core" position. If a breakout happens, it could spark momentum in that direction. But with the market playing tricks on us with a couple of false upside breakouts in the last 18 months, we're not holding our breath. We'll keep trading signals from our individual internal indicators as they pop up. If you're feeling a bit daring, you might try trading the range by buying SPY puts when SPX nears 4200 and buying SPY calls when it nears 4050. Good luck, traders! We're all gonna need it.  Disclaimer:  The material in this document is for informational purposes based on our proprietary research. It is not an offering, specific recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned or discussed herein.  Any performance results discussed herein represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.  Due to the timing of information presented, any investment performance reflected within this document may be adjusted after the publication and distribution of this material. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, be equal to any corresponding indicated historical performance levels or be suitable for your portfolio.  Any investment results set forth in this document are not net of expenses and execution costs, nor do they account for other relevant trading or investment fees. Please visit tradersontrend.com/terms for our full Terms and Conditions.   [UNSUBSCRIBEÂ]( TradersOnTrend.com  COE MEDIA.   1126 S Federal Hwy
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