PRO Tip Sheet: 5 Insights From This Week

This week we reported on how 2024 is looking to be an ugly year at the box office, on what Tom Cruise’s departure from Paramount to Warner Bros. means, on how the 4K Blu-ray collectors market is the future and on Netflix’s most-watched canceled shows [5 Insights From WrapPRO]( This week we laid out why 2024 is looking to be a tough year at the box office because of a lack of big films slated for release. We also analyzed what Tom Cruise’s departure from Paramount to Warner Bros. means for the studios and his big franchises, reported on how the 4K Blu-ray collectors market is the future of physical media, delved into Netflix’s most-watched but canceled shows and discussed how two queer producing partners made streamer WOW Presents Plus a success. 1. [2024 Is Looking Like an Ugly Year for the Box Office]( By Fuster | Source: [WrapPRO]( - The 2023 box office ended with a $9 billion domestic result, but 2024 is expected to be significantly worse, with projections of around $8 billion due to a decrease in wide releases caused by industry strikes. - Global box office grosses for 2024 are estimated to reach $31.5 billion, reflecting a 5% drop from 2023, primarily attributed to the decline in the number of wide releases. - The major reason for the sharp drop in box office projections is the impact of strikes, with only 89 films expected to be released in more than 2,000 theaters in 2024, compared to 100 in 2023. - The financial support negotiated for theaters during the pandemic is no longer in place, leading to concerns about additional theater closures, especially for those that have been struggling month to month. - The industry faces challenges with a limited early-year blockbuster lineup, and the hope for 2024 lies in potential surprises, auteur-driven films, and the addition of unannounced films to the release calendar, with varying estimates on the total number of wide releases for the year. [Keep Reading]( 2. [Tom Cruise Ditches Paramount for Warner — What It All Means | Analysis]( By Sharon Waxman and Umberto Gonzalez | Source: [WrapPRO]( - Tom Cruise's departure from Paramount after a 31-year association has sent shockwaves through Hollywood, impacting Paramount's stock and raising questions about the fate of valuable movie franchises like “Mission: Impossible” and “Top Gun.” - Cruise's move to Warner Bros. is seen as a significant win for Warner Bros. Discovery and CEO David Zaslav, potentially weakening Paramount in the ongoing discussions about its acquisition, with implications for strategic buyers like Apple. - Despite Cruise's departure, Paramount's ownership of the “Mission: Impossible” franchise is secure; however, Cruise's effective control over the IP as the star and producer raises questions about the studio's ability to explore other content avenues beyond theatrical releases. - The departure also raises doubts about the future of “Top Gun” sequels at Paramount, with references in the announcement suggesting Cruise's focus on franchise projects at Warner Bros., including potential sequels to earlier Warner projects like “Edge of Tomorrow” and “Interview with the Vampire.” - Cruise's decision to leave Paramount may impact the studio's appeal to potential buyers, with Cruise's move seen as a blow to Paramount's three-decade relationship with the star and a potential asset for Warner Bros. Discovery in negotiations. [Keep Reading]( 3. [The 4K Blu-ray Collectors Market Is the Future of Physical Media]( By Adam Chitwood and Drew Taylor | Source:WrapPRO]( - Physical media faces a decline as streaming dominates, but the 4K Ultra HD Blu-ray segment is growing, embraced by studios and filmmakers who see it as a collector's item and a safeguard against streaming's impermanence. - Sales of Blu-ray and DVD have dropped significantly, with a 27% decline in the third quarter of 2023, but 4K Blu-ray sales have risen almost 6%, marking the only segment of the physical disc business experiencing growth. - Studios like Warner Bros. and Disney have the power to remove content from streaming services, emphasizing the lack of ownership in digital libraries, prompting consumers to turn to 4K Blu-rays for a sense of permanence. - Filmmakers like Christopher Nolan and Wes Anderson express the importance of 4K Blu-rays for presenting films in the best quality and ensuring a version that consumers can own without the risk of being removed by streaming services. - The rise of 4K Blu-rays coincides with the growth of 4K TV purchases, and studios like Universal and Paramount find 4K Blu-ray to be a lucrative investment, providing an opportunity to engage with collectors and maintain a presence in the physical media market. [Keep Reading]( 4. [‘Shadow and Bone,’ ’Designated Survivor’ Rank as Netflix’s Most-Watched Canceled Shows]( By Kayla Cobb | Source:WrapPRO]( - Netflix's transparency report reveals insights into the cancellation criteria for original shows, emphasizing the company's focus on the cost versus viewership ratio. - The analysis of the 1,000 most-streamed titles on Netflix from January to June 2023 uncovers canceled shows that performed well, challenging the assumption that cancellations are solely based on low viewership. - “Shadow and Bone” and “Designated Survivor” stand out as two canceled originals that achieved high viewership, illustrating different factors leading to cancellations, such as production delays and behind-the-scenes disputes. - The report highlights that acquisitions like “Designated Survivor,” initially saved from ABC, continue to bring in substantial viewership even after being canceled, suggesting a successful trend for Netflix in acquiring shows from other networks. - Long-canceled series like “Mindhunter” and the German thriller “1899” maintain impressive viewership, raising questions about the decision to end these projects despite their continued popularity. The engagement report provides some clarity but leaves many renewal decisions unexplained. [Keep Reading]( 5. [Queer Producers Fenton Bailey and Randy Barbato Grew Streamer WOW Presents Plus by Gut Checks Not Algorithms]( By Benjamin Lindsay | Source: [WrapPRO]( - Despite mainstream success and 10 combined Primetime Emmys, producers Fenton Bailey and Randy Barbato maintain the “fiercely independent” spirit at World of Wonder, emphasizing their LGBTQ-focused content. - WOW Presents Plus, the streaming arm launched six years ago, boasts over 200 original programs and a unique approach, creating a “fundamentally different space” with thrifty, limited-budget talk shows and reality series, independent of algorithmic influence. - “RuPaul's Drag Race” Season 16 achieves its highest TV share for any season premiere, up 4% from the previous season, according to Nielsen data, showcasing the continued popularity of the drag queen competition. - Despite their success, Bailey and Barbato stress that creative decisions are not solely guided by numbers, emphasizing a gut-driven approach over algorithmic influence in content creation. - WOW Presents Plus experiences a 40% growth in subscribers from 2022 to 2023, expanding its global reach with consistently viral hits like “UNHhhh” and “Fashion Photo RuView,” while continuing to introduce new programs and diversify its content offerings beyond “Drag Race.” [Keep Reading]( With a focus on delivering actionable intelligence, the PRO Tip Sheet empowers readers to stay ahead of the game in the industry. 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