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[Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( The Growing Influence of Luxury Goods and Experiences in the American Dream  Hi Traders,  A seismic shift in consumer spending has been happening right under our noses, and I'll be frank with you, I think this shift is not just a fleeting trend, but here for the long haul. And here's the kicker: there's a way for you to make money from it. Did you know that the luxury industry - think swanky cars, five-star hotels, and the latest Gucci handbags - saw a whopping 20% growth last year? Yeah, I kid you not. Now, you might be scratching your head and wondering, "Wait a minute! Didn't we have a turbulent year with the Fed going all gung-ho with rate hikes, inflation behaving like a rebellious teenager, and companies like Meta and Netflix announcing job cuts?" Well, you're spot on, and yet, luxury spending surged 20%. I know, it's enough to make your head spin. Now, how did that happen? Why did that happen? We asked ourselves the same questions, and our head-scratching led us to a theory we've christened the "Luxury Shift". So, what's this all about? In layman's terms, it appears that instead of investing in homes, the younger folks are splurging on luxury goods and experiences. It might sound odd, but hang in there with me. You see, back in the day - the '70s, '80s, and '90s, to be precise - the quintessential American Dream was all about going to college, landing a good job, saving up, and then investing in a nice, cozy home with a white picket fence. Sounds idyllic, right? But here's the thing: that dream is out of reach for most people today. Why? Simple. Homes back then were affordable. But today, they're as elusive as a unicorn for most. A recent survey by Zillow revealed that over half of Gen Zers and Millennials feel like they'd have to win the lottery to afford a home. Despite yearning for a home of their own, the astronomical prices are a major roadblock. And while everyone's been crying wolf about a housing market crash, home prices have been on a relentless upward march. Throw in soaring interest rates, and affordability continues its nosedive. Faced with this seemingly hopeless situation, what are the Gen Zers and Millennials doing? Well, they're shrugging it off and redefining the American Dream. Years of saving from their paychecks have left these younger generations with a tidy sum, originally meant for a home down payment. But with that dream home remaining a mirage, they're using that money to indulge in luxury goods and experiences instead. And guess what? This shift is why luxury spending skyrocketed last year, despite a stock market crash and a technical recession. Wall Street has been quick to spot this trend. Luxury brands like Ferrari, Richemont, and LVMH have been on a tear, with their stock prices shooting up by over 55% in the past year, while the S&P 500 remained flat. Now, here's the thing about luxury goods. They can be quite addictive. Also, the rise of social media has led to people constantly comparing their lives, with success often measured in 5-star holidays, designer handbags, and private jet rides. It's a bit of a warped reality, but hey, I'm not here to pass judgment. My goal is to help you profit from this significant shift in consumer spending because I firmly believe this trend isn't going away anytime soon. Yes, stocks of Ferrari, Richemont, and LVMH are currently expensive, but with their growth rates also reaching new heights, it seems like their winning streaks aren't winding down just yet. This trend is reshaping the very definition of success for younger generations. The white picket fence dream is being swapped out for a taste of the luxury lifestyle. And why not? If you can't land that dream house, might as well spend your hard-earned money on a gleaming new Ferrari or a Louis Vuitton bag that turns heads, right? And let's not forget the experiences! Who wouldn't swap a down payment on a house for an extravagant European vacation, complete with the finest wines and the most Instagrammable views? It's not just about material goods. These new-age spenders are after the full luxury experience, from dining in Michelin-starred restaurants to soaking in the culture at renowned museums. It's about living life to the fullest, even if it means bending the norms a bit. This shift has a ripple effect too. So, whatâs the final word on this? If this shift in spending patterns continues, and I believe it will, we'll be seeing a different landscape in the consumer market. Companies like Ferrari, Richemont, and LVMH might be leading the pack now, but keep an eye out for others that are poised to capitalize on this trend. More demand for luxury goods and experiences means more opportunities for companies catering to this market, leading to potential job creation in these sectors. The economy might just find a new way to balance itself out, and who knows, this might just become the new normal.  Keep on keeping up!  John @ Traders on Trend  (In the next article: Looks like we can avert a recession. How? Find out below! ð) Sponsored
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SPONSORED Defying the Downturn: The Case for Avoiding a Recession  Ready for a game of "what ifâ? What if, and bear with me here, we swerve around the looming recession? Or let's say we do take a hit, but it's more of a bruise rather than a knockout punch? If this scenario pans out, savvy investors should be rummaging through today's market, sniffing out those top-tier stocks ready to take flight once it's clear we've sidestepped the doomsday recession. Let's rewind a bit. Picture this: an investor in a tunnel, focused only on the light at the end, oblivious to anything else. Does that ring a bell? This tunnel vision is one of the most frequent culprits behind financial losses. We dive headfirst into market analysis, form our opinion about probable outcomes, and then cling to that narrative like a lifeline, no matter the storm around us. Now, let's be honest. The heavyweights of investing don't exactly follow this playbook. Instead of cherry-picking data that backs their market predictions, they're more like treasure hunters, constantly seeking fresh information that might challenge their assumptions. They're asking, "How could I be wrong?" rather than "How can I prove I'm right?" Now, if you've been following my rants, you'd know I've been a bit of a bear lately. And while there's a treasure trove of data backing my gloomy outlook, there are many smart cookies out there who don't share my perspective. So, what's got them convinced we're not hurtling towards a recession? Well, it's something called a yield curve inversion. Remember that term from our previous chats? It's when shorter-term interest rates climb over their longer-term cousins. Now, the eggheads at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco tell us that an inverted yield curve has been a harbinger of every U.S. recession since 1950, with 1966 being the only wolf in sheep's clothing. Sure, an inverted yield curve is not something to be taken lightly. But, what exactly made 1966 play hard to get? And could we see a similar scenario unfolding in 2023?  (article continues below) Sponsored
