Looking at 2020: "The Year of Doomsday Modeling"

Part 1 of this fascinating article... [Gilder's Daily Prophecy] January 26, 2021 [UNSUBSCRIBE]( | [ARCHIVES]( [>> Urgent Message From George Gilder <<]( [Cell phone]( Street is [exploiting an unfair advantage they have over folks]( you… And they’re making BILLIONS — even as the market tanks. It’s time you had a way to protect yourself — even potentially profit. [Click here to find out how now.]( [Warning] Do you enjoy receiving Gilder's Daily Prophecy? Please [Click Here Now]( so we know to continue sending you Gilder's Daily Prophecy for free! Looking at 2020: "The Year of Doomsday Modeling" [George Gilder]Dear Daily Prophecy Reader, Below is a report on the Swedish experience during the pandemic. Sweden did not lockdown at all until November. The study offers fascinating data showing that 2020 was unremarkable compared to earlier years. Combined with a drastic drop in mortality in 2019, the Swedes — without lockdown, and adjusted for changing age and population — ended up with a typical mortality year in 2020. [Biggest innovation since the Internet]( Scientists and researchers from lots of different disciplines produced lots of theories and mathematical models intended to explain and predict COVID and its impact. Models that in most cases eventually proved to vastly inflate and overestimate the risks and resulting deaths. It appears that most of these scientists fell in love with their own models and theories, and thus failed to take real world data and reality into account. Recall all the doomsday models predicting massive deaths already during the “First Wave”...? E.g. the one by [Professor Ferguson]( Imperial College, or [this one from Belgium,]( predicting, in line with the predictions of Ferguson’s model, a median of 96,000 deaths in Sweden by May 2020 (!), unless strict Lockdowns were immediately put in place…? 2020 was also the year when the media declared Sweden as a failed state, the [“World’s Cautionary Tale,”]( predicting massive deaths unless Sweden, like almost everybody else, fully LockedDown. And 2020 was the year when a lot of economies, public as well as private, businesses and entire industries went bust, because the response governments took to mitigate the pandemic. During 2020 it also became obvious that True Leadership, of the kind demonstrated e.g. by Churchill during WW2, has pretty much vanished from politics, media as well as from society in general — amplifying fear and panic is the last thing you should do as a Leader during a crisis. Also, 2020 was also the year when China smashed the western world so hard that it will take decades for the west to recover, if indeed ever. And finally, 2020 was the year when we stopped living due to fear of dying. So, how deadly did the Pandemic turn out to be ? How many “Excess Deaths” was there…? How proportional were the responses of the various governments? Trump’s Final Gift To America [America divided with Trump]( There’s a little-known way Trump could – one day – have his revenge. It involves a Federal Ruling he oversaw in the final year of his Presidency that could change America forever… unleash an estimated $15.1 trillion in new wealth… and create countless ways for everyday Americans to benefit. What is this little understood decision? And how will it impact you? [All the important facts are here.]( The Swedish Outcome Now, mid January 2021, we have the Swedish result (still preliminary, but perfectly good for overall conclusions): about 98,000 deaths for *the full year* — not 96000 by May 2020 (!) , as the models mentioned above (and many others) predicted. Still, 98000 yearly deaths is clearly more than the normal ~92000 (2019 with it’s 88766 deaths was a true outlier!) of the past few years, so clearly something has been going on 2020. Let’s see if we can figure out what’s been going on, and how much of an outlier 2020 really was…? Can we trust the preliminary data? But first, let’s briefly discuss the reliability of SCB’s preliminary death data. I’ve got a huge number of comments over the past year that: “You can’t trust the preliminary data, there is a huge lag, the numbers will increase a lot by subsequent reporting updates, just wait two more weeks and you’ll see...!” I’m not sure on what these commentators base their opinions on, but mine are based on the data, as well as on what [SCB themselves state about the data lag and it’s expected length and the effect of later updates:]( “Statistik för tvÃ¥ veckor tillbaka i tiden väntas inte förändras i nÃ¥gon större utsträckning.” For the non-Swedish speakers, I’m sure Google Translate can help out in making sense of the above quote. To see that the statement by SCB holds, let’s look at the number of monthly deaths per reporting date, and see how the data changes from one report to next, and then stabilizes, goes flat, when 3 weeks have passed since the first report after month end for that month: look at the graph below. Take any plot representing a single month e.g. the red plot representing April, and observe how the plot goes basically flat on the third reporting occasion after the month has ended. So, data three or more weeks back did not change substantially, exactly as SCB stated in their press release above. If we for each month calculate the difference between deaths the latest reporting date (Jan 18th), and deaths the third weekly report after end of each individual month, the average monthly update (discounting December, which is most likely have a larger update somewhat later than the “normal” three weeks) is 75 deaths. Now, since December and January are holiday months with both Christmas and New Year’s, the data reporting lag is somewhat larger for December data than for the other months. But for all practical purposes, for an overall result on whether 2020 was the contemporary equivalent to the Spanish Flu, it doesn’t really matter if the December deaths eventually, when the official 2020 numbers are released, are going to be 100 or even 1,000 larger than what was published today. That possible increase will not change the overall 2020 outcome in any significant way. I’m not after Rocket Science Precision to the n:th decimal in these analyses, and more importantly there are way more significant sources of massive uncertainty in any calculations on Swedish mortality than the possible data lag in SCB’s preliminary death data. [Top U.S. Economist George Gilder Makes New Prediction]( This information is just too good not to share. Stay tuned for part 2 tomorrow… Regards, [George Gilder] George Gilder Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy P.S. The current market is an anomaly, so devastating that some analysts say it “virtually eliminates any chance for almost anyone to make money” trading in the markets. But I think I have the answer. [Click this link to watch a video I made for you about how you may be able to exploit this anomaly and take advantage of the current market.]( Unanimous Bipartisan Approval. This could change your world [[Approved]Last year... Amazon got a unanimous bipartisan approval from the U.S. government for their latest project.]( One that will disrupt a $2 trillion industry. The approval set the ball in motion and work on the project took off at a frenetic pace. In Dec 2020, Amazon even tested a prototype that connects this project to the end user – YOU. 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