Is interest rate relief on the horizon?

Plus, Trudeau's hopes for Trump and Ottawa capping international students [The Star] First Up [By Kevin Jiang] By Kevin Jiang Good morning. Here’s the latest on when to expect interest rate relief, Justin Trudeau’ hopes for a boost from Donald Trump and how caps on international students might reduce rent. DON’T MISS Andrew Francis Wallace/The Star cost of living [Canada’s next overnight rate announcement is expected Wednesday. Is relief on the horizon?]( As bankers prepare to deliver their first interest rate announcement of 2024, weary Canadians are hoping for relief — two years after the Bank of Canada first began aggressively hiking its key overnight lending rate. Most economists expect the bank to hold the rate at five per cent for the fourth consecutive time, as the country’s inflation rate remains stubbornly high. While rate cuts are “very likely” in 2024, the central bank is expected to be “as patient as possible for inflation and inflation expectations to retreat further,” one expert tells the Star’s Ana Pereira. [Here’s what you can expect tomorrow](. - Context: Canada’s annual core inflation metrics came in higher than expected at the end of 2023, as [its annual inflation rate rose to 3.4 per cent in December]( — an increase of 0.3 from the previous month. - Meanwhile: The dramatic interest rate hikes and heightened inflation has four in five Canadians [thinking the nation has already plunged into a recession]( (it technically hasn’t), and over half feeling pessimistic about this year. R.J. Johnston/The Star federal politics [Battered in the polls, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are looking for a boost from … Donald Trump?]( Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to lag behind Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in the polls — but he’s hoping the threat of ex-president Donald Trump’s return to the White House could change that, a senior government source tells the Star. The Liberals are “leaning into” the public obsession around Trump, in hopes it might direct attention away from the hard-to-solve problems plaguing the party of late, like inflation, housing and the handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Presidential campaigning in the U.S. might also remind voters of how the Trudeau government handled Trump as president, navigating a high-stakes renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the source continued. [Here’s what else they shared](. - What we know: Shared exclusively with the Star, the latest number from Abacus Data show Trudeau’s Liberals are entering 2024 with some of their lowest-ever levels of support, [with 58 per cent of Canadians disapproving of the current federal government](. - Meanwhile: The Liberals are expected to discuss Canada-U.S. relations today during day three of their cabinet retreat — [including how to prepare for a potential Trump victory](. Dreamstime/TNS immigration [Temporary rent relief may be on the way as Canada limits work permits for international students ]( As Canada announces a two-year cap on international study permits, aiming for a 35 per cent reduction from last year, economists speculate renters could expect temporary relief on the horizon — but other factors contributing to unaffordable housing must be addressed for a more permanent solution. Immigration-driven population growth in the country has outstripped the production of available housing, especially in urban hot-spots with large influxes of international students. But the nation has been undersupplying housing “for a very long time” now, even before the immigration hike seen in recent years, experts say. [What can renters expect going forward?]( - Context: Canada also announced new measures on Monday limiting the number of work permits granted to international students and their spouses [in hopes of curbing the rampant abuse of the program](. - More: [Ottawa was previously urged to only extend its foreign student cap to “bad actor” private colleges]( which are generally used as a quicker way to immigrate to Canada, sources say, instead of publicly assisted universities. WHAT ELSE Most Canadians now have more debt than savings, StatCan says. [What’s behind the widening wealth gap?]( An Ontario man was “factually guilty,” [but his gun case was tossed over OPP racial profiling](. The Scarborough busway may not be completed until at least 2027 — [if it happens at all](. [A Taser would have prevented Sammy Yatim’s death]( says the ex-Toronto cop who killed him. York police busted a $3.2 million auto theft ring [run by a “prolific crime group.”]( Nikki Haley finally got her chance to duel with Trump. [She never drew her gun](. [For the first time, the Pentagon has no more money for Ukraine]( as it hosts a meeting of 50 allies on support for Kyiv In Gaza, 21 Israeli soldiers were killed on Tuesday as [criticism of the war’s handling rises in Israel](. [A court is close to approving Metroland’s insolvency proposal]( after the union dropped a request for delay. A “polar coaster spring” is on the way, the 2024 Farmer’s Almanac predicts. [Here’s what to expect in Ontario](. [How post-trade Raptors lost their way against the short-handed Grizzlies](. [Norman Jewison, director of “Fiddler on the Roof” and “Moonstruck,” has died at 97](. POV Matt Rourke/AP Photo [Why media efforts to silence Donald Trump are backfiring.]( CLOSE-UP Andrew Francis Wallace/The Star TTC: Torontonians riding south from Davisville to Union were [surprised to be commuting with former Leafs defenceman Tomas Kaberle and the Stanley Cup Monday morning](. Kaberle brought the iconic trophy to town as part of a promotional event by Rogers in the lead up to this year’s NHL All-Star Weekend next month. Thank you for reading. You can reach me and the First Up team at [firstup@thestar.ca](mailto:firstup@thestar.ca?source=newsletter&utm_source=ts_nl&utm_medium=emailutm_email=6C53B63A8E3FAD70AD4EF13004527437&utm_campaign=frst_207612). I’ll see you back here tomorrow. If you're not enjoying these emails, please tell us how we can make them better by emailing newsletterfeedback@thestar.ca. 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