What the numbers say about crime in Toronto

Plus, Israel's alleged Hamas hit in Lebanon and a very bad year for Toronto home sales [The Star] First Up [By Manuela Vega] By Manuela Vega Good morning. Here’s the latest on Toronto’s changing crime rates, a Hamas leader’s assassination and a slow Toronto real estate market. DON’T MISS Steve Russell/The Star crime [What the year in crime says about Toronto’s changing criminal landscape]( Auto thefts nearly set a record in 2023, while carjackings increased and homicide rates remained steady, Emily Fagan reports. Although Toronto’s topline crime statistics hit new highs, the data shows the picture of crime in the city isn’t as bleak as it may seem at first glance — rates of gun violence, for example, fell to lows not seen since long before the pandemic. According to Louis March, the founder of Zero Gun Violence and a longtime observer of Toronto crime trends, “there’s a shift taking place.” [Take a closer look at 2023 crime rates and what it means for public safety in the year ahead](. - By the numbers: A whopping 12,143 cars were reported stolen last year, the most since the record of 12,357 set in 2003. Violent car theft, meanwhile, set an annual record in data that goes back to 2014, with 282 carjackings. - Go deeper: Gun violence reached record levels in Toronto before the pandemic, with 284 people killed or injured in 2019. Since then, it’s been on a steady decline. AFP via Getty Images analysis [Why assassinating a Hamas leader was a gamble Israel may have been willing to make]( Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the airstrike that killed Hamas deputy political leader Saleh Al-Arouri in Lebanon, numerous reports say it carried out the assassination. The death suggests Israel may be willing to roll the dice as the war rages into the new year, Allan Woods writes. [Despite warnings of retribution for extraterritorial assassinations, these factors make Al-Arouri's death look like a safe bet for Israel](. - More: Iran says at least 84 people were killed in two bombings targeting a ceremony honouring a slain general. [Here’s what we know](. - Meanwhile in the U.S.: [A second administration official has resigned in protest]( of Joe Biden’s support for the Israeli war in Gaza. - The latest: [An airstrike in central Baghdad has killed an Iran-backed militia leader]( as regional tensions escalate. Andrew Francis Wallace/The Star real estate [Toronto just saw the worst year for homes sales in 23 years ]( The real estate market took a significant hit in 2023 due to high interest rates and a slowing economy. There were 65,982 home sales, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), meaning the market was about as slow as it was in 2000, when the city’s population was just two-thirds its current size. Even during the 2008 financial crisis, home sales were higher, at 74,500, Clarrie Feinstein reports. [Check out this graphic illustrating how home prices have changed over the last two decades](. - Go deeper: “We hit a record number of sales in 2021 and last year we came in shy of 66,000. It really illustrates the impact that higher borrowing costs have had since March 2022,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer. “There is a real affordability challenge and make no mistake many want to purchase a home whether they’ve lived here their whole life or moved here recently. But the higher interest rate environment has been a real road block.” - By the numbers: The average selling price for all home types in 2023 was $1,126,604. In 2000, the average price of a home was $243,000. WHAT ELSE The environment minister admits Pierre Poilievre’s [Tories have been “very good” at demonizing the carbon levy](. [A lawsuit claims a Brampton company “refused to provide services to Jews,”]( after buses to an Ottawa rally failed to show. A Toronto developer wants to bring American-style built-to-rent single-family homes to Ontario — [could it work here?]( “Labour hoarding” is likely to be trending in 2024, economists say — [and might just be keeping your job safe](. [Toronto is paving the way for more photo radar]( with a plan to streamline ticketing. Canadian CEO pay broke records in 2022. [Here’s what their salary could buy you](. [Divided progressives are the best friends a Conservative leader could have]( Martin Regg Cohn writes. It’s tough to sort through the offerings on streaming services— [here are seven shows to watch this week](. [Aaron Rodgers vs. Jimmy Kimmel was no accident](. ESPN is playing an ugly game, Bruce Arthur writes. Court records related to Jeffrey Epstein are set to be released. [Here’s what we know so far](. POV Richard Lautens/The Star [Star Editorial Board: Ontario has an accessibility crisis. It’s time Queen’s Park acted with urgency.]( CLOSE-UP Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images JAPAN: A woman walks her dog near collapsed houses following an earthquake on Wednesday in Anamizu. A series of major earthquakes in central Japan have reportedly killed at least 48 people, injured dozens more and destroyed a large number of homes.  Thank you for reading. You can reach me and the First Up team at [firstup@thestar.ca](mailto:firstup@thestar.ca?source=newsletter&utm_source=ts_nl&utm_medium=emailutm_email=6C53B63A8E3FAD70AD4EF13004527437&utm_campaign=frst_206570). I’ll see you back here tomorrow. If you're not enjoying these emails, please tell us how we can make them better by emailing newsletterfeedback@thestar.ca. 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