Views From the Ground

Why are the American president’s approval ratings so low? Casey Dominguez on what’s known and unknown about the dynamics shaping opinions of Joe Biden. X Factors Why are the American president’s approval ratings so low? Casey Dominguez on what’s known and unknown about the dynamics shaping opinions of Joe Biden. Jon Tyson The former U.S. president Donald Trump has now been indicted in the state of Georgia on 11 counts of racketeering, conspiracy, and other crimes related to attempts to overturn the results of the state’s 2020 presidential vote. The new felony charges have raised the total number against him—across four indictments in federal and state courts—to a remarkable 89. And yet in a potential 2024 electoral rematch between Trump and the current U.S. president, Joe Biden, several recent polls show the two in a virtual tie. After beginning the year with roughly half of Americans disapproving of his performance, Biden’s unfavorable rating hit 56 percent in early June, in an average of national polls, and has remained steadily in the mid-50s since. His current approval rating, 41 percent, is the second-lowest of any sitting president in the last 75 years at this point in his first term—ahead only of Jimmy Carter before Ronald Reagan emphatically defeated him in 1980. In the meantime, news about some of the tougher issues facing the United States has been increasingly positive: Violent crime, illegal immigration, and inflation have all been in decline for months, with the unemployment rate at the lowest it’s been since the 1970s. Along the way, the U.S. economy grew by 2.4 percent in the second quarter of the year—defying many economists’ forecasts of a recession and humbling [China’s mere 0.8 percent](. So why would Biden be so unpopular right now? Casey Dominguez is the chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of San Diego and researches the historical approval ratings of U.S. presidents. Part of the picture, Dominguez says, is that political polarization has made it increasingly difficult for a U.S. president to win or sustain the approval of voters belonging to the opposing party. Part of it is in a marked loss of enthusiasm for the president among Democrats, not least younger Democrats, and independents—voters with no party affiliation—while Republicans have represented a bloc of near-unanimous disapproval since he took office. Historically, Dominguez says, American voters have looked at the economy as a proxy for a president’s performance, and Biden’s weak approval numbers broadly bear that pattern out. At the same time, a lot of Americans don’t follow political or economic news closely, so their perceptions of the economy tend to be formed through negative coverage from even months back. And so, the uncertain prospects for the U.S. economy early next year could mean even more uncertainty than usual for the U.S. election late next year … if, that is—and it may now be yet another big if—economic issues aren’t overwhelmed by Trump’s legal jeopardy or anything else. Michael Bluhm: What’s going on with these historically low approval ratings for a first-term U.S. president? Casey Dominguez: Well, any U.S. president’s approval ratings tend to be high—if not at their highest—when he first comes into office. At that point, he hasn’t yet made any decisions that anger anyone. So it’s not unusual in the least for presidential approval ratings to start dropping after Inauguration Day, as Biden’s have. As to how far down they settle from there, that’s historically depended on a few key factors. One is people’s perceptions of the economy. That tends to be the most important. But there are also their perceptions of the president’s performance on other issues. And of course, there’s always the partisan affiliation of whoever’s answering a pollster’s question—Democrats approve more of Democratic presidents; Republicans approve more of Republicans—and that correlation has grown a lot stronger in recent years. Which means that Biden—like Trump before him, and like the next U.S. president, whoever he or she should be—has a constricted center of open-minded voters to persuade compared to what U.S. presidents in the past had. In the course of Biden’s term, meanwhile, there’ve been big economic challenges. