Momentum Pain Continues. Here’s What Could Be Next

[] Today's market commentary from TradingPub is here! To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( [] [] [] Momentum Pain Continues…. Now What? The S&P 500 is now down for the third straight week… I’m still sitting on the sideline. Momentum turned red again on Sept. 5, and equities have been in a steady decline once again. What’s causing the pain? And what’s the forecast for October? Let’s talk about the state of the markets… and three things you need to watch. Pain Point 1: Interest Rates The dollar has experienced a sharp run higher in recent weeks. Negative momentum, liquidity weakness and rising yields put pressure on risk assets, creating a rush for higher-quality assets. The U.S. dollar is once again the cleanest sheet in the laundry. But things may continue on this pathway as markets face a major challenge. The U.S. government needs to roll over trillions in existing debt at higher interest rates while financing what will likely be another $2 trillion in deficit spending next year. The bond market doesn’t lie. The 30-year bond popped to 4.7% today. And with questions about long-term duration weighing in this market (the three-month bond is 5% while the 10-year is 4.6%), the government wants investors to put money in the longer-term, lower-yield category. Simply put, the 10-year needs to rise higher — putting greater pressure on the equity markets. Pain Point 2: Higher Oil Prices Inflation remains another problem as the cost of energy rises across the markets. The sudden and severe climb in crude oil over the last few months is eating into the consumer’s purchasing power. But don’t get too comfortable right now. The cure for high prices is typically high prices, and the ability for producers to hedge at these levels and run wide margins could be very tempting. Western drillers in Texas and Colorado would need to avoid that temptation, and I’m not convinced they will continue just sitting on the sideline. Here’s the thing: A sudden uptick in production could weigh quickly on oil stocks — which have been on a meteoric rise over the last month. Combined with higher interest rates and falling prices due to a risk-based sell-off (profit taking), the markets could falter similarly to what we witnessed during a massive energy sell-off in June 2022. If you’re an oil investor, it’s time to tighten your stop or sell calls on your existing positions. Pay close attention to the MACD on the S&P 500 Energy Select Fund (NYSEArca: XLE). The sector is trying to maintain its momentum , but I worry that something negative is brewing after this historic rally since June. [] Pain Point 3: Defaults With mortgage rates rising, American credit card debt over $1 trillion, the return of student loan payments, and the threat of loan quality deterioration in the banking sector, markets are waking up to pending defaults. We’ve heard much about commercial real estate exposure concerns for financial companies. But we haven’t seen the fallout yet. It’s starting to rear its head. Meanwhile, the average APR of credit cards has popped to an uncomfortable 21%. Home mortgages are now above 7.7%, while used auto loans have ballooned. The Fed is still using the blunt hammer of rate hikes, and the bond market suggests that the cost of capital will again need to move higher in this economy. All while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warns that we might not have interest rates at a high enough level to stop inflation. There’s a cure for inflation. The Fed could advocate that the government slash its deficit and stop pumping money into the system. But that’s not going to happen. Washington is trying to prevent a recession more than it’s concerned about 3% inflation in the year ahead. Buckle up. It will be a bumpy period for traders and investors into 2024. One of the most important things to consider is what executives do with their money. Tomorrow, I’ll talk more about how to use executive purchases to improve your conviction and find undervalued stocks. [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] Unless You’ve Worked on Wall Street, You’d Never Know This Existed There’s an “invisible hand” that can [control where any stock is heading next.]( It doesn't show up on the balance sheet…or on a stock’s chart… It’s nowhere to be found when you look at the fundamentals… And it’s completely undetected by commonly used valuation metrics. Unless you're on the inside… working on Wall Street… or for one of the top firms… You’d never know it even exists. But once you can see this “invisible hand” for yourself… And how it can completely control a stock’s every move… [You’ll Never See the Market the Same Again]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] [] [] Momentum Pain Continues…. Now What? The S&P 500 is now down for the third straight week… I’m still sitting on the sideline. Momentum turned red again on Sept. 5, and equities have been in a steady decline once again. What’s causing the pain? And what’s the forecast for October? Let’s talk about the state of the markets… and three things you need to watch. Pain Point 1: Interest Rates The dollar has experienced a sharp run higher in recent weeks. Negative momentum, liquidity weakness and rising yields put pressure on risk assets, creating a rush for higher-quality assets. The U.S. dollar is once again the cleanest sheet in the laundry. But things may continue on this pathway as markets face a major challenge. The U.S. government needs to roll over trillions in existing debt at higher interest rates while financing what will likely be another $2 trillion in deficit spending next year. The bond market doesn’t lie. The 30-year bond popped to 4.7% today. And with questions about long-term duration weighing in this market (the three-month bond is 5% while the 10-year is 4.6%), the government wants investors to put money in the longer-term, lower-yield category. Simply put, the 10-year needs to rise higher — putting greater pressure on the equity markets. Pain Point 2: Higher Oil Prices Inflation remains another problem as the cost of energy rises across the markets. The sudden and severe climb in crude oil over the last few months is eating into the consumer’s purchasing power. But don’t get too comfortable right now. The cure for high prices is typically high prices, and the ability for producers to hedge at these levels and run wide margins could be very tempting. Western drillers in Texas and Colorado would need to avoid that temptation, and I’m not convinced they will continue just sitting on the sideline. Here’s the thing: A sudden uptick in production could weigh quickly on oil stocks — which have been on a meteoric rise over the last month. Combined with higher interest rates and falling prices due to a risk-based sell-off (profit taking), the markets could falter similarly to what we witnessed during a massive energy sell-off in June 2022. If you’re an oil investor, it’s time to tighten your stop or sell calls on your existing positions. Pay close attention to the MACD on the S&P 500 Energy Select Fund (NYSEArca: XLE). The sector is trying to maintain its momentum , but I worry that something negative is brewing after this historic rally since June. [] Pain Point 3: Defaults With mortgage rates rising, American credit card debt over $1 trillion, the return of student loan payments, and the threat of loan quality deterioration in the banking sector, markets are waking up to pending defaults. We’ve heard much about commercial real estate exposure concerns for financial companies. But we haven’t seen the fallout yet. It’s starting to rear its head. Meanwhile, the average APR of credit cards has popped to an uncomfortable 21%. Home mortgages are now above 7.7%, while used auto loans have ballooned. The Fed is still using the blunt hammer of rate hikes, and the bond market suggests that the cost of capital will again need to move higher in this economy. All while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warns that we might not have interest rates at a high enough level to stop inflation. There’s a cure for inflation. The Fed could advocate that the government slash its deficit and stop pumping money into the system. But that’s not going to happen. Washington is trying to prevent a recession more than it’s concerned about 3% inflation in the year ahead. Buckle up. It will be a bumpy period for traders and investors into 2024. One of the most important things to consider is what executives do with their money. Tomorrow, I’ll talk more about how to use executive purchases to improve your conviction and find undervalued stocks. [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] Unless You’ve Worked on Wall Street, You’d Never Know This Existed There’s an “invisible hand” that can [control where any stock is heading next.]( It doesn't show up on the balance sheet…or on a stock’s chart… It’s nowhere to be found when you look at the fundamentals… And it’s completely undetected by commonly used valuation metrics. Unless you're on the inside… working on Wall Street… or for one of the top firms… You’d never know it even exists. But once you can see this “invisible hand” for yourself… And how it can completely control a stock’s every move… [You’ll Never See the Market the Same Again]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States