The Top Prophecy of the Week

Looking at 2020: “The Year of Doomsday Modeling” [Gilder's Daily Prophecy] January 30, 2021 [UNSUBSCRIBE]( | [ARCHIVES]( A $4,005 “Credit” Has Been Applied To Your Account Congrats! A $4,005 “credit” has been applied to your account. [Please click here to learn how to claim it.]( [Warning] Do you enjoy receiving Gilder's Daily Prophecy? Please [Click Here Now]( so we know to continue sending you Gilder's Daily Prophecy for free! Looking at 2020: “The Year of Doomsday Modeling” [George Gilder]Dear Daily Prophecy Reader, Below is a report on the Swedish experience during the pandemic. Sweden did not lockdown at all until November. The study offers fascinating data showing that 2020 was unremarkable compared to earlier years. Combined with a drastic drop in mortality in 2019, the Swedes — without lockdown, and adjusted for changing age and population — ended up with a typical mortality year in 2020. [Could a strange code like this save your retirement?]( Scientists and researchers from lots of different disciplines produced lots of theories and mathematical models intended to explain and predict COVID and its impact. Models that in most cases eventually proved to vastly inflate and overestimate the risks and resulting deaths. It appears that most of these scientists fell in love with their own models and theories, and thus failed to take real world data and reality into account. Recall all the doomsday models predicting massive deaths already during the “First Wave”...? E.g. the one by [Professor Ferguson]( Imperial College, or [this one from Belgium,]( predicting, in line with the predictions of Ferguson’s model, a median of 96,000 deaths in Sweden by May 2020 (!), unless strict Lockdowns were immediately put in place…? 2020 was also the year when the media declared Sweden as a failed state, the [“World’s Cautionary Tale,”]( predicting massive deaths unless Sweden, like almost everybody else, fully LockedDown. And 2020 was the year when a lot of economies, public as well as private, businesses and entire industries went bust, because the response governments took to mitigate the pandemic. During 2020 it also became obvious that True Leadership, of the kind demonstrated e.g. by Churchill during WW2, has pretty much vanished from politics, media as well as from society in general — amplifying fear and panic is the last thing you should do as a Leader during a crisis. Also, 2020 was also the year when China smashed the western world so hard that it will take decades for the west to recover, if indeed ever. And finally, 2020 was the year when we stopped living due to fear of dying. So, how deadly did the Pandemic turn out to be ? How many “Excess Deaths” was there…? How proportional were the responses of the various governments? Trump’s Final Gift To America [America split with Trump]( There’s a little-known way Trump could – one day – have his revenge. It involves a Federal Ruling he oversaw in the final year of his Presidency that could change America forever… unleash an estimated $15.1 trillion in new wealth… and create countless ways for everyday Americans to benefit. What is this little understood decision? And how will it impact you? [All the important facts are here.]( The Swedish Outcome Now, mid January 2021, we have the Swedish result (still preliminary, but perfectly good for overall conclusions): about 98000 deaths for *the full year* – not 96000 by May 2020 (!) , as the models mentioned above (and many others) predicted. Still, 98000 yearly deaths is clearly more than the normal ~92000 (2019 with it’s 88766 deaths was a true outlier!) of the past few years, so clearly something has been going on 2020. Let’s see if we can figure out what’s been going on, and how much of an outlier 2020 really was…? Can we trust the preliminary data? But first, let’s briefly discuss the reliability of SCB’s preliminary death data: I’ve got a huge number of comments over the past year tha: “you can’t trust the prel. data, there is a huge lag, the numbers will increase a lot by subsequent reporting updates, just wait two more weeks and you’ll see…!” I’m not sure on what these commentators base their opinions on, but mine are based on the data, as well as on what [SCB themselves state about the data lag and it’s expected length and the effect of later updates:]( “Statistik för tvÃ¥ veckor tillbaka i tiden väntas inte förändras i nÃ¥gon större utsträckning.” For the non-Swedish speakers, I’m sure Google Translate can help out in making sense of the above quote. To see that the statement by SCB holds, let’s look at the number of monthly deaths per reporting date, and see how the data changes from one report to next, and then stabilizes, goes flat, when three weeks have passed since the first report after month end for that month: look at the graph below. Take any plot representing a single month e.g. the red plot representing April, and observe how the plot goes basically flat on the third reporting occasion after the month has ended. So, data three or more weeks back did not change substantially, exactly as SCB stated in their press release above. If we for each month calculate the difference between deaths the latest reporting date (Jan. 18th), and deaths the third weekly report after end of each individual month, the average monthly update (discounting December, which is most likely have a larger update somewhat later than the “normal” three weeks) is 75 deaths. Now, since December and January are holiday months with both Christmas and New Year’s, the data reporting lag is somewhat larger for December data than for the other months. But for all practical purposes, for an overall result on whether 2020 was the contemporary equivalent to the Spanish Flu, it doesn’t really matter if the December deaths eventually, when the official 2020 numbers are released, are going to be 100 or even 1,000 larger than what was published today. That possible increase will not change the overall 2020 outcome in any significant way. I’m not after Rocket Science Precision to the n:th decimal in these analyses, and more importantly there are way more significant sources of massive uncertainty in any calculations on Swedish mortality than the possible data lag in SCB’s preliminary death data. [Gilder: "$16.8 Trillion 'Reboot' Will Save World Economy..."]( Regards, [George Gilder] George Gilder Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy P.S. The central banks have opened up a Pandora’s box of opportunity. My colleague Graham Summers has discovered what he believes to be a flaw in the currency markets. With this breakthrough, his research might explain why some people have the potential to get richer every time the Fed takes action. No one has ever seen a strategy quite like this for income generation before. [You need to check out this presentation Graham has created to find out what’s going on.]( World’s second-richest man’s NEW world-changing disruption [Disrupt]( 1997, a relatively unknown man disrupted the retail industry. Today, as the world’s second-richest man, he is all set to disrupt another $2 trillion industry. If you missed taking advantage of the retail disruption... Don’t miss this! You can get the full story right [here]( packed with aerial images, important dates, and even rare patent pics To see how this NEW disruption, can help you make a small fortune, [Click here.]( [Three founders Publishing]( To end your Gilder's Daily Prophecy e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Gilder's Daily Prophecy, feel free to [click here](. If you are having trouble receiving your Gilder's Daily Prophecy subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Gilder's Daily Prophecy](. Gilder's Daily Prophecy is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. Please read [our Privacy Statement.]( For any further comments or concerns please email us at GildersDailyProphecy@threefounderspublishing.com. Three Founders Publishing, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. Nothing in this e-mail should be considered personalized financial advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after online publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. © 2021 Three Founders Publishing, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Three Founders Publishing, LLC. EMAIL REFERENCE ID: 401GDPED01