LNG posturing

Plus rate cuts in an election year and European farmers take to the streets [View this email in your browser]( [The Week Evening Review]( Biden's LNG pause, European farmer protests, and the Fed's rate cut dilemma   Good evening, The Federal Reserve is facing a case of "damned if they do, damned if they don't" on interest rate cuts in an election year. Meanwhile, Biden faces a similar problem after pausing liquefied natural gas exports. It's impossible to please everybody when it comes to green policies, as seen in Europe with the widespread protesting of farmers who are "desperate, really desperate." Summer Meza The Week Digital     TODAY'S BIG QUESTION Joe Biden's LNG pause: good policy or bad posturing? Late last month, the Biden administration announced a broad pause on pending approvals for new liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. The White House said the freeze will "lead the way in ambitious climate action while ensuring the American economy remains the envy of the world." Biden's order does not affect the nation's existing or already approved LNG export facilities, but it has already become a flashpoint across the political spectrum and around the world. The Republican-led House Energy and Commerce Committee said it will hold hearings on Biden’s decision, while international observers said that any disruption to American outflow of LNG could jeopardize European efforts to wean itself off Russian-supplied fuel. What did the commentators say? The LNG pause is Biden's "most sweeping step yet" to pump the breaks on a "fossil fuel industry that has prospered on his watch," said Politico. It also shows the “resurgence of environmental groups’ influence on the White House." The debate over this new pause is, in part, one of political self-interest, The New Republic's Liza Featherstone said. While Democrats "want to goose turnout for Biden" based on actual environmental policy, Republicans "want to animate the angry petrosexuals in their base." By offering this "raw political payoff to the climate left," the Biden administration is risking "U.S. national security and economic interests," said the editorial board of the conservative Wall Street Journal. The order is an "election-year sop to climate activists" that will ultimately "unsettle vital U.S. alliances" instead of saving the planet, The Washington Post's editorial board said. What next? While the new rule likely won't affect LNG supply itself "in the short or medium term," it "erodes confidence in the longer term," Shell CEO Wael Sawan said to The Financial Times. Fellow oil executive Exxon CFO Kathy Mikells said to Fortune that it “harms the world achieving net zero sooner rather than later" by pushing for expanded use of coal, which is more environmentally harmful. In a joint letter, 10 House Democrats from several oil-producing states asked the White House to "refocus" its LNG policies. And Pennsylvania Democratic Senators Bob Casey and John Fetterman said they will "push the Biden administration to reverse this decision" if state jobs are "at risk."     QUOTE OF THE DAY "They thought they were doing a good thing, but it made people worse, which was very concerning," Harvard Medical School's Dr. John Torous on the harm caused by popular mental health apps     The Explainer Why Europe's farmers are protesting Thousands of farmers in France took to the streets to protest a variety of alleged grievances against their industry. Farmers near Paris saddled up on their tractors to barricade highways in what the farmers are calling a "siege" of the French capital city. And while the protests in France have started to dissipate, what began on the streets of Paris has now spread across large swaths of the European Union. Why are they protesting? A variety of issues have plagued farmers throughout the continent. This includes a "burgeoning bureaucracy," as well as "wider issues, including the increasing cost of farm diesel, late payment of EU subsidies or competition from imports," said BBC. As a result of the EU's efforts, many farmers have been "unable to cover high costs for energy, fertilizer and transport," Reuters said. The green policies being pushed by the EU are "seen as contradicting goals to become more self-sufficient in production of food and other essential goods in the light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine." "The farmers are desperate, really desperate,” Mark Wulfrancke, the policy officer for the Belgian farming union ABS, said to The Guardian. “We've warned the government for years that this would happen.” What are European governments doing in response? The widespread protests seemed to make an impact on regulators almost instantly. The EU's governing body, the European Commission, announced plans on Jan. 31 that