How to Trade and Invest for $100 Oil

[] Today's market commentary from TradingPub is here! To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( To view this email as a web page, go [here.]( [] [] [] I’ll be live at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday to show everyone how to trade the next energy supercycle — [save your seat here!]( How to Trade and Invest for $100 Oil Chevron Chair and CEO Michael Wirth isn’t going out on a limb. With Brent crude sitting at $92 per barrel, the executive at one of the world’s largest energy firms projects we’ll see triple-digit crude prices by the end of the year. The reason? Supply. On the global front, demand remains robust. Markets anticipate global demand will top 100 million barrels per day next year. So… why is everyone cutting production? OPEC+ — the global cartel with its finger on the button for global supply — has engaged in rampant production cuts over the last few months. Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s largest member, voluntarily decided to cut its production by a million barrels per day through the end of the year. Russia is reducing its output — and keeping supplies domestic — to maintain lower costs for farmers as they wrap up their harvests. Libya is experiencing supply disruptions due to massive flooding after a dam broke. The country had been producing about a million barrels per day in August. They won’t be able to get a lot of crude out of the ports. And then there’s the curious case of the United States. The number of U.S. oil and gas rigs on Sept. 8, 2023, hit 632. That’s down from 759 at the same time in 2022. The U.S. has run down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to levels we haven’t seen since the early 1980s (when it was increasing). Refiners are buying up everything they can — drawing down private stocks as well. As we kick into the end of September, U.S. farmers face much higher diesel fuel prices. Where Oil Heads Next The cure for high commodity prices is usually… higher prices. But U.S. energy companies won’t make the same mistake they made in 2014. THat’s when oil popped above $100 per barrel on the back of widespread speculation and increasing demand. Producers across Texas turned on the taps. Every CEO tried to make as much money off triple-digit prices by increasing production. And it ended VERY badly. Within 18 months, the market was oversupplied and crude prices fell under $40 per barrel. Shareholders canned many CEOs. It would take years for prices to recover. Around 2018, new CEOs and the ones who survived had to make a decision. If they didn’t start enhancing shareholder value, a lot of big investors and funds were set to dump their stock. So they started increasing buybacks… hiking dividends… and paying off debt with cash flow. Instead of ramping up production and investing in new wells, they turned their attention to recovering stock prices. While COVID-19 disrupted that rebound for a brief period in 2020, companies have been exercising capital discipline as the priority. This is evident by the countless oil-and-gas producers that have F scores of 7, 8 or 9 right now. The F score is a nine-point metric that focuses on improvements in the balance sheet. High scores are very common in the energy space right now. Oil producers aren’t going to hike output. Not only is it bad right now for shareholders, it isn’t politically feasible either. Certain leaders in the Biden administration have openly advocated for ending U.S. oil production. The Bureau of Land Management, for example, just shut down future Alaska production, despite congress authorizing the permitting. Most oil wells have long-term payoff periods ranging from 20 to 30 years. But if the government is trying to ban gas-powered vehicles within 15 years at the state and federal levels, then their return on investment won’t work. What’s Next I don’t believe oil prices will sustain above $100 per barrel for an extended period. However, I am raising my floor on oil investment. I’ve long advocated that energy investors put money into companies on the expectation that oil would trade between $70 and $75. But now, I expect the floor to increase to about $80 per barrel. One of the best ways to know what stocks to own in the energy patch is to focus on a specific metric I use. I’ll talk about this at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 19 — [join the fun here!]( — and offer some deep insight into the investment opportunities in places like Texas and Colorado, where production costs are cheaper. Margins are expected to remain robust for energy producers in the future. Don’t get overly distracted by the cost of oil per barrel. Instead, focus on the companies looking to bring production down. A company that can produce oil at $25 per barrel and sell it for $80 will make a lot more money than a company producing at $60 per barrel and selling at $100. Be sure to [join me tomorrow at 2 p.m. ET.]( [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] Ready for the Energy Supercycle of the Decade? Want to front-run what billionaires are calling the “supercycle of the decade”? Legendary investors like… • Warren Buffett. • Bill Gross. • Steven Cohen. • Carl Icahn. • Ray Dalio. • Larry Fink. They’re all [betting BIG on this emerging financial trend.]( In fact, Buffett is making one of the biggest investments of his entire career on the back of this trend! A trend he calls… “The greatest generational opportunity of a lifetime.” And you can get in on his $11 billion dollar bet, too! So heads up because this winter is going to be one like no other. [Check This Out!]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is RED The markets are trying to rebound today as we head toward the next FOMC meeting and rate decision on Tuesday and Wednesday. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the market get a little bounce heading into Powell’s speech. But from there… all bets are off. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] ___________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] [] [] I’ll be live at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday to show everyone how to trade the next energy supercycle — [save your seat here!]( How to Trade and Invest for $100 Oil Chevron Chair and CEO Michael Wirth isn’t going out on a limb. With Brent crude sitting at $92 per barrel, the executive at one of the world’s largest energy firms projects we’ll see triple-digit crude prices by the end of the year. The reason? Supply. On the global front, demand remains robust. Markets anticipate global demand will top 100 million barrels per day next year. So… why is everyone cutting production? OPEC+ — the global cartel with its finger on the button for global supply — has engaged in rampant production cuts over the last few months. Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s largest member, voluntarily decided to cut its production by a million barrels per day through the end of the year. Russia is reducing its output — and keeping supplies domestic — to maintain lower costs for farmers as they wrap up their harvests. Libya is experiencing supply disruptions due to massive flooding after a dam broke. The country had been producing about a million barrels per day in August. They won’t be able to get a lot of crude out of the ports. And then there’s the curious case of the United States. The number of U.S. oil and gas rigs on Sept. 8, 2023, hit 632. That’s down from 759 at the same time in 2022. The U.S. has run down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to levels we haven’t seen since the early 1980s (when it was increasing). Refiners are buying up everything they can — drawing down private stocks as well. As we kick into the end of September, U.S. farmers face much higher diesel fuel prices. Where Oil Heads Next The cure for high commodity prices is usually… higher prices. But U.S. energy companies won’t make the same mistake they made in 2014. THat’s when oil popped above $100 per barrel on the back of widespread speculation and increasing demand. Producers across Texas turned on the taps. Every CEO tried to make as much money off triple-digit prices by increasing production. And it ended VERY badly. Within 18 months, the market was oversupplied and crude prices fell under $40 per barrel. Shareholders canned many CEOs. It would take years for prices to recover. Around 2018, new CEOs and the ones who survived had to make a decision. If they didn’t start enhancing shareholder value, a lot of big investors and funds were set to dump their stock. So they started increasing buybacks… hiking dividends… and paying off debt with cash flow. Instead of ramping up production and investing in new wells, they turned their attention to recovering stock prices. While COVID-19 disrupted that rebound for a brief period in 2020, companies have been exercising capital discipline as the priority. This is evident by the countless oil-and-gas producers that have F scores of 7, 8 or 9 right now. The F score is a nine-point metric that focuses on improvements in the balance sheet. High scores are very common in the energy space right now. Oil producers aren’t going to hike output. Not only is it bad right now for shareholders, it isn’t politically feasible either. Certain leaders in the Biden administration have openly advocated for ending U.S. oil production. The Bureau of Land Management, for example, just shut down future Alaska production, despite congress authorizing the permitting. Most oil wells have long-term payoff periods ranging from 20 to 30 years. But if the government is trying to ban gas-powered vehicles within 15 years at the state and federal levels, then their return on investment won’t work. What’s Next I don’t believe oil prices will sustain above $100 per barrel for an extended period. However, I am raising my floor on oil investment. I’ve long advocated that energy investors put money into companies on the expectation that oil would trade between $70 and $75. But now, I expect the floor to increase to about $80 per barrel. One of the best ways to know what stocks to own in the energy patch is to focus on a specific metric I use. I’ll talk about this at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sept. 19 — [join the fun here!]( — and offer some deep insight into the investment opportunities in places like Texas and Colorado, where production costs are cheaper. Margins are expected to remain robust for energy producers in the future. Don’t get overly distracted by the cost of oil per barrel. Instead, focus on the companies looking to bring production down. A company that can produce oil at $25 per barrel and sell it for $80 will make a lot more money than a company producing at $60 per barrel and selling at $100. Be sure to [join me tomorrow at 2 p.m. ET.]( [] Chat soon, Garrett {NAME} *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is an inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] [] _________________________________________________ [] Ready for the Energy Supercycle of the Decade? Want to front-run what billionaires are calling the “supercycle of the decade”? Legendary investors like… - Warren Buffett. - Bill Gross. - Steven Cohen. - Carl Icahn. - Ray Dalio. - Larry Fink. They’re all [betting BIG on this emerging financial trend.]( In fact, Buffett is making one of the biggest investments of his entire career on the back of this trend! A trend he calls… “The greatest generational opportunity of a lifetime.” And you can get in on his $11 billion dollar bet, too! So heads up because this winter is going to be one like no other. [Check This Out!]( [] _______________________________________________ [] Market Momentum is RED The markets are trying to rebound today as we head toward the next FOMC meeting and rate decision on Tuesday and Wednesday. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the market get a little bounce heading into Powell’s speech. But from there… all bets are off. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. [] ___________________________________________ [] Want to get a link to my TradingPub articles as soon as they post? I’ve got you covered! Telegram is an entirely free messaging app and getting access is as easy as 1… 2… 3… 1. Download Telegram on your mobile device (Before you can add Telegram to your desktop computer, you must download the application on your phone and create your account: To download to your iPhone, [click here](. To download to your Android device, [click here](. After the download is complete, please create an account. NOTE: You can manage your privacy settings by clicking “Settings,” and then “Privacy & Security.” 2. Download Telegram on your desktop: Once you’ve downloaded Telegram onto your mobile device and created your personal account, you can download it onto your desktop computer. To download onto your PC, [click here](. To download onto your MacOS, [click here](. 3. Then add the TradingPub channel and you’re done: [9_jjnFuAvno0MjNh]( See you there! Garrett [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [] A TradingPub Publication ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States