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates for more than a year, which is part of what led many economists to predict a recession. Inflation is still high by historical standards. And public perceptions of Biden’s responsibility for those economic realities have had a major impact on his approval ratings. Bluhm: And yet there’ve recently been a lot of positive signs in the U.S. economy. The country hasn’t, in fact, seen a recession: U.S. GDP has grown in 2023; inflation has been declining for months; and the unemployment rate is near a record low, at 3.5 percent. Measures of consumer confidence are rising, too. With all that in view, why would Americans be holding such pervasively negative views about Biden’s handling of the economy? Advertisement Dominguez: There’s a lot we don’t know about that. But historically, people simply don’t—perhaps can’t—pay close attention to changes in politics and the economy in real time. There tends to be a lag between when these changes start to happen and when people perceive them happening. Trump’s presidency was an exception, in a way, because it was central to his governing strategy to dominate news cycles. But Biden’s is much more historically normal in this sense. For 75 years, there’s been research showing that the economy is the number-one thing affecting American opinion on presidential performance—but also, that there’s a lag time between significant changes in economic indicators and significant changes in people’s economic assessments. If you ask the average U.S. voter, How do you think the president is doing on the economy? his or her answer will now most likely be based not on the economy as such, but on the news and media narratives the voter’s been consuming over the prior six months or so. There may be something different going on among younger Americans, though. They seem to be more deeply anxious about their economic prospects—their ability to get jobs, own homes, and build families and careers—on account of their perception that the economy isn’t as strong as it was when their parents were bringing them up. Markus Spiske More from Casey Dominguez at The Signal: “Fundamentally, … Republicans have never expected Biden to do a good job or have thought he was doing one. And in a highly partisan era like the one we’re living in, we don’t really have reason to think they would. With Democrats, polling numbers show support for Biden decreasing since he took office yet recovering somewhat recently. He started out among them at 98 percent, declining to the low 80s during most of this year, but Gallup has him at 86 percent for July. Now, Democrats have never been extremely enthusiastic about Joe Biden. He represents the middle of the party—so moderates tend to think he’s too progressive, while progressives tend to think he’s too conservative. And a certain ratio of Democrats has always had questions about his age.” “Biden’s approval numbers among independents aren’t great. They’re 38 percent for July, according to Gallup—and only 31 percent of independents approved of his performance in April and May. Which is a real concern for the president and his reelection campaign, because many independents are swing voters, likely to affect results in states that will be up for grabs in the 2024 election. Independents’ assessments of the president are also especially likely to take shape in reaction to coverage of the economy in the media; and in the news media, there’s been a lot of talk about inflation and recession. Now the news is starting to shift more positively on those issues, as you say, so the idea that the U.S. is economically weak under Biden might not be so much part of news narratives by next year. But given what we know about how heavily American voters weigh apparent economic performance in their views of presidential performance—and the lag time between changes to the economy and when people tend to perceive those changes—I suspect that, at the moment, negative news about the economy has mostly been driving negative perceptions about Biden among independents.” “The Harvard Institute of Politics regularly surveys young people and recently released their latest survey results. These days, younger Americans tend to be very progressive. Their approval of Joe Biden is quite low now—down to 36 percent, from 41 last year. There are a lot of potential reasons for that. Part of it is inflation and the economy. Part of it could be a disconnect with Biden because of the age gap. Part of it could be promises his administration made about student-loan forgiveness, which the Supreme Court struck down. Part of it could be progressive complaints about things like allowing new oil drilling. … Young people in America don’t pay much attention to public affairs until the election. If you quiz them, most probably won’t know about the infrastructure bill or what the Inflation Reduction Act was, or how it affects the climate. If they follow progressive groups on social media, they might be hearing less about these issues and more about things that progressive groups are pressing the administration on, such as oil pipelines. Young people say in polls that they’re concerned about the climate, but that doesn’t mean that they’re following day-to-day actions in Washington or updating their perceptions of the president through that lens. Biden’s reelection campaign will try to help them make those connections—we’ll see how successfully.” [Continue reading ...]( [The Signal]( explores urgent questions in current events around the world—to support it and for full access: [Subscribe now]( The Signal | 1717 N St. NW, Washington, DC 20011 [Unsubscribe {EMAIL}]( [Constant Contact Data Notice]( Sent by newsletters@thesgnl.email