would protect the farming economy from some of the changes implemented by the Common Agricultural Policy. These plans include a proposal to shield farmers from the price effects of Ukrainian imports. And while Ukrainian imports have indeed had most of their quotas waived, the European Commission also proposed a cap on some agricultural products as a concession to farmers. This allows the EU to maintain "economic support for [Ukraine], while taking EU farmers' interests and sensitivities fully into account," Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said. In response to some of these concessions, the leaders of France's farming unions said they were ending most of their strikes and lifting their roadblocks. But protests across most other nations in the EU are expanding.     Statistic of the day 600,000: The number of people left without power in California on Monday morning following an atmospheric river storm that pounded the state. The storm, part of the Pineapple Express weather system, caused torrential rain and intense winds across the Golden State. This marked the second Pineapple Express storm to hit California in under a week. PowerOutage.us   Advertisement by Betterment [Betterment is the automated investing app that puts your money to work](   TALKING POINT Could Fed interest rate cuts tip the election? Federal Reserve leaders signaled they might wait months before making interest rate cuts. Some economists had predicted the Fed would start cutting rates in March now that inflation, a focus in this year's presidential election, is nearing its 2% target. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell doesn't think the committee will “reach a level of confidence" by then. Rate cuts could be hugely impactful, boosting stocks and consumer spending heading into an election "pivoting in no small part on voters' perceptions of President Joe Biden's economic stewardship," said The Associated Press. Now, the first cut could fall at a key point in the 2024 campaign. Inevitable interest rate cuts will boost Biden Fed officials don't "set interest rates with presidential elections in mind," said Jim Tankersley in The New York Times. But any rate cuts "could provide an election-year assist to Biden." Regardless, the Fed already helped Biden by “holding rates steady for the back half of 2023 as inflation cooled," because more rate hikes could have triggered a recession. If the Fed is as politicized as "cynics" think, a "surprise March cut could still be in the cards," said Société Générale's Albert Edwards to Fortune. Former President Donald Trump's lead is growing, so if Fed policymakers do "covertly favor" Biden, they have more incentive than ever to "press their foot hard onto the gas pedal." In any case, Fed officials don't want to be blamed for tanking the economy amid a "contentious" campaign. Waiting until after Election Day might be best The Fed is "damned if they do and damned if they don't," Santander's Stephen Stanley said to Bloomberg. Cutting rates early could help Biden, and waiting could help Trump. Waiting makes sense anyhow because inflation isn't tamed yet. With inflation "within striking distance" of the Fed's target, there's "no rationale" for keeping rates near 5.5% and "slamming the brakes on the economy," said Heather Long in The Washington Post. The way to show neutrality is to cut rates in March, then hold them steady while election season heats up. Whatever the Fed decides, Powell won't be able to "convince the most committed partisans" that it wasn't motivated by politics, said Nick Timiraos in The Wall Street Journal. The trick will be explaining to everyone else it's best for the economy, not a single candidate.     Poll watch Nearly three-quarters of North Carolinians think the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction, according to a new poll from High Point University. The poll surveyed 1,013 people in the potential swing state and found that 73% of respondents felt the country was on the wrong track.     INSTANT OPINION Today's best commentary 'The death penalty just won't die'Robert Gebelhoff in The Washington Post America's "innovative spirit" is "languishing" in some areas but not in its execution chambers, says Robert Gebelhoff in The Washington Post. Alabama recently executed Kenneth Eugene Smith with nitrogen gas, a first that came as executions tick up and states struggle to find drugs for lethal injections. We're making a “mockery of the principle that all life is sacred" by "doubling down" on capital punishment, even though most Western democracies abandoned it decades ago as "barbaric." 