[The Signal] Putinâs Dreams What did he hope to get out of the war? Anatol Lieven on nationalist ambitions, historical narratives, and Moscowâs fraught relationship with the West. [Envato]( Envato (Originally published 2022 | 05.03) Three days before invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin justified the impending attack as necessary for Russian security, saying that Moscow had spent 30 years patiently negotiating with NATO while being lied to and blackmailed by the West. The Kremlin, he said, wouldnât repeat the errors of those who failed to take Hitler seriously before World War II. Last summer, however, in a long essay titled âOn the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,â Putin offered a different view of Ukraineâs relationship with Russia. Drawing on historical details from past centuries, he argued that Ukraine was an artificial modern concoction on historically Russian lands. Years earlier, he offered still another view, speaking of Russia as an âenergy superpowerâ on account of massive oil and gas reserves, whose value depends on pipelines that run through Ukraine. How do these ideas fit together? Anatol Lieven is the senior research fellow on Russia and Europe at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry. According to Lieven, Putinâs chauvinistic views about his country are historically inaccurate and illogical but essential to supporting his certainty that Moscow is, and must always be, a global power. Putin has long spoken of Russia as an alternative Western civilization, different from Western Europe or the United States but equal in importance. Yet, Lieven says, the Kremlin has never been economically or politically strong enough to fulfill these ambitions. As Lieven sees it, Moscowâs military failures in Ukraine, and the Ukrainiansâ determined resistance, also represent a defeat for Putinâs vision of Russia and Ukraine. The question now is how that vision will wind up influencing the way he seeks to end the war. âââ Michael Bluhm: What did Putin see in Ukraine? Anatol Lieven: He would agree with the late U.S. national-security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, who wrote that Russia ceases to be a great power without it. As long as Russia keeps Ukraine as a satellite or a subordinate, Russia is a vital power on the world stage. Without Ukraine, Russian power is vastly reduced. Then thereâs the fear, which you can call paranoid, that America is going to establish Ukraine as a military base, expel Russia from its naval base at Sevastopol and its remaining positions in the Caucasus, and blockade the Russian enclave in Moldova. Thereâs also an intense nationalistic feeling that you could hear continually intensifying in Putinâs statements: Ukrainians are a brotherly people who belong with Russiaâthough younger brothers, of course. Thereâs a depth of emotionality in the attitude to Ukraine that doesnât apply to Georgia, Moldova, or the Baltic states. Itâs this idea that Ukrainians are family, and Ukrainian behavior before the war was a betrayal within the family. Historically, large parts of Ukraine were conquered by Russia from the Turks, not by Ukraine. The feeling is, These areas naturally belong in Russiaâand if Ukraine was going to turn against Russia, Russia was damn