Higher for Longer...

[] Today's market commentary from TradingPub is here! To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( [] [] [] Lance has crushed long holiday weekends — and MLK Day weekend in particular… [get in on this week’s trades before the close Friday!]( Higher For Longer… Dear Fellow Trader: It wasn’t surprising. But it was an ugly move lower. The Consumer Price Index came in much higher than expected Thursday morning. As a result, we’ve seen a shift in sentiment once again — with utilities and real estate stocks taking a hit. We want to review the CPI and explain why this report is such a problem for the equity markets over the next two months. What is the Consumer Price Index? The CPI is a measurement of the “cost of living” in a society. Every nation has its own inflation and cost of living reading, but the U.S. CPI is significant because the nation has the world’s largest economy. The CPI calculates changes in everyday items and services over a period of months and years. So, picture a shopping cart in a store — a store with a lot of different goods and services used by American households. These items include gas, food, rent, medical care, transportation charges and more. During each report, the CPI tracks the shift in prices from a monthly and annual basis. If the CPI goes up, it means it's getting more expensive to buy the same things, indicating inflation. If it goes down, things are generally getting cheaper, hinting at deflation. When the CPI is over 2% annualized, it’s running hotter than what the Federal Reserve wants. When inflation is under the Fed’s target of 2%, the central bank may engage in quantitative easing to spur economic activity. Finally, the CPI is important for a variety of reasons. It’s not just that Americans are paying more or less. This reading is essential to business planning and government policy. Businesses may adjust salaries so employees can keep up with rising costs in the economy. The U.S. government will increase its Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) on Social Security and other government programs to keep up with inflation. And finally, the Fed — the U.S. central bank — will alter its policies to reflect changes in inflation. And that brings us to the coming months… and why today’s reading was so important. Higher for Longer Over the last two years, the Federal Reserve engaged in a string of interest rate hikes to help contain inflation across the economy. The official reading for CPI hit 8.5% in March 2022 — the highest reading in decades. Inflation surged on the back of the government printing trillions of dollars in COVID-19 relief programs and a variety of other policies that fueled too much money chasing finite goods. Over the last year, the rate of inflation has come down, spurring many market participants to anticipate rate cuts sooner than later. Right now, the market anticipates that the Fed will make its first rate cut in March 2024. The chart below — [from CME FedWatch tool]( — shows the current pricing in odds for a rate cut in March. The odds are north of 62%. [] But today’s CPI reading showed that inflation increased by 0.3% in December (month over month), lifting the annualized rate to 3.4%. This is an increase and the first time in some time that the rate of inflation has been going in the wrong direction. Americans continue to spend at a breakneck pace, with credit card debt again hitting an all-time record. The uptick of the inflation rate now shifts the conversation from “How High” on rates to “How Long” will rates remain elevated. We must keep a close eye on that rate cut expectation for March. If the odds start to dissipate, we could be talking about the possibility that the market wipes out the bulk of its gains from the massive fourth quarter 2023 rally. This rally was built on the narrative that the central bank would cut rates four times in 2024. Right now… that prediction seems excessive after today’s CPI figure. [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Check Out These Green Arrows… What you’re seeing is a rare Bitcoin phenomenon that was last seen eight years ago To put things into perspective for you… The last time a cross pattern like this showed up on its chart… [Bitcoin shot up 8,000%!]( Now, for the first time in about eight years, we could see this phenomenon repeat itself. We have no idea if Bitcoin will hit another all-time high like the last time… But from where we stand right now, Graham is very bullish (I am, too!) about where we’re headed… And that's because rare patterns like this are what puts more steps on the gas for this new way of crypto trading. [Ready for the Crypto Bull Run of 2024?]( [] *The profits and performance shown are not typical, we make no future earnings claims and you may lose money. Since the ProTrader Dashboard is a tool for traders and not a trading service, profits and performance will vary among users.Trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the Garrett {NAME} channel and you’re set: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] _______________________________________________ [] [] [] Lance has crushed long holiday weekends — and MLK Day weekend in particular… [get in on this week’s trades before the close Friday!]