'The Democrats probably don't want a divisive nomination fight right now'Charles C.W. Cooke at National ReviewMany Democrats would love to swap out President Joe Biden for a new candidate, says Charles C.W. Cooke at National Review, but they won't do it. It would be hard to find someone better. "That isn't because Biden is strong — he's not, he's a disaster — but because the Democratic coalition" is shaky. Removing Biden would ignite a “fight over the direction of the party." It would be "foolish" to "deliberately" start infighting in an election year. 'It's way too easy for a crook like Trump to pervert our legal system'Michael Tomasky in The New RepublicAnother week, another court case that could "destroy Trump," says Michael Tomasky in The New Republic. The Supreme Court on Thursday hears arguments in the case seeking to “bar Trump from the ballot" under the Fourteenth Amendment's insurrection clause. An appeals court is mulling whether Trump is "immune from prosecution." At issue, really, is the “devastating possibility" that our system has "no way of punishing obviously illegal and immoral behavior" if the person is rich and powerful enough.   Advertisement by Betterment [Betterment is the automated investing app that puts your money to work](   Picture of the day Lucky beans Parents watch kindergarten students participating in a bean-throwing ceremony during the annual Setsubun Festival in Tokyo, Japan. Philip Fong / Getty Images     Good day 🚀 … for Russian cosmonaut Oleg Kononenko. On Sunday, Kononenko set a world record for the most time spent in space after logging over 878 days, or almost two-and-a-half years. He broke the record while orbiting 263 miles from Earth on his fifth space flight. Konenko said he was proud that the record is "still held by a Russian cosmonaut."     Bad day 🚙 … for Paris SUV owners. Parisians voted in favor of tripling the cost of parking for sports utility vehicles following a proposal by the city's mayor's office. The special parking fees for SUVs come as the city cracks down on large polluting cars to lower air pollution and tackle climate crises.     Puzzles [Daily crossword]( Test your general knowledge with The Week's daily crossword, part of our puzzles section, which also includes [sudoku]( and [codewords](. [Play here](     The Week recommends [TV to watch this month]( There is a whiff of nostalgia in this month's television releases, with a few highly anticipated reboots, remakes and spin-offs hitting the small screen and streamers. Here are two picks to kickstart the shortest (longest) month. 'Kings From Queens: The Run DMC Story' (Feb. 1) Hip-hop connoisseurs and music history fans can check out "Kings From Queens: The Run DMC Story," a Peacock documentary series about Joseph "Rev Run" Simmons, Darryl "DMC" McDaniels and Jason "Jam Master Jay" Mizell, that hit Peacock earlier this month. Run-DMC is undoubtedly hip-hop royalty, and the documentary follows their meteoric rise to fame. The film is a vulnerable look at the group that "doesn't try to be too progressive or sanitized." the outlet said. In some aspects, fans may be left wanting more, “but at the end of the day, 'Kings From Queens' is an emotionally satisfying trip down memory lane. 'Avatar: The Last Airbender' (Feb. 22) Wait, hear us out. Live-action adaptations have a terrible reputation, but if you consider the success of last year's "One Piece" adaptation, Netflix may have cracked the code. This is not the first time someone has tried to adapt the massively popular Nickelodeon animated series "Avatar: The Last Airbender,” but "Netflix’s forthcoming adaptation may well be its best rendition yet," Ryan Epps said in Tom's Guide. This is one of the year's most anticipated films, as fans wait to see if the streamer can do it justice. Showrunner Albert Kim said the series is a “remix, not a cover," in an interview with IGN, so die-hard fans can expect some changes. [Read more](     WORD OF THE DAY enhanced Billionaire Peter Thiel has backed the Enhanced Games, a controversial drug-friendly sports competition billed as a “modern reinvention of the Olympic Games."     In the morning Tomorrow, you can read about a new hope in diagnosing pancreatic cancer earlier and why the political-media complex is dying even amid a crucial election year. Thanks for reading, Summer     Evening Review was written and edited by Theara Coleman, Nadia Croes, Catherine Garcia, Harold Maass, Scott Hocker, Justin Klawans, Kelsee Majette, Joel Mathis, Summer Meza, Devika Rao, Rafi Schwartz, Anahi Valenzuela and Peter Weber, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly and Julia Wytrazek. Image credits, from top: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images; Christophe Ena/AP Photo; Getty Images; Landmark Media / Amazon / Alamy   © Future US, Inc • [theweek.com]( [Unsubscribe from this newsletter]( [Privacy Policy]( The Week is published by Future US, Inc. 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