5 Trends Driving the Energy Supercycle — a Review

[] Today's market commentary from TradingPub is here! To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( [] [] [] Miss my energy supercycle conversations this week? Then join me LIVE at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday — [save your seat here!]( 5 Trends Driving the Energy Supercycle — a Review The Energy sector is the only one that has remained in positive territory for the last three months. Capital continues to rotate into the sector thanks to supply concerns and massive crack spreads in the refinery industry. While there’s been some selling since the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, the sector is the only one on my screen that is still in positive territory. That’s because investors at major institutions see the writing on the wall... If any sell-off comes, I welcome it. Because I want to be on the right side of the coming bull market in energy equities over the next few years. Welcome to the Energy Supercycle. What’s Driving the Energy Supercycle? Let’s briefly discuss the five biggest trends that will drive this supercycle. It’s all very basic. 1. SupplyThe United States is set to reach its highest level of production ever next year. But it sure doesn’t feel like it. A lack of pipeline capacity incentivizes the U.S. to send production to refineries along the Gulf Coast, where it’s then promptly sold into South America. What’s worse is that U.S. producers aren’t turning on the taps at a breakneck pace even with crude at these price levels. Many energy producers learned their lesson not to produce more oil and chase prices after a disaster in 2014. Back then, U.S. crude producers turned on the taps, and oil fell from $100 to $40 in less than 18 months. That won’t happen again. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is cutting production right now in an effort to fund their economies. Russia is moving more oil to India and China, and the Saudis are happy to produce less crude if it means more money. A nation that can produce 9 million barrels per day at $90 per barrel will make more money than a country that produces 10 million barrels a day at $80 per barrel. 2. Demand Demand is set to top 100 million barrels around the globe each day in 2024. With liquidity expanding off the bottom of the October 2022 market cycle, look for Chinese demand to increase (not decrease). Despite all of the bluster around alternative energy, we have barely made a dent in the global energy demand structure. And while the president and people like California Gov. Gavin Newsom talk about shutting down Big Oil, the U.S. is still forecasting robust oil demand through at least 2055 for the transportation sector. Don’t listen to these people. Focus on what the Energy Information Administration and the academics are saying. Everything else is just political noise. 3. RegulationThey can crow all they want about shutting down Big Oil, but they’ll only create a supply problem in 10 years. We don’t have enough industrial metals to create all the electric vehicles set in the mandates. And while we’ve reduced production capacity in Alaska and in the Gulf of Mexico, they will rue the day when a great supply/demand imbalance happens in U.S. transportation. It will lead to stagflation in the economy. 4. Capital ConstraintsThe ESG movement has had a robust impact on crude production in the U.S. It has driven up the cost of capital in a dramatic way. Goldman Sachs notes that the cost of capital in 2011 for new oil projects was 8%. Today, that figure is in the high teens. Solar, meanwhile, has dropped from 8% to 3%. Access to capital remains a challenge… on a global scale. In fact, JPMorgan has projected that the amount of capital needed to help meet the global demand expected in the next five years is short roughly $500 billion. 5. Capital DisciplineThe last part is linked to the 2014 decline in oil prices. Simply put, American producers aren’t set to ramp up. They’re happy to sit back, buy back stock, increase dividends, and pay down debt. They’re happy to reward their shareholders. The government continues to demand that they produce more oil, but the average new well has a payback period of 20 to 30 years. With a government that wants to knock out oil by 2035, good luck getting them to spend and increase their capital expenditures. In a few years, we’ll be BEGGING them to produce more oil when the cost of metals in EVs continues to rise, and most Americans can’t afford them. Conclusion We’re on the verge of a supercycle for the commodity sectors, with oil leading in a big way. Tomorrow, I’ll be live at 2 p.m. ET to discuss the coming energy supercycle, and give investors access to my three favorite energy stocks for the long haul. Plus, I’ll reveal the No. 1 energy supercycle stock for traders. Join the fun here: [( [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] Ready for the Energy Supercycle of the Decade? Want to front-run what billionaires are calling the “supercycle of the decade”? Legendary investors like… • Warren Buffett. • Bill Gross. • Steven Cohen. • Carl Icahn. • Ray Dalio. • Larry Fink. They’re all [betting BIG on this emerging financial trend.]( In fact, Buffett is making one of the biggest investments of his entire career on the back of this trend! A trend he calls… “The greatest generational opportunity of a lifetime.” And you can get in on his $11 billion dollar bet, too! So heads up because this winter is going to be one like no other. [Check This Out!]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is RED Momentum is red. No major updates, but investors are worried about higher-for-longer interest rates. That’s the story of the day. