Steve Pond's Awards Beat: How the Oscar Race Stacks Up Now That the Guilds Have Spoken (Sorry, 'Spider-Man')

Steve Pond's Awards Beat: How the Oscar Race Stacks Up Now That the Guilds Have Spoken (Sorry, 'Spider-Man') No images? [Click here]( ID=167008;size=700x180;setID=347001;uid={EMAIL}5740828;click=template_awards_beat [Awards Beat with Steve Pond] January 28, 2021 [- - -] How the Oscar Race Stacks Up Now That the Guilds Have Spoken (Sorry, ‘Spider-Man’) The barrage of guild nominations wasn’t good for Sony’s superhero film, but it didn’t make any film a front runner, either [- - -] By Steve Pond [oscar race] “The Power of the Dog,” “CODA,” “King Richard,” Belfast,” “West Side Story” A baker’s dozen of different Hollywood guilds [have now made their choices]( for the best film accomplishments of 2021, culminating this week with a day in which the [Producers Guild](, [Writers Guild]( and [Directors Guild]( all announced their nominations within a few hours of each other. And when the dust cleared, the Oscar race looked pretty much the same way it did before the guilds started announcing nominations. “Belfast?” Check. “The Power of the Dog?” Yep. “West Side Story,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” “CODA,” “Dune,” “Don’t Look Up”? It sure looks that way. Yes, the guilds did put a dent in a few films’ chances. Sorry about that, “Spider-Man: No Way Home” and “No Time to Die.” You deserve better, “C’mon C’mon” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth.” But there were no dramatic changes when awards season shifted from critics, journalists and academics to film professionals, except among those who thought that rave reviews and critics’ awards for “Drive My Car” and “Spencer” meant that those films would be getting some real traction in the race. And if the guild awards narrowed the field a bit and shone a spotlight on a handful of contenders, they didn’t anoint a real front runner, because every film came out of the guilds with a dent or two.    If there’s a grand slam of film awards on the road to Oscars, it consists of landing nominations in the top film categories at the Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild, and also getting an ensemble-cast nomination from the Screen Actors Guild. This year, no film did all four of those things. ID=167008;size=300x250;setID=284833;uid={EMAIL}5740828;click=template_awards_beat Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” and Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” were nominated by all four groups, but their SAG nominations were for individual actors, not their ensembles. [Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast”]( got a SAG ensemble nomination and followed with noms from the PGA and DGA, but it wasn’t eligible for a WGA nomination because of guild rules limiting eligibility to screenplays written under their jurisdiction. And Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” was also disqualified from the WGA Awards – and although it received three individual SAG nominations, the most of any film, it somehow failed to get an ensemble nod. Still, “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog” were nominated for every major guild award they were eligible for, and also for the crucial film-editing prize from the [American Cinema Editors](. That puts them at the top of the list of contenders, along with “West Side Story” and perhaps “Licorice Pizza” (though the fact that the latter film’s sole SAG nomination came for Bradley Cooper’s extended cameo is hardly a show of strength). Then you’ve got to come to terms with [Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune,”]( which wasn’t nominated for any SAG Awards unless you include the stunt category. Apart from that, though, it swept the table with a dozen nominations from every other guild or professional society, three more than “West Side Story” managed. There’s not much recent precedent for a big movie like this winning the top Oscar, but a hefty chunk of the Academy consists of below-the-line craftspeople, and “Dune” likely belongs in the top five. But if those are the top five, what are the next five for the Best Picture category – which, after all, is back to a guaranteed 10 nominees? Well, the guilds give us exactly five films that were nominated by SAG, PGA and WGA, missing only the DGA ([which offered up a formidable quintet]( of Anderson, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg and Villeneuve, a hard club to crash). Those five are Aaron Sorkin’s “Being the Ricardos,” Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up,”  Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “King Richard,” Sian Heder’s “CODA” and Lin-Manuel Miranda’s “tick, tick…BOOM!” It’s conceivable those five films will complete the Best Picture category, but history suggests not: Since the Academy and the PGA expanded their slate of nominees, the two bodies have never matched exactly.   “Being the Ricardos” was the closest thing to a surprise on the PGA lineup – and if there’s a difference between that guild and the Oscar voters, it could be the most vulnerable film. [Andrew Garfield is a sure thing]( for “tick, tick…BOOM!” but the film itself isn’t a slam dunk to give the slate of nominees a second musical alongside “West Side Story.” (It’s not unprecedented for two musicals to be nominated for Best Picture in the same year – but unless you count “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “A Star Is Born” as musicals, it hasn’t happened since 1968.) Read the rest of Steve’s Awards Beat column, including his ranking of this year’s Best Picture front runners and the next tier vying for a nomination, [here](. Read Steve Pond’s recent Awards Beat coverage [HERE](. [- - -] [Follow us on Facebook]( [Follow us on Twitter]( [Follow us on Instagram]( [Follow us on Linkedin]( TheWrap 1808 Stanford Street, Santa Monica, CA, 90404 [Preferences]( | [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL}. If you are no longer interested you can [unsubscribe instantly](.