Steve Pond’s Awards Beat: Oscar Hopes for ‘The Power of the Dog,’ ‘Belfast’ and Jessica Chastain Face Key Test With This Weekend's Awards

Steve Pond’s Awards Beat: Oscar Hopes for ‘The Power of the Dog,’ ‘Belfast’ and Jessica Chastain Face Key Test With This Weekend's Awards No images? [Click here]( ID=167008;size=700x180;setID=347001;uid={EMAIL}5760581;click=template_awards_beat [Awards Beat with Steve Pond] March 22, 2022 [- - -] Oscar Hopes for ‘The Power of the Dog,’ ‘Belfast’ and Jessica Chastain Face Key Test With This Weekend’s Awards With the Directors Guild, BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards taking place in a two-day stretch, momentum is up for grabs [- - -] By Steve Pond [Ciaran Hinds Jessica Chastain Benedict Cumberbatch] Ciaran Hinds in “Belfast” (Focus Features), Jessica Chastain in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures) and Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix) When it comes to determining who’s really on top in this year’s awards races, this weekend could be one of the most momentous. Or maybe one of the most misleading. The weekend will begin with [Directors Guild Awards]( in Beverly Hills on Saturday, with the [Annie Awards]( (for animation) taking place in a virtual format at the same time. The [EE British Academy Film Awards]((i.e., BAFTA) will take place on Sunday in London, followed almost immediately by the [Critics Choice Awards]( in Los Angeles (with a satellite ceremony in London.) And immediately after Critics Choice, the [Golden Reel Awards]( for sound editing will take place in a worldwide stream. Given the state of the Academy, and the difference between its voters and the ones who’ve cast ballots for this weekend’s shows, we can’t exactly trust anything we’ll learn this weekend. But with Oscar voting starting on Wednesday, a number of films, people and groups have a lot at stake over the next two days. Here are some of them: “The Power of the Dog” By all normal awards-season markers, [Jane Campion’s slow-burn Western]( is the clear front runner. But it’s a front runner that has a lot of people thinking it’s vulnerable to being beaten by a friendlier movie like “Belfast,” “CODA,” “King Richard” or “West Side Story,” largely because the preferential system of counting votes used in the Best Picture category rewards broadly acceptable favorites over more divisive ones.  A show of strength this weekend, though, could silence a lot of doubters. Of course, with front-runner status comes with high expectations – so a show of strength for Netflix’s “The Power of the Dog” would mean Campion winning the Directors Guild Award and then the film itself winning at both BAFTA and Critics Choice. But Campion is the prohibitive favorite at DGA, and her film is in good shape to win at BAFTA and the Critics Choice Awards as well. ID=167008;size=300x250;setID=284833;uid={EMAIL}5760581;click=template_awards_beat If it sweeps, it’ll be hard to overlook the signs and bet against it – although there’s little question that “The Power of the Dog” is more of a passion movie than a consensus movie, so even then it won’t feel like a lock at the Dolby Theatre. But whatever happens, “The Power of the Dog” will have one reason to celebrate this weekend, because Campion has recovered from a bout of COVID (no symptoms, just positive tests) that kept her away from a week’s worth of events.  “Belfast” Despite the surprise win for Apple Studios’ “CODA” [at the SAG Awards]( and its subsequent rise in all the Oscar polls, few people expect it to do much of anything this weekend, barring a sudden surge in support from, say, heartland members of the Critics Choice Association. (Supporting actor Troy Kotsur will probably win a couple of times, though.) The film that could really use a boost, though, is [Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast,”]( a seeming consensus-type film that needs a major win or two to emerge as a viable candidate going into Oscar voting. It should win Outstanding British Film at BAFTA, but that won’t really be enough to generate momentum. If it pulls off a best-picture upset at BAFTA or the CCA, it will start to regain its status as a contender for the top Oscar; if not, it’ll be a lot harder going into voting for the Oscars. Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Nicole Kidman and Kristen Stewart The hardest category to figure out at this point is probably Best Actress, and BAFTA is no help at all: Its six nominees – Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, Emilia Jones, Renate Reinsve, Joanna Scanlan and Tessa Thompson – do not include a single actress up for the Oscar, the first time that’s ever happened. So it’s up to the Critics Choice voters to help make sense of a category where Kidman won at the Golden Globes for “Being the Ricardos,” Chastain won at the SAG Awards for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Stewart got snubbed by those shows but then saved by Oscar nominating voters and Colman is, well, the formidable Olivia Colman. Chastain or Kidman could come out of Sunday with a little boost (though there’s absolutely no overlap between Oscar and CCA voters), Stewart’s story of redemption could get a nice Act 2 and Colman could remind people she’s still here. But whoever wins had better beware of the fifth Oscar nominee, Penélope Cruz, who isn’t up for any awards this weekend but just may be the favorite of the Academy’s increasingly large overseas contingent. For the rest of Steve Pond’s analysis of the Oscar race, [click here](. Read Steve Pond's recent Awards Beat coverage [HERE](#). 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