There's a housing crash on the horizon — and it could be a doozy

Plus, the Emergencies Act inquiry and Canadian pensions funding Chinese human rights abuses [The Star] First Up [By Ashley Okwuosa] By Ashley Okwuosa Good morning. Here’s the latest on the emergencies act inquiry, a forecasted housing crash, and your pension’s possible ties to human rights violations. DON’T MISS Geoff Robins/AFP via Getty Images emergencies act inquiry [Border blockades turned the “Freedom Convoy” protests into a national security threat, the inquiry heard]( During the Emergencies Act inquiry on Monday, Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair said protests blocking border crossings during last winter’s so-called “Freedom Convoy” demonstrations amounted to “an attack” on Canada’s critical infrastructure and tipped the crisis into a national security threat. According to Blair, the protests interrupted “critical infrastructure,” including the flow of goods necessary for manufacturing that is crucial to the Canadian economy. [Tonda MacCharles and Alex Ballingall break down key moments from Blair’s testimony](. - More: Canadian Security Intelligence Service director David Vigneault revealed to the commission Monday that he advised Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to invoke the Emergencies Act to end the protests. [Here’s why Vigneault said the use of the act was “required.”]( - Wait, what? According to a threat assessment prepared January 26 — just days before protesters began descending on downtown Ottawa — RCMP analysts warned Trudeau’s residence might be a target for demonstrators. [Once protesters arrived in large numbers, Trudeau and his family were moved to an undisclosed location for security reasons](. - Watch for: Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino will testify this morning. Exect him to [face questions about his suggestion earlier this year that police requested the Emergencies Act, when they later asserted they did not]( Richard Lautens/The Star housing [With mortgage interest costs soaring to rates not seen since the 1990s, experts are warning of another crash]( In October, interest costs increased year-over-year by 11.4 per cent; the biggest increase since the 11.7 per cent bump recorded in February 1991, reports Clarrie Feinstein. But economists say what makes things different — and more concerning — this time is the higher household debt and home prices compared to income. In September, real estate secured debt, composed of both mortgage debt and home equity lines of credit, rose to $7.7 billion. So, what happens next? [Here’s why experts are predicting a long and hard crash](. - More: Economists forecast home prices will decline by as much as 30 per cent from February 2022 to spring 2023, resulting in a housing crash. The housing crash in the 1990s lasted six years, taking the market almost a decade to recover. - Context: According to the National Bank of Canada, a home mortgage in the second quarter of 2022 takes 63.9 per cent of income to service — the most since 1982. While home prices have dropped since their February 2022 peak, affordability has deteriorated on the back of rising mortgage interest rates. - Now what? For the market to correct itself and become more affordable, mortgage rates need to drop by two percentage points, which is unlikely, said one economist. The alternative is for home prices to drop by at least 25 per cent. Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images star exclusive [Could your pension plan be funding human-rights abuses in China?]( A new report by U.K.-based human rights organization Hong Kong Watch claims at least three federal and six provincial pension funds in Canada are investing in Chinese companies complicit in human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Joanna Chiu and Jeremy Nuttall report. The report analyzed component stocks from three major global indexes, which are investment funds made up of a number of stocks run by investment management firm Morgan Stanley, with the authors looking for exposure the companies have to state-sponsored labour transfers or internment and surveillance programs in the Xinjiang region. [Here’s what was found and why the author hopes the report will empower individual investors](. - Go deeper: Analysts say six of 12 companies listed on Morgan Stanley’s China index have been involved in constructing internment camps and six have been involved in labour transfers. The report alleges seven of 13 companies on the emerging markets index have used labour drawn from China’s state-sponsored labour transfer programs with six involved in camp construction. - More: According to the report, Canada Pension Plan is exposed to seven companies accused of using forced labour and six complicit in building repressive infrastructure — a claim rejected by public affairs at the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. WHAT ELSE [MP’s are calling out Justin Trudeau for saying he wasn’t briefed]( on allegations of Chinese interference in the 2019 federal election. [What will happen to the Iranian players who refused to sing their anthem]( during the World Cup? [Here’s who’d be getting the biggest wage hike]( under CUPE’s tentative new deal with the province. Canadian former athletes are calling on MPs to [launch a nationwide inquiry into sexual abuse in sports](. More than 2,400 elderly patients have already been moved from hospitals to nursing homes. [Here’s why critics say the move is discriminatory](. The government plans to change the way rehabilitation services are provided to ill and injured vets. [Here’s why case managers are worried some will fall through the cracks](. Struggling to make mortgage payments? [Here’s how to avoid the slippery slope that leads to losing your home](. Cassandra, 26, earns $60,000 a year and has $10,000 in debt. [Where can she cut back to save for her future?]( An Ontario man has been found guilty of manslaughter for [providing a 17-year-old girl with the fentanyl that caused her overdose death](. The man suspected of opening fire at a gay nightclub in Colorado Springs is being [held on murder and hate crime charges](. Hundreds of workers at a Loblaw distribution centre in Calgary have been [served layoff notices amid ongoing contract talks](. New Statistics Canada data shows the [highest rate of gang-related homicides in 16 years](. POV Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld [Canada is now No. 1 in the world in terms of MAiD. We should think twice before expanding it.]( CLOSE-UP Parker Seibold/AP Photo COLORADO SPRINGS: Hundreds of people, many holding candles and wiping away tears, [gathered Monday night in a Colorado Springs park to honour those killed and wounded when a gunman opened fire at Club Q]( a gay nightclub in the city. Pictured is a candle with a note to Derrick Rump, one of the five victims of the shooting. Thanks for reading. You can reach me and the First Up team at [firstup@thestar.ca](mailto:firstup@thestar.ca?source=newsletter&utm_source=ts_nl&utm_medium=emailutm_email=6C53B63A8E3FAD70AD4EF13004527437&utm_campaign=frst_154974). Kevin Jiang will see you back here tomorrow. If you're not enjoying these emails, please tell us how we can make them better by emailing newsletterfeedback@thestar.ca. Or, if you'd prefer, you can unsubscribe from this newsletter by clicking the first link below. 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