( Higher For Longer… Dear Fellow Trader: It wasn’t surprising. But it was an ugly move lower. The Consumer Price Index came in much higher than expected Thursday morning. As a result, we’ve seen a shift in sentiment once again — with utilities and real estate stocks taking a hit. We want to review the CPI and explain why this report is such a problem for the equity markets over the next two months. What is the Consumer Price Index? The CPI is a measurement of the “cost of living” in a society. Every nation has its own inflation and cost of living reading, but the U.S. CPI is significant because the nation has the world’s largest economy. The CPI calculates changes in everyday items and services over a period of months and years. So, picture a shopping cart in a store — a store with a lot of different goods and services used by American households. These items include gas, food, rent, medical care, transportation charges and more. During each report, the CPI tracks the shift in prices from a monthly and annual basis. If the CPI goes up, it means it's getting more expensive to buy the same things, indicating inflation. If it goes down, things are generally getting cheaper, hinting at deflation. When the CPI is over 2% annualized, it’s running hotter than what the Federal Reserve wants. When inflation is under the Fed’s target of 2%, the central bank may engage in quantitative easing to spur economic activity. Finally, the CPI is important for a variety of reasons. It’s not just that Americans are paying more or less. This reading is essential to business planning and government policy. Businesses may adjust salaries so employees can keep up with rising costs in the economy. The U.S. government will increase its Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) on Social Security and other government programs to keep up with inflation. And finally, the Fed — the U.S. central bank — will alter its policies to reflect changes in inflation. And that brings us to the coming months… and why today’s reading was so important. Higher for Longer Over the last two years, the Federal Reserve engaged in a string of interest rate hikes to help contain inflation across the economy. The official reading for CPI hit 8.5% in March 2022 — the highest reading in decades. Inflation surged on the back of the government printing trillions of dollars in COVID-19 relief programs and a variety of other policies that fueled too much money chasing finite goods. Over the last year, the rate of inflation has come down, spurring many market participants to anticipate rate cuts sooner than later. Right now, the market anticipates that the Fed will make its first rate cut in March 2024. The chart below — [from CME FedWatch tool]( — shows the current pricing in odds for a rate cut in March. The odds are north of 62%. [] But today’s CPI reading showed that inflation increased by 0.3% in December (month over month), lifting the annualized rate to 3.4%. This is an increase and the first time in some time that the rate of inflation has been going in the wrong direction. Americans continue to spend at a breakneck pace, with credit card debt again hitting an all-time record. The uptick of the inflation rate now shifts the conversation from “How High” on rates to “How Long” will rates remain elevated. We must keep a close eye on that rate cut expectation for March. If the odds start to dissipate, we could be talking about the possibility that the market wipes out the bulk of its gains from the massive fourth quarter 2023 rally. This rally was built on the narrative that the central bank would cut rates four times in 2024. Right now… that prediction seems excessive after today’s CPI figure. [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Check Out These Green Arrows… What you’re seeing is a rare Bitcoin phenomenon that was last seen eight years ago To put things into perspective for you… The last time a cross pattern like this showed up on its chart… [Bitcoin shot up 8,000%!]( Now, for the first time in about eight years, we could see this phenomenon repeat itself. We have no idea if Bitcoin will hit another all-time high like the last time… But from where we stand right now, Graham is very bullish (I am, too!) about where we’re headed… And that's because rare patterns like this are what puts more steps on the gas for this new way of crypto trading. [Ready for the Crypto Bull Run of 2024?]( [] *The profits and performance shown are not typical, we make no future earnings claims and you may lose money. Since the ProTrader Dashboard is a tool for traders and not a trading service, profits and performance will vary among users.Trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the Garrett {NAME} channel and you’re set: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] _______________________________________________ [] Disclaimer: The material in this document is for informational purposes based on our proprietary research. It is not an offering, specific recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned or discussed herein. Any performance results discussed herein represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment. Due to the timing of information presented, any investment performance reflected within this document may be adjusted after the publication and distribution of this material. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, be equal to any corresponding indicated historical performance levels or be suitable for your portfolio. Any investment results set forth in this document are not net of expenses and execution costs, nor do they account for other relevant trading or investment fees. Please visit thetradingpub.com/terms-of-service/ for our full Terms and Conditions. A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [] Disclaimer: The material in this document is for informational purposes based on our proprietary research. It is not an offering, specific recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned or discussed herein. Any performance results discussed herein represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment. Due to the timing of information presented, any investment performance reflected within this document may be adjusted after the publication and distribution of this material. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, be equal to any corresponding indicated historical performance levels or be suitable for your portfolio. Any investment results set forth in this document are not net of expenses and execution costs, nor do they account for other relevant trading or investment fees. Please visit thetradingpub.com/terms-of-service/ for our full Terms and Conditions. A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States