Prepare for a Very Cold Winter

This isn’t just about natural gas or energy generally. It’s about everything. [Gilder's Daily Prophecy] September 21, 2021 [UNSUBSCRIBE]( | [ARCHIVES]( Altucher: “I’m Betting This will Change Your Life.” [James Altucher]( want you to know: it doesn’t have to be hard to make money on Wall Street. In fact, I’m betting that when you [click this link]( in just 30 seconds you’ll discover a secret that will change the way you think about investing forever. [See it now,]( while you still can… Prepare for a Very Cold Winter [Jeffrey Tucker]Dear Daily Prophecy Reader, The economy is beset by chronic supply-chain problems. The worker shortage is intensifying. Restaurants and hotels are still going bankrupt. Travel is falling and airlines are under financial pressure. The price of everything is rising for both consumers and producers. Public anger has never been higher. Still, there is one piece of bad news that could make everything else seem not so terrible. The problem is natural gas for heating this winter. Europe is in a near panic over soaring prices and falling supplies. Russia is rushing to complete a pipeline to help the supply problem. The futures price is up dramatically. And this is happening even though we are out of season. Thus the alarm. [$5 per million British thermal units] The price pinch in Europe is certainly headed to the US in the coming few months. Higher prices for natural gas turn into a massive human tragedy once the poor have to choose between heating their homes in winter or feeding their kids. Already, people are scrambling for explanations of how this has happened to us. The NASDAQ [explanation]( relies almost exclusively on weather-related explanations. Slow Restoration of Hurricane-Affected Operations: A large part of natural gas’ recent bull run has been supported by hurricane-curtailed supplies. Ida — the year’s ninth named storm — made landfall in Louisiana on Aug 29, resulting in copious rainfall, catastrophic wind damage, and power losses for hundreds of thousands of customers. This was followed by Hurricane Nicholas earlier this month. In particular, the extreme weather events significantly disrupted natural gas production from the Gulf of Mexico and some of it remains offline. Late-Season Hot Weather: Domestic usage has been strong over the 2021 summer months as record-breaking heat in most parts of the country led to a higher power burn (or cooling demand) for the fuel. Besides, the latest models are anticipating lofty temperatures for the remainder of September, which will keep on driving the commodity’s consumption above normal levels. Strong LNG Export Demand: Shipments of liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) for export from the United States have been robust for months on the back of environmental reasons and higher prices of the super-chilled fuel elsewhere…Most analysts believe that deliveries appear poised for further gains this year on surging consumption in Europe, Asia and Latin America, especially as we head into winter. The circumstances are particularly dire in Europe where gas supply is running low with the need for steady refill from U.S. ahead of the heating season. Pre-Winter Supply Crunch: As a result of all the above-mentioned factors, current natural gas stocks — at 3,006 billion cubic feet (Bcf) — are 595 Bcf (16.5%) below the 2020 level at this time and 231 Bcf (7.1%) less than the five-year (2016-2020) average. In fact, working gas in U.S. storage currently sits at its lowest level for this time of year since 2018 going into the peak demand season. Is this a ticking time bomb to another financial collapse? If you own stocks, you may want to cash out immediately. And if you hold dollars, you need to take a look at the chart above. Because, according to one of America's most respected economists, the data in this chart signals a possible COLLAPSE ahead for the dollar. What he revealed is not pretty. [But you still need to hear it -- follow this link for details.]( More Inflation Denial There is surely truth in all of this. At the same time, there is a reason to get highly suspicious when pundits rely on weather-based explanations of economic dislocations. The Soviet Union did this for decades. No bread? It’s because of a drought that ruined the wheat crop. No replacement parts for tractors? It’s because an unusual cold made supply routes impassable and so on. Markets specialize in accommodating changes in demand with changes in supply. No question that the market is responding in advance of lower-than-needed supply given the rise in demand all over the East, as Nasdaq says. And to be sure, the big war on fossil fuels is taking its toll. One would think that the crazy activists, who have for 20 years been trying to restrict supplies would worry about the effects on the poor. Do they really want workers and peasants to freeze in their homes this winter? One might suppose not. But if we have learned anything over the last 19 months, it is that ideology overrides human empathy. People consumed by a cause are capable of astonishing and conscious blindness toward mass human suffering. The unmentioned specter in all of this is our own enemy: price inflation. Even after world historic levels of monetary expansion, both in the US and the UK, and after a full six months of creeping price problems in nearly every sector of life, we still have a persistent tendency to deny the reality of inflation. We’ve seen this tendency in the commentary on every sector. Food, energy, houses, steel, aluminum, plywood, clothing, technology, rents — you name it — they all seem to have some other explanation, besides the basic one that there is far too much money in the world chasing far too few goods and services. Hence prices rise. A Turning Point Low energy prices have been a feature of the long and slow recovery since 2008, something everyone has taken for granted. It has been one of the redeeming features of economic life around the world. These days seem to be at an end, and we could be on the verge of discovering all the ways in which those low prices provide public benefit. Truth is that this isn’t just about natural gas or energy generally. It’s about everything. Have you noticed a reduction in the talk about transitory inflation? Right. Now we see more chit chat coming out of The Fed that this is starting to feel like the new normal. The talk of transitory inflation is much less “two weeks to flatten the curve” or “100 days of masking.” It is what they say to keep you calm until the reality dawns later. It is a method of crowd control. If you are looking to make money off the coming natural gas shortage, have a look at energy stocks. If you are looking to protect yourself and stay warm this winter, an even smarter move might be to stock up on firewood. Regards, [Jeffrey Tucker] Jeffrey Tucker P.S. One day the market is up, the next it is plummeting, leaving investors terrified about what is going to happen to their portfolios. I believe I may have [the answer]( and my reason may shock you. It doesn’t have anything to do with the coronavirus, Fed interventions or even the economic shutdown. [Click here to watch a brief video I recorded about this scandal](. 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