The Case For $1 Million Bitcoin and Beyond

Is this what hyperbitcoinization feels like? September 24, 2021 [UNSUBSCRIBE]( | [WEBSITE](Put_Website_ [Altucher Confidential] “Bitcoin could hit $10 million, become the new gold standard, and solve the world’s debt crisis in one fell swoop.” [Bitcoin to the face] CAPTION: Artwork by Daniel Krawisz The Case For $1 Million Bitcoin and Beyond By Chris Campbell Discover How to Earn Real Estate Income from the Safety of Your Own Home Looking for a way to create real estate cash flow without having to leave your house? With over a dozen “lazy” real estate secrets ready for you to take advantage of today, [this new book]( will help you discover how to earn monthly income from real estate from the comfort of your home… and without all the hassles of being a landlord. [Click here to find out how to claim your access.]( VC Chamath Palihapitiya, an early bitcoin evangelist and former Facebook executive, made the case in 2017 for $1 million bitcoin in the next 20 years. Wences Casares, CEO of bitcoin wallet Xapo and member of Paypal’s board of directors also said in 2017 bitcoin could hit $1 million. But he said it would happen in 5-10 years. During the speech where he gave this prediction, Casares said: “The biggest mistake [would] be to buy more bitcoin than you can afford to lose. The biggest mistake is [also] not to own any bitcoin.” Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager recently said $1 million could happen in five years. Harold Burger, an AI lead at Selligent Cortex has concluded that bitcoin could hit $1 million no earlier than 2028 and no later than 2037. Of course, the ever-bullish John McAfee was the first to publicly make the prediction. In 2017, at first he said $500,000 by 2020. And then he quickly doubled down to $1 million adding, “if not, I will eat my dick on national television.” In 2020, he reneged on his promise when bitcoin barely made it past $30,000. $1 Million is Cool. $10 Million is Cooler. To the average Joe, $1 million bitcoin sounds pretty insane. But asset management firm Lucid Investment Strategies took it even further, making the most bullish call of all: Bitcoin could hit $10 million, become the new gold standard, and solve the world’s debt crisis in one fell swoop. The ratio of global debt to wealth, says the firm, has gone so completely off the rails it’s created a “grotesque imbalance” of wealth inequality. In 2018, total world debt was an estimated $247 trillion compared to $317 trillion in total world wealth. In the past two decades, debt has shot up by a whopping 394%... while wealth has climbed only 133%. For this reason, the strategists at Lucid posit, the status quo is unsustainable and the world economy must find a solution to address this growing debt crisis. Thus, the five most likely strategies to come are as follows: 1.] Adoption of a gold standard 2.] Creation of a new commodity/currency basket 3.] Rapid economic growth 4.] Default on sovereign debt 5.] Mass investment in bitcoin Granted, Lucid’s strategists say #5 is hardly the most probable scenario. But they do say it’s the best possible alternative. That’s because, they say, it would provide a “permanent fix” to the debt crisis while also limiting the upheaval and consequent economic damage that would come with the other options. And it would take bitcoin to $10 million. Why $10 million? In response, Lucid President and Chief Investment Officer Dean Tyler Jenks and Executive Vice President Leah Wald wrote: “At that level, Bitcoin would provide a sufficient reserve to alleviate the world debt burden. Bitcoin would be worth between $180 trillion and $210 trillion (depending on when that price was reached). Assuming world debt had reached $500 trillion at that time, remember it has grown by 394% over the past 20 years, Bitcoin would represent a 40% reserve against the debt.” They added: “[I]s this feasible? Probably not. But we believe it is possible and we believe it offers the greatest benefits with the least collateral damage to the least number of individuals, corporations, institutions, and countries. Most importantly, it would provide a permanent fix, a quality that none of the other solutions provide.” --------------------------------------------------------------- [Recommended Article] [Survive the Age of Exponential Change | Laissez Faire Today]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Hyperbitcoinization This scenario, by the way, is not a new idea. It’s what bitcoiners have long called “hyperbitcoinization.” “Hyperbitcoinization,” bitcoiner Daniel Krawisz wrote back in 2014, “is a voluntary transition from an inferior currency to a superior one, and its adoption is a series of individual acts of entrepreneurship rather than a single monopolist that games the system.” Krawisz makes two points which echo Lucid’s thesis: 1. A hyperbitcoinization event will be much quicker than a hyperinflation event. I have two reasons for this. First, the government will have a much greater difficulty preventing bitcoins from entering the country due to the impotency of capital controls upon it. Second, hyperinflation is inherently an attempt to fool people, whereas hyperbitcoinization is quite regular and predictable (at least by comparison). Therefore people will more easily see that they had better switch over. Thus, as fast as hyperinflation is, hyperbitcoinization will be even faster. It will happen much faster than you expect. 2.] Hyperbitcoinization will not disrupt the economy to nearly the same degree as hyperinflation. The currency is the instrument of the division of labor, and hyperinflation makes it unreliable and forces people to use worse alternatives. In a hyperbitcoinization event, people switch from a fundamentally inferior currency to a superior one, whereas in a hyperinflationary event people will only switch to a new currency once the old currency becomes worse than the next best alternative, such as gold or detergent. Hyperbitcoinization should be accompanied by a rapid improvement in productivity and wealth. The Case For $1 Million Keep in mind. For bitcoin to hit 1 million dollars, its market cap must reach $20 trillion -- twice as big as gold. Possible? Well, according to the pundits we’ve heard from so far, the odds are non-zero. For perspective, the high-end estimate of all the money in the world is just over $1 quadrillion. That includes all investments, derivatives and cryptocurrencies. If 1.75% of that got sucked into bitcoin, we’d hit $1 million per bitcoin. Meaning, if everyone had a little less than 2% of their assets in bitcoin, $1 million bitcoin would be a breeze. But there’s also the stock-to-flow ratio to consider. Check. Check. Check. Passed all tests. [Prototype]( is a blueprint of a prototype designed by a group of engineers at Washington. The prototype was recently put to test and it “Passed all Tests”. The engineers say it can deliver speeds never seen before in a gadget of its size More importantly, it can help deliver a small fortune to early investors. The prototype is just one small part of [a massive project]( will disrupt a $2 trillion industry. As the project is spearheaded by the world’s second-richest man... billions of dollars are being pumped into it. To see how this project could help turn your nest egg into a small fortune [Click here.]