Buyer Beware: Why Recent Optimism Could Backfire

[] Today's market commentary from TradingPub is here! To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( [] [] [] Buyer Beware: Why Recent Optimism Could Backfire Big Time The oversold territory from late October was scary. But this rally might frighten me even more. The reason is that current optimism may create the very same problems that we’ve endured over the last 18 months. You see, in those 18 months, the narrative around interest rates has shifted time and time again. When markets expected rates would rise, the equities fell as liquidity dried up. But then, a bit of positive news would fuel speculation that the Fed wouldn’t need to raise interest rates higher. Bond and stock prices would rise on the sentiment. This would fuel large amounts of short covering, which propelled the market higher. There’s just one problem... Rising bond and rising stock prices are — by definition — inflationary. And that can restart lots of concerns about the Fed needing to raise interest rates higher. Today, I want to show you what happened on Tuesday, and why you need to be VERY cautious about this rally. Let me point out what I told my members at [Executive Payouts Unlimited](... This analysis is critical — because it impacts the Equity Momentum and Insider Buying activity. Now, here’s what I told them earlier today. Watching the ECI As an economist, I pay very close attention to the Economic Conditions Index at the Chicago Federal Reserve. This measures financial conditions — and liquidity — in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. This is the reading, and the higher the reading, the tighter conditions are. Tighter conditions can mean less liquidity, which means less money flowing into risk assets like stocks. This is the chart going back to mid-2021 before the sell-off hit. Remember, when this chart is moving down and the mix of risk, credit and leverage expands, conditions are easing. [] You can take this chart below on the S&P 500-tracking SPY ETF, and turn it over. It will show a similar pattern of how liquidity impacted the index. [] As you can see, there has been a huge spike in the markets since the end of October, when the Economic Conditions Index began expanding. But here’s the real eye-opener... Goldman Sachs — which measures this stuff in real time (the Chicago Fed releases this once a week) — says that the move on Tuesday was so dramatic on stock and bond prices (both moving up) that they created easing in the market in one day that hasn’t been seen since November 2021. “ZeroHedge noted that we saw one of the largest one-day declines (easing) in U.S. financial conditions since late 2020. And… that move was comparable to the Federal Reserve reducing its benchmark rate… by 150 basis points. Goldman Sachs (as ZeroHedge notes) has suggested that the “Financial Index Conditions Doom Loop” could make a return quickly. A surge in bond and stock prices is, by default — inflationary. That can spur economic growth and spending while forcing the Fed to turn around and talk more about financial tightening… And then… the S&P 500 finds itself moving lower. We are not out of the woods. Expect more chop. And ride this current rally until the indicators go red once again. [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] The BEST Way to Seek Additional Income in This Market Dividend stocks have proven to be a reliable, safe approach to generate extra income from the stock market. Now don’t get me wrong… I’m not saying you should blindly pick up any dividend-paying stock… Because the truth is, most of them have low yields. And the stock itself may not be worth holding at all. Getting a dividend doesn’t do you much good if you’re going to lose a bunch of money on the stock itself. What you can do instead is [pick up this simple blueprint…]( And follow it strictly before you invest in ANY dividend stock… Along with Jack Carter and Celeste Lindman’s best high-yield dividend stocks you can buy today… and start collecting extra income… [Just Go Here for the Details]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is GREEN We are up, but we did see an uptick in selling today. We have to stay patient, and deploy capital smartly. Look for continued rotation out of certain sectors like energy and into tech. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the Garrett {NAME} channel and you’re set: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] Join the Conversation [] [] [] Buyer Beware: Why Recent Optimism Could Backfire Big Time The oversold territory from late October was scary. But this rally might frighten me even more. The reason is that current optimism may create the very same problems that we’ve endured over the last 18 months. You see, in those 18 months, the narrative around interest rates has shifted time and time again. When markets expected rates would rise, the equities fell as liquidity dried up. But then, a bit of positive news would fuel speculation that the Fed wouldn’t need to raise interest rates higher. Bond and stock prices would rise on the sentiment. This would fuel large amounts of short covering, which propelled the market higher. There’s just one problem... Rising bond and rising stock prices are — by definition — inflationary. And that can restart lots of concerns about the Fed needing to raise interest rates higher. Today, I want to show you what happened on Tuesday, and why you need to be VERY cautious about this rally. Let me point out what I told my members at [Executive Payouts Unlimited](... This analysis is critical — because it impacts the Equity Momentum and Insider Buying activity. Now, here’s what I told them earlier today. Watching the ECI As an economist, I pay very close attention to the Economic Conditions Index at the Chicago Federal Reserve. This measures financial conditions — and liquidity — in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. This is the reading, and the higher the reading, the tighter conditions are. Tighter conditions can mean less liquidity, which means less money flowing into risk assets like stocks. This is the chart going back to mid-2021 before the sell-off hit. Remember, when this chart is moving down and the mix of risk, credit and leverage expands, conditions are easing. [] You can take this chart below on the S&P 500-tracking SPY ETF, and turn it over. It will show a similar pattern of how liquidity impacted the index. [] As you can see, there has been a huge spike in the markets since the end of October, when the Economic Conditions Index began expanding. But here’s the real eye-opener... Goldman Sachs — which measures this stuff in real time (the Chicago Fed releases this once a week) — says that the move on Tuesday was so dramatic on stock and bond prices (both moving up) that they created easing in the market in one day that hasn’t been seen since November 2021. “ZeroHedge noted that we saw one of the largest one-day declines (easing) in U.S. financial conditions since late 2020. And… that move was comparable to the Federal Reserve reducing its benchmark rate… by 150 basis points. Goldman Sachs (as ZeroHedge notes) has suggested that the “Financial Index Conditions Doom Loop” could make a return quickly. A surge in bond and stock prices is, by default — inflationary. That can spur economic growth and spending while forcing the Fed to turn around and talk more about financial tightening… And then… the S&P 500 finds itself moving lower. We are not out of the woods. Expect more chop. And ride this current rally until the indicators go red once again. [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] The BEST Way to Seek Additional Income in This Market Dividend stocks have proven to be a reliable, safe approach to generate extra income from the stock market. Now don’t get me wrong… I’m not saying you should blindly pick up any dividend-paying stock… Because the truth is, most of them have low yields. And the stock itself may not be worth holding at all. Getting a dividend doesn’t do you much good if you’re going to lose a bunch of money on the stock itself. What you can do instead is [pick up this simple blueprint…]( And follow it strictly before you invest in ANY dividend stock… Along with Jack Carter and Celeste Lindman’s best high-yield dividend stocks you can buy today… and start collecting extra income… [Just Go Here for the Details]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is GREEN We are up, but we did see an uptick in selling today. We have to stay patient, and deploy capital smartly. Look for continued rotation out of certain sectors like energy and into tech. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the Garrett {NAME} channel and you’re set: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] Join the Conversation [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. 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[Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States