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] [] [] Miss my energy supercycle conversations this week? Then join me LIVE at 2 p.m. ET on Saturday — [save your seat here!]( 5 Trends Driving the Energy Supercycle — a Review The Energy sector is the only one that has remained in positive territory for the last three months. Capital continues to rotate into the sector thanks to supply concerns and massive crack spreads in the refinery industry. While there’s been some selling since the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday, the sector is the only one on my screen that is still in positive territory. That’s because investors at major institutions see the writing on the wall... If any sell-off comes, I welcome it. Because I want to be on the right side of the coming bull market in energy equities over the next few years. Welcome to the Energy Supercycle. What’s Driving the Energy Supercycle? Let’s briefly discuss the five biggest trends that will drive this supercycle. It’s all very basic. 1. SupplyThe United States is set to reach its highest level of production ever next year. But it sure doesn’t feel like it. A lack of pipeline capacity incentivizes the U.S. to send production to refineries along the Gulf Coast, where it’s then promptly sold into South America. What’s worse is that U.S. producers aren’t turning on the taps at a breakneck pace even with crude at these price levels. Many energy producers learned their lesson not to produce more oil and chase prices after a disaster in 2014. Back then, U.S. crude producers turned on the taps, and oil fell from $100 to $40 in less than 18 months. That won’t happen again. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is cutting production right now in an effort to fund their economies. Russia is moving more oil to India and China, and the Saudis are happy to produce less crude if it means more money. A nation that can produce 9 million barrels per day at $90 per barrel will make more money than a country that produces 10 million barrels a day at $80 per barrel. 2. Demand Demand is set to top 100 million barrels around the globe each day in 2024. With liquidity expanding off the bottom of the October 2022 market cycle, look for Chinese demand to increase (not decrease). Despite all of the bluster around alternative energy, we have barely made a dent in the global energy demand structure. And while the president and people like California Gov. Gavin Newsom talk about shutting down Big Oil, the U.S. is still forecasting robust oil demand through at least 2055 for the transportation sector. Don’t listen to these people. Focus on what the Energy Information Administration and the academics are saying. Everything else is just political noise. 3. RegulationThey can crow all they want about shutting down Big Oil, but they’ll only create a supply problem in 10 years. We don’t have enough industrial metals to create all the electric vehicles set in the mandates. And while we’ve reduced production capacity in Alaska and in the Gulf of Mexico, they will rue the day when a great supply/demand imbalance happens in U.S. transportation. It will lead to stagflation in the economy. 4. Capital ConstraintsThe ESG movement has had a robust impact on crude production in the U.S. It has driven up the cost of capital in a dramatic way. Goldman Sachs notes that the cost of capital in 2011 for new oil projects was 8%. Today, that figure is in the high teens. Solar, meanwhile, has dropped from 8% to 3%. Access to capital remains a challenge… on a global scale. In fact, JPMorgan has projected that the amount of capital needed to help meet the global demand expected in the next five years is short roughly $500 billion. 5. Capital DisciplineThe last part is linked to the 2014 decline in oil prices. Simply put, American producers aren’t set to ramp up. They’re happy to sit back, buy back stock, increase dividends, and pay down debt. They’re happy to reward their shareholders. The government continues to demand that they produce more oil, but the average new well has a payback period of 20 to 30 years. With a government that wants to knock out oil by 2035, good luck getting them to spend and increase their capital expenditures. In a few years, we’ll be BEGGING them to produce more oil when the cost of metals in EVs continues to rise, and most Americans can’t afford them. Conclusion We’re on the verge of a supercycle for the commodity sectors, with oil leading in a big way. Tomorrow, I’ll be live at 2 p.m. ET to discuss the coming energy supercycle, and give investors access to my three favorite energy stocks for the long haul. Plus, I’ll reveal the No. 1 energy supercycle stock for traders. Join the fun here: [( [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] Ready for the Energy Supercycle of the Decade? Want to front-run what billionaires are calling the “supercycle of the decade”? Legendary investors like… - Warren Buffett. - Bill Gross. - Steven Cohen. - Carl Icahn. - Ray Dalio. - Larry Fink. They’re all [betting BIG on this emerging financial trend.]( In fact, Buffett is making one of the biggest investments of his entire career on the back of this trend! A trend he calls… “The greatest generational opportunity of a lifetime.” And you can get in on his $11 billion dollar bet, too! So heads up because this winter is going to be one like no other. [Check This Out!]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is RED Momentum is red. No major updates, but investors are worried about higher-for-longer interest rates. That’s the story of the day. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] _______________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. 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You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States