Making Sense of the Fed’s Pause

[] Today's market commentary from TradingPub is here! To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( [] [] [] Catch Lance Ippolito at noon ET on Thursday to see how he’s trading [Apple, DraftKings and Square earnings!]( Making Sense of the Fed’s Pause To no one’s surprise, the Federal Reserve held interest rates at current levels for the second straight meeting. The Fed’s statement noted that the U.S. economy remains strong, with another blowout number in the third quarter. And once again, the Fed noted that “inflation remains elevated.” The consensus is that rising U.S. Treasuries will act like a rate hike on their own. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond recently breached 5%, aided by ongoing concerns in Washington about the stability of U.S. debt and questions about the Department of the Treasury’s ability to refinance trillions in existing debt. Yet, it’s curious that the Fed – once again — isn’t talking about the 800-pound gorilla in the room... The U.S. debt — and the $1.7 trillion deficit — is holding the Fed back from accomplishing its mission to combat inflation and finally drown it. The Fed should raise interest rates at least once more to signal to the markets that it’s serious about stopping a resurgence of inflation in the next two years. And then, rates will likely remain elevated (about 5% through 2024). What Powell Should Be Saying Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t want to be Arty Burns, the embattled Fed chair of the 1970s that saw multiple rounds of inflation wipe out purchasing power. What’s always interesting about Burns is that he, too, never took aim at Washington D.C. until it was too late. Burns had retired from the Fed by 1978 and finally explained the challenges he faced during the ’70s in a speech a year later in Yugoslavia. When asked what went wrong, Burns noted that he was fighting several inflationary factors. Those included war spending, Nixon’s decision to take America off the gold standard, an increase in money supply, energy shortages fueled by OPEC, and big COLA increases on government entitlements, among other factors. Look around. We’re seeing VERY similar conditions. We poured trillions of dollars from the sky in the last three years, and the full inflationary impact has not been realized. We’re now supporting two wars, running trillion-dollar deficits, paying large entitlement bumps, and dealing with energy shortages here in the United States — as we draw down our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Powell said in 2020 that the U.S. deficit was unsustainable, and recently hinted that congressional spending must be reigned in. "The path we're on is unsustainable, and we'll have to get off that path sooner rather than later," Powell said at the New York Economic Club two weeks ago. I suppose that’s a start. But Powell had the opportunity before congress to explicitly explain the problems — and that the fiscal deficits are hindering his progress. There’s good reason to argue that a balanced budget would help curtail inflation, and the Fed could move on cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, we know Washington will continue to spend recklessly until repercussions are felt. For two months, the bond market has screamed that Washington needs to get its fiscal house in order. Just a few days ago, the U.S. 10-year bond paid a higher yield… than the 10-year bond of Greece, the poster child of debt insanity over the last decade. Just think about that… What Comes Next The Fed’s likely going to raise rates one more time. It’s unlikely to change the inflation target, but the longer interest rates are elevated — the more likely there will be a bigger problem that we don’t see yet. Refinancing in real estate will be a major issue in the next three years. The Treasury’s ability to refinance $7.6 trillion in debt in the next two years will likely drive interest rates higher. And there’s that question of what’s happening within the banking sector as we move toward March 2024, and the Fed needs to address its bailout programs. This is a very tricky market — and I agree with Stanley Druckenmiller that the next few years will be quite complicated. As I’ll explain in Tactical Wealth Investor next week, the time to focus on the long term is now. Investors need to purchase great businesses that have real demand. But we must pay very close attention to current valuations. The threat of valuation compression is very real — and it’s a bit alarming that so many different stocks are currently priced for growth at price-to-earnings multiples north of 25. We will need to be very selective with our choices. Tomorrow, I’ll be back with more insight on Midstream in the Energy sector. Here is a place of strong demand, great yields and appreciation upside. [] Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] Cut Through the Noise With Roger’s ProTrader Dashboard! When Roger Scott [launched his ProTrader Dashboard]( on Monday, he wasn’t 100% sure how everyone would react to it. But one thing he is sure of… If you’re ever going to have a chance to profit from the same opportunities as Wall Street, the ProTrader Dashboard is the best tool for the job… And that’s why when these messages from his top students came in… Roger knew he’d [created something phenomenal:]( • “I started with $4,000 and now have over $8,000 in just 15 days” - James B • All you do is make us $$$. Thank you!” - David M. • “Hey Roger, a big THANK YOU for all the trade ideas this week! Benefiting greatly from your work and education. I made $2,270 so far!” - Brett M. • “I am on a 16 trade winning streak all puts!” - Tim • “WOW, I am making some serious cash!” - Jeffrey B. • “Thank you Roger, four trades over 80% gains on these past few days for CHWY, JKS, DHI, EL!”- Nena Granted, some trades were bigger, some were smaller and some even resulted in a loss… as is always the case with trading. But these are your peers — regular traders and regular folks just like you… If you missed out on the Protrader Dashboard launch [Get Up To Speed Here!]( [] *The profits and performance shown are not typical, we make no future earnings claims and you may lose money. The alerts expressed are trades Roger published in real time using the ProTrader Dashboard in his VIP room over the summer. There were bigger winners, there were smaller winners, and there were losers. Trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is RED Momentum and the S&P 500 is now barreling back toward its 200-day moving average. We’ll see if it can buck the trend and take the market higher. The MACD on the SPY is on the verge of turning positive, which would be a very bullish situation. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] [] [] Catch Lance Ippolito at noon ET on Thursday to see how he’s trading [Apple, DraftKings and Square earnings!]( Making Sense of the Fed’s Pause To no one’s surprise, the Federal Reserve held interest rates at current levels for the second straight meeting. The Fed’s statement noted that the U.S. economy remains strong, with another blowout number in the third quarter. And once again, the Fed noted that “inflation remains elevated.” The consensus is that rising U.S. Treasuries will act like a rate hike on their own. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond recently breached 5%, aided by ongoing concerns in Washington about the stability of U.S. debt and questions about the Department of the Treasury’s ability to refinance trillions in existing debt. Yet, it’s curious that the Fed – once again — isn’t talking about the 800-pound gorilla in the room... The U.S. debt — and the $1.7 trillion deficit — is holding the Fed back from accomplishing its mission to combat inflation and finally drown it. The Fed should raise interest rates at least once more to signal to the markets that it’s serious about stopping a resurgence of inflation in the next two years. And then, rates will likely remain elevated (about 5% through 2024). What Powell Should Be Saying Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t want to be Arty Burns, the embattled Fed chair of the 1970s that saw multiple rounds of inflation wipe out purchasing power. What’s always interesting about Burns is that he, too, never took aim at Washington D.C. until it was too late. Burns had retired from the Fed by 1978 and finally explained the challenges he faced during the ’70s in a speech a year later in Yugoslavia. When asked what went wrong, Burns noted that he was fighting several inflationary factors. Those included war spending, Nixon’s decision to take America off the gold standard, an increase in money supply, energy shortages fueled by OPEC, and big COLA increases on government entitlements, among other factors. Look around. We’re seeing VERY similar conditions. We poured trillions of dollars from the sky in the last three years, and the full inflationary impact has not been realized. We’re now supporting two wars, running trillion-dollar deficits, paying large entitlement bumps, and dealing with energy shortages here in the United States — as we draw down our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Powell said in 2020 that the U.S. deficit was unsustainable, and recently hinted that congressional spending must be reigned in. "The path we're on is unsustainable, and we'll have to get off that path sooner rather than later," Powell said at the New York Economic Club two weeks ago. I suppose that’s a start. But Powell had the opportunity before congress to explicitly explain the problems — and that the fiscal deficits are hindering his progress. There’s good reason to argue that a balanced budget would help curtail inflation, and the Fed could move on cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, we know Washington will continue to spend recklessly until repercussions are felt. For two months, the bond market has screamed that Washington needs to get its fiscal house in order. Just a few days ago, the U.S. 10-year bond paid a higher yield… than the 10-year bond of Greece, the poster child of debt insanity over the last decade. Just think about that… What Comes Next The Fed’s likely going to raise rates one more time. It’s unlikely to change the inflation target, but the longer interest rates are elevated — the more likely there will be a bigger problem that we don’t see yet. Refinancing in real estate will be a major issue in the next three years. The Treasury’s ability to refinance $7.6 trillion in debt in the next two years will likely drive interest rates higher. And there’s that question of what’s happening within the banking sector as we move toward March 2024, and the Fed needs to address its bailout programs. This is a very tricky market — and I agree with Stanley Druckenmiller that the next few years will be quite complicated. As I’ll explain in Tactical Wealth Investor next week, the time to focus on the long term is now. Investors need to purchase great businesses that have real demand. But we must pay very close attention to current valuations. The threat of valuation compression is very real — and it’s a bit alarming that so many different stocks are currently priced for growth at price-to-earnings multiples north of 25. We will need to be very selective with our choices. Tomorrow, I’ll be back with more insight on Midstream in the Energy sector. Here is a place of strong demand, great yields and appreciation upside. [] Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] Cut Through the Noise With Roger’s ProTrader Dashboard! When Roger Scott [launched his ProTrader Dashboard]( on Monday, he wasn’t 100% sure how everyone would react to it. But one thing he is sure of… If you’re ever going to have a chance to profit from the same opportunities as Wall Street, the ProTrader Dashboard is the best tool for the job… And that’s why when these messages from his top students came in… Roger knew he’d [created something phenomenal:]( - “I started with $4,000 and now have over $8,000 in just 15 days” - James B - All you do is make us $$$. Thank you!” - David M. - “Hey Roger, a big THANK YOU for all the trade ideas this week! Benefiting greatly from your work and education. I made $2,270 so far!” - Brett M. - “I am on a 16 trade winning streak all puts!” - Tim - “WOW, I am making some serious cash!” - Jeffrey B. - “Thank you Roger, four trades over 80% gains on these past few days for CHWY, JKS, DHI, EL!”- Nena Granted, some trades were bigger, some were smaller and some even resulted in a loss… as is always the case with trading. But these are your peers — regular traders and regular folks just like you… If you missed out on the Protrader Dashboard launch [Get Up To Speed Here!]( [] *The profits and performance shown are not typical, we make no future earnings claims and you may lose money. The alerts expressed are trades Roger published in real time using the ProTrader Dashboard in his VIP room over the summer. There were bigger winners, there were smaller winners, and there were losers. Trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is RED Momentum and the S&P 500 is now barreling back toward its 200-day moving average. We’ll see if it can buck the trend and take the market higher. The MACD on the SPY is on the verge of turning positive, which would be a very bullish situation. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States