The Trend That Never Went Away

[] Today's market commentary from TradingPub is here! To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( [] [] [] The Trend That Never Went Away Amazon headlines a busy week of technology earnings reports. Investors anticipate another solid quarter for the e-commerce giant, even in the face of worrisome economic data. Three years ago, when the COVID-19 crisis hit the U.S. economy, the big winner was the e-commerce industry. The pandemic changed consumer behavior so much that it moved the adoption curve of e-commerce forward by five years, with more consumers tapping into online shopping portals to fill their needs. At the peak of COVID-19, the percentage of non-store retail sales as part of total advanced retail sales (less food service, gas, motor vehicles and grocery) hit 35.7%, according to MishTalk. After a slight rebound in brick-and-mortar sales after the reopening of the U.S. economy, that figure has bounced back to 34%. It’s on pace to continue rising through the decade. It’s very clear: The trend away from brick-and-mortar sales will only accelerate. Here are the winners and losers. E-Commerce Winner No. 1: Walmart While all eyes remain on Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), Walmart has dramatically increased its online presence. Its Q1 online sales rose by 27%, which helped propel the stock to all-time highs. Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is the largest brick-and-mortar retailer, and the largest grocery operator in the United States. Today, 90% of the American population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart. Its e-commerce growth has been fueled by its redesign of its online platform, its increasing partnerships with third-party operators, and its commitment to pushing buyers to join its membership program Walmart+. Walmart is the only player that can compete against the aggressive sales strategies of Amazon. Expect the company to remain largely recession proof in the future, and for sales to remain robust in its growing e-commerce channel. E-Commerce Loser No. 1: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) What will the economy look like with 8% mortgage rates, 23% credit card rates, and a collapse in consumer savings? Well, we’ll start to find out. Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (NYSE: SKT) is a popular outlet center for many brands across the retail sector. We’ll keep a close eye on foot traffic heading into the holiday shopping season. But this stock is trading at a very high multiple. The price-to-earnings ratio is 28x, which is typically a level reserved for growth stocks, not companies that rent out real estate to commercial brands and rely heavily on the U.S. consumer. Tread carefully, as outlet centers are Patient Zero for a secular decline. They typically don’t have the entertainment options that traditional malls provide — and they can only compete on price. If more Americans are shopping at Walmart, fewer will shop at outlets — which are a destination shopping event. E-Commerce Winner No. 2: Alphabet This might come as a surprise to many given the fact that they equate with traditional consumer search. Google parent Alphabet Inc. Class C (Nasdaq: GOOG) has made big moves in recent years in product search and online advertising, and all roads still go through the search giant’s dominance in its bread-and-butter space. Alphabet is a forever stock, one that is trading back near 52-week highs despite concerns about the U.S. economy and rising bond prices. E-Commerce Loser No. 2: Chewy Typically, I’d argue that Americans love their pets as much as their children. Chewy Inc. (NYSE: CHWY), an online pet retailer for food and other products, made a huge splash during the post-COVID-19 months. Shares popped above $118 in February 2021. Today, shares broke under $17.00 and are off more than 51% in 2023. Here’s the problem: It may still be MASSIVELY overvalued, trading at a PE ratio of 148x. The company faces a wealth of challenges linked to inflation, customer retention and valuations. This stock is the definition of a falling knife, and investors would be smart to avoid it until it finds some level of stability. E-commerce is a trend that hasn’t gone away. It will continue to grow market share in the consumer economy, and will eat into the profitability of brick-and-mortar retail in the future. It’s a good reminder to always revisit dominant trends and don’t get caught up in flashy, unprofitable whims. [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] A New Way to Trade — You Don’t Need a 5-Figure Account Word has gotten out about [the strategy behind one unique trade move]( that allows us to target wins… regardless of where a stock goes! And now, even the mainstream analysts are raving about it: The Wall Street Journal wrote that this loophole can “Juice returns in any market.” SeekingAlpha wrote… “Excellent strategy to generate steady, reliable income.” Fidelity says this trick helps “reduce risk.” Even Investopedia declared: “Now you can get paid 52 times per year.” [But there’s more…]( Typically, under usual circumstances, even if you knew the trade move and the strategy behind it… You’d still need at least $25,000 in your account to take the trades… Which is why regular folks have not been able to use this strategy before. [Until Now!]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is RED Markets remain under significant pressure this week, and we’ve moved into the Fear stage of this situation. The S&P 500 is trying to find a bottom in the near term. Short-term, six-month bonds now pay a higher return than the yield of the S&P 500 for the first time in more than 20 years. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] [] [] The Trend That Never Went Away Amazon headlines a busy week of technology earnings reports. Investors anticipate another solid quarter for the e-commerce giant, even in the face of worrisome economic data. Three years ago, when the COVID-19 crisis hit the U.S. economy, the big winner was the e-commerce industry. The pandemic changed consumer behavior so much that it moved the adoption curve of e-commerce forward by five years, with more consumers tapping into online shopping portals to fill their needs. At the peak of COVID-19, the percentage of non-store retail sales as part of total advanced retail sales (less food service, gas, motor vehicles and grocery) hit 35.7%, according to MishTalk. After a slight rebound in brick-and-mortar sales after the reopening of the U.S. economy, that figure has bounced back to 34%. It’s on pace to continue rising through the decade. It’s very clear: The trend away from brick-and-mortar sales will only accelerate. Here are the winners and losers. E-Commerce Winner No. 1: Walmart While all eyes remain on Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), Walmart has dramatically increased its online presence. Its Q1 online sales rose by 27%, which helped propel the stock to all-time highs. Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is the largest brick-and-mortar retailer, and the largest grocery operator in the United States. Today, 90% of the American population lives within 10 miles of a Walmart. Its e-commerce growth has been fueled by its redesign of its online platform, its increasing partnerships with third-party operators, and its commitment to pushing buyers to join its membership program Walmart+. Walmart is the only player that can compete against the aggressive sales strategies of Amazon. Expect the company to remain largely recession proof in the future, and for sales to remain robust in its growing e-commerce channel. E-Commerce Loser No. 1: Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) What will the economy look like with 8% mortgage rates, 23% credit card rates, and a collapse in consumer savings? Well, we’ll start to find out. Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (NYSE: SKT) is a popular outlet center for many brands across the retail sector. We’ll keep a close eye on foot traffic heading into the holiday shopping season. But this stock is trading at a very high multiple. The price-to-earnings ratio is 28x, which is typically a level reserved for growth stocks, not companies that rent out real estate to commercial brands and rely heavily on the U.S. consumer. Tread carefully, as outlet centers are Patient Zero for a secular decline. They typically don’t have the entertainment options that traditional malls provide — and they can only compete on price. If more Americans are shopping at Walmart, fewer will shop at outlets — which are a destination shopping event. E-Commerce Winner No. 2: Alphabet This might come as a surprise to many given the fact that they equate with traditional consumer search. Google parent Alphabet Inc. Class C (Nasdaq: GOOG) has made big moves in recent years in product search and online advertising, and all roads still go through the search giant’s dominance in its bread-and-butter space. Alphabet is a forever stock, one that is trading back near 52-week highs despite concerns about the U.S. economy and rising bond prices. E-Commerce Loser No. 2: Chewy Typically, I’d argue that Americans love their pets as much as their children. Chewy Inc. (NYSE: CHWY), an online pet retailer for food and other products, made a huge splash during the post-COVID-19 months. Shares popped above $118 in February 2021. Today, shares broke under $17.00 and are off more than 51% in 2023. Here’s the problem: It may still be MASSIVELY overvalued, trading at a PE ratio of 148x. The company faces a wealth of challenges linked to inflation, customer retention and valuations. This stock is the definition of a falling knife, and investors would be smart to avoid it until it finds some level of stability. E-commerce is a trend that hasn’t gone away. It will continue to grow market share in the consumer economy, and will eat into the profitability of brick-and-mortar retail in the future. It’s a good reminder to always revisit dominant trends and don’t get caught up in flashy, unprofitable whims. [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] A New Way to Trade — You Don’t Need a 5-Figure Account Word has gotten out about [the strategy behind one unique trade move]( that allows us to target wins… regardless of where a stock goes! And now, even the mainstream analysts are raving about it: The Wall Street Journal wrote that this loophole can “Juice returns in any market.” SeekingAlpha wrote… “Excellent strategy to generate steady, reliable income.” Fidelity says this trick helps “reduce risk.” Even Investopedia declared: “Now you can get paid 52 times per year.” [But there’s more…]( Typically, under usual circumstances, even if you knew the trade move and the strategy behind it… You’d still need at least $25,000 in your account to take the trades… Which is why regular folks have not been able to use this strategy before. [Until Now!]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is RED Markets remain under significant pressure this week, and we’ve moved into the Fear stage of this situation. The S&P 500 is trying to find a bottom in the near term. Short-term, six-month bonds now pay a higher return than the yield of the S&P 500 for the first time in more than 20 years. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States