Whatâs happening with election denial and political violence in the world? Lucan Way on the threat and limits of a new tendency in Western democracy. Import-Export Whatâs happening with election denial and political violence in the world? Lucan Way on the threat and limits of a new tendency in Western democracy. Ev Not long ago, it would have been difficult for anyone in the United States to imagine a sitting president responding to an election loss by claiming his rightful victory had somehow been stolenâlet alone that it would inspire a partisan attack on the U.S. Congress. Now, with recent events in Brazil, there appears a danger that election denial and political violence could be spreading globally. After the Brazilian general election in October, the countryâs then-president, Jair Bolsonaro, announced that his defeat was the result of widespread electoral fraud. And on January 8âtwo years and two days after the U.S. Capitol riotâa mob of his supporters attacked and vandalized federal government buildings in BrasÃlia, hoping to prompt military leaders to carry out a coup d'état and reinstall Bolsonaro. It all seemed very familiar. Has Donald Trump changed the playbook for the worldâs anti-democratic populists? Lucan Way is a professor of political science at the University of Toronto and the author of three books on authoritarianism. As Way sees it, while Trump has altered the political life of his country, and is still influencing political life beyond it, his most infamous populist technique can only go so far. While election denial has now been the pretext for political riots in two Western capitals, the only sustained benefit to its instigators has been to keep hardcore supporters engagedâat the cost of alienating others, activating opponents, and even, more in Brazil, losing political allies. Now that itâs in âthe Western anti-democratic repertoire,â Way says, authoritarian populists will continue to try out election denial where they canâbut theyâll be up against considerable democratic resilience. Eve Valentine: What precedents would there be, other than the last U.S. election, for the leader of a country to deny the legitimacy of a democratic vote to try to hold power? Lucan Way: In polarized âemerging democraciesâânotably in sub-Saharan Africa but elsewhereâitâs been quite common for parties either to claim an election was stolen after the fact or to boycott one in advance, on the grounds that it was already rigged. Sometimes, in fairness, these claims have been true; oftentimes, they havenât. But if weâre looking at the wave of right-wing populism thatâs been moving through Western âadvanced democraciesâ in recent years, there, Donald Trump has been a real innovatorâspecifically in the way heâs not just disputed the outcome of an election but tried to delegitimize a long-standing, high-functioning electoral system altogether. Now, all innovators have their influences, and in this case, the most important would be Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary since 2010âwell before Trumpâs political ascentâwho mobilized his supporters around the idea that a powerful âdeep stateâ had emerged as the big enemy of the Hungarian people, variously thwarting their democratic will. Valentine: How did this idea make its way to the U.S.? Advertisement Way: It actually originated in Egypt and Turkeyâto describe the militaryâs effective control in those countries regardless of the outcome of elections. Orbán appropriated the idea to undermine the legitimacy of the Hungarian stateâs independent bureaucracy and courts. That got the attention of Steve Bannon, one of Trumpâs key early alliesâand influenced Trump from there. You can see the idea of the deep state as part of the backdrop for his innovation with election denial. After all, who could thwart a Republican electoral victory with Trump himself in power? Not the Democratic Party as such but a deep state supposedly allied with it, controlling the mechanisms of elections. Before Trump took over the Republican Party, it had indulged over time in some questionable behavior around electionsâparticularly with regulations that would manipulate them indirectly by decreasing voter turnout among groups likely to support Democratic candidates. And the rationale for these efforts was often that theyâd address alleged problems with voter fraud. But in seeking directly to upend the American electoral system as a whole, fusing the idea of voter fraud with the premise of the deep state, what Trump did was newâin the U.S. and the democratic world. Anna Marinicheva More from Lucan Way at The Signal: âItâs true that Trumpâs election-denial innovation didnât prevent the democratic transfer of power in the United States. Itâs also true, and at least as important, that Bolsonaroâs attempt to replicate the innovation in Brazil was even less successful, because for a variety of reasons, many of his supporters, along with many of his elite allies, didnât support the ruseâand now Bolsonaro has exiled himself to Miami. So in this sense, Brazilian democracy has been even more resilient than American democracy. Still, this innovation is now in the Western anti-democratic repertoire.â âI canât imagine it not spreadingâamong populists who lose elections and arenât committed to the stability of their countriesâ democratic institutions. And theyâre not disappearing. So I think it could become quite common. At the same time, I think itâs also likely to become less and less effective. ⦠The vast majority of U.S. Republicans who now validate and amplify Trumpâs claims about the 2020 election, for example, donât really expect to see any elections overturned. They just want to activate their supporters. The question is to what extent they can keep doing this and for how longâand the results of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections shouldnât encourage them.â âIâm optimistic about the survival of democratic elections. Of course, elections arenât the whole of democracyâand Iâm less fully optimistic about the survival of the kinds of liberal institutions, like minority rights, that help define the whole of democracy; I think these will potentially remain under threat in all kinds of ways. But there are vital forces that are limiting the erosion of democracy in the worldâand that could even help strengthen it in the coming years.â [Continue reading ...]( [The Signal]( explores urgent questions in current events around the worldâto support it and for full access: [Subscribe now]( The Signal | 1717 N St. NW, Washington, DC 20011 [Unsubscribe {EMAIL}](
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