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(article continues)  To answer that, let's take a trip down memory lane to the swinging sixties. Some key economic trends catch the eye: robust government spending, buoyant consumer spending, healthy business investment, and solid foreign investment. Typically, these activities take a nosedive during a recession. But in '66, they danced to a different tune. What made 1966 a standout year? It was a combination of factors: heavy government spending (thanks, Vietnam War), low unemployment, a strong economy, robust consumer spending, healthy business investment (fueled by an abundance of corporate profits), and a steady influx of foreign direct investments. These factors not only helped the U.S. dodge a recession bullet, but also propelled the U.S. economy to grow by a staggering 6.6% that year, followed by another 2.7% the next year. Fast forward to 2023, and we find ourselves asking: is history about to repeat itself? The 2023 economy is eerily reminiscent of 1966: Big government spending, strong job growth, robust consumer spending, ample business investment, and a healthy amount of foreign direct investment. And guess what? They're all on the rise. Let's check out some numbers, shall we? Since the end of 2020, U.S. government consumption spending has hiked 13%, business formations are up 16%, foreign direct investment has increased by more than half a trillion dollars (an 11% rise), private domestic investment has doubled, and the U.S. economy has added 13 million net jobsâa hefty 9% increase. Now, that's not just a sprinkle of pixie dust; that's a full-blown Tinkerbell! One new player on the field that's giving the U.S. economy a shot in the arm is the American manufacturing "renaissance." As a recent Wall Street Journal headline proclaimed, "America Is Back in the Factory Business." And let me tell you, that headline doesn't lie. This resurgence isn't limited to just any sectorâit's being spearheaded by the electric vehicles industry. Major U.S. and foreign auto manufacturers are now either operating or building spanking new EV factories right here in the U.S. Most of these shiny new facilities are cropping up in the South, all within a 300-mile radius of Chattanooga, Tennessee. It's like they're playing a game of "how close can you get to Chattanooga without actually being in Chattanooga?" The Wall Street Journal has also chipped in with some numbers to back up the manufacturing and EV boom. Construction spending related to manufacturing hit a record $108 billion in 2022. And that's not just a numberâit's more than what was spent on building schools, healthcare centers, or office buildings. New factories are popping up everywhere, from bustling city centers to quiet rural fields, from sun-drenched desert flats to picturesque surf towns. And let's not forget the significant contribution from the high-tech fields of electric-vehicle batteries and semiconductors, which are receiving a hefty boost from billions of dollars in government incentives. This massive wave of investment is like a lifebuoy, making a sustained economic downturn less likely. And it's not just the electric vehicles sector that's holding the fort. The housing market is also flexing its muscles. The slightest dip in mortgage rates or home prices sends buyers swarming into the market like bees to honey. Even though the pace of annual home sales stumbled 35% from its January 2022 peak, it has bounced back about 10% since the start of the year. Home prices are also on the rebound and are just 9% shy of the all-time high they hit a year ago. And let's not overlook the new home sales, which are leading the recovery. This prompted my colleague to quip, "If there's a recession coming, somebody forgot to tell the home builders!" Many of them are hitting new all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the economic whispers of a downturn. What's likely to happen next is that people will start feeling better about the future. They'll slowly wade back into the stock market, first dipping their toes, then their feet, then their legs. Business investment will pick up, the news flow will turn positive, and overall sentiment will improve. Even if we do enter a statistical recession this year, it's unlikely to put a serious dent in the U.S. economy or corporate profits. This means the current "non-recession" is creating a prime buying opportunity in the stock market. To wrap up our ârecessionâ talk, it's crucial to keep an eye on both the warning signs and the positive indicators. Just like in 1966, indicators like the yield curve inversion aren't foolproof, and there's plenty of data pointing toward U.S. economic strength. So, 2023, meet 1966. Sure, you wouldn't mistake 2023 for 1966 any more than you'd confuse Taylor Swift with Janis Joplin (though wouldn't that be a hoot?). But, economically speaking, these two years share an uncanny resemblance. The only time in the past 72 years when a yield curve inversion didn't signal a recession was in 1966. And as we stand here in 2023, we might just be looking at the second time around. Who knows, we might just pull a 1966, and have everyone scratching their heads in wonder!  Disclaimer:  The material in this document is for informational purposes based on our proprietary research. It is not an offering, specific recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned or discussed herein.  Any performance results discussed herein represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.  Due to the timing of information presented, any investment performance reflected within this document may be adjusted after the publication and distribution of this material. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, be equal to any corresponding indicated historical performance levels or be suitable for your portfolio.  Any investment results set forth in this document are not net of expenses and execution costs, nor do they account for other relevant trading or investment fees. 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