( One Ratio to Rule Them All The stock-to-flow ratio tells you how scarce something is by how long it takes to produce the existing stock. It’s become increasingly popular in bitcoinland. Mainly because it’s lined up quite well with bitcoin’s price movement over the years. Here’s how it works… “Stock” is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves. “Flow” is the yearly production. If you divide the stock by the flow, you get the stock-to-flow ratio. Gold and bitcoin differ from commodities like copper, zinc, nickel, and brass because they have a high stock-to-flow ratio. Historically, gold has the highest. From 1900 to 2010, the average S2F ratio of gold was 66. That means it would take 66 years to produce the existing stock based on current production. [Incrementum Chart] Most commodities usually have a S2F at around 1. This is to be expected. For consumables, existing stock is typically equal or lower than yearly production. When it comes to commodities, it’s difficult for them to rise way above 1. Whenever someone hoards them or there’s a disruption, prices rise, production rises, and the price falls. A healthy market adapts. But when something is provably scarce, like gold, it’s a completely different story. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Recommended Article] [The Big Lie About China | Gilder's Daily Prophecy]( --------------------------------------------------------------- “$100,000 By Christmas” A popular analyst who goes by the moniker “Plan B” is known for his stock-to-flow bitcoin modeling. He and many other S2F proponents insist that, if the models are correct, $1 million bitcoin is possible… probably sooner than even many bitcoin bulls believe. Moreover, his models suggest we could see $100,000 sooner than later: “Bitcoin stock-to-flow model predicts $100K by Christmas,” Plan B tweeted recently. Bitcoin currently has a stock-to-flow ratio around 25. “This,” says Plan B, “places bitcoin in the monetary goods category like silver and gold.” As you probably know, the supply of bitcoin is fixed at 21 million. New bitcoins are created every 10 minutes (on average) with each new block. And a block is just a timestamped ledger of transactions. When a miner solves a complex math problem (to put it simply), the miner has the opportunity to compile and timestamp the newest block onto the blockchain and win a reward. The first transaction in each block, called the coinbase, contains the reward. This reward is made up of transaction fees from transactions in that block and the newly created coins, called subsidies. The subsidy began at 50 bitcoins per block and is halved every 210,000 blocks -- typically around every four years. With each “halving” of bitcoin’s subsidy, the S2F ratio goes up, making bitcoin more scarce. But, you might be thinking: Given it’s all digital, is bitcoin really scarce? Good question. “Unforgeable Costliness” The common definition of scarcity is usually something like, “the condition of being scarce.” Famous cryptographer and early cypherpunk Nick Szabo has a more useful definition of scarcity: “unforgeable costliness.” Bitcoiners insist that bitcoin is scarce because it’s the purest form of unforgeable costliness. Why? Simply because it costs a lot of electricity to produce new bitcoins. Therefore, producing bitcoins is not easy to fake. Unlike fiat, you can’t just print trillions of new bitcoins out of thin air. Furthermore, although it’s relatively difficult to fake $100 bills, it’s quadrillions of times harder to fake a bitcoin than it is a $100 bill. Bitcoiners therefore see bitcoin as a natural safe haven from the funny money economics plaguing our world. That’s why they believe that $1 million bitcoin is not only possible; with each year of monetary malfeasance it becomes more and more likely. Plan B puts it like this: “People ask me where all the money needed for $1trn bitcoin market value would come from. My answer: silver, gold, countries with negative interest rate (Europe, Japan, US soon), countries with predatory governments (Venezuela, China, Iran, Turkey etc), billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors discovering the best performing asset of last 10 yrs.” Again, if less than 2% of all of the money in the world made its way into bitcoin, $1 million is on the low-end. None of this is to say it will happen. It’s just to show you that bitcoin is one of the greatest -- if not the greatest -- asymmetric bets in the world. Owning none is far more risky than owning some. Or, as Wences Casares put it, “The biggest mistake [would] be to buy more bitcoin than you can afford to lose. The biggest mistake is [also] not to own any bitcoin.” Until tomorrow, [Chris Campbell] Chris Campbell For Altucher Confidential Man who Predicted 2008 Collapse Makes SHOCKING new Prediction [Jim Rickards]( helped save America from a $1.3 trillion banking crisis… He predicted the Great Recession of 2008… He predicted Trump’s 2016 election… But now he’s issuing his most urgent warning yet. If he’s right again, God bless America… [Click here to see all the details of his analysis and decide for yourself if you should protect your family and your wealth.]( Subsribe To My Podcast [The James Altucher Show]( [The James Altucher Website]( [Subscribe Via Text]( [Subscribe With YouTube]( [Subscribe On Messenger]( [Subscribe With iTunes]( [Connected on LinkedIn]( Add AltucherConfidential@email.threefounderspublishing.com to your address book: [Whitelist Us]( Join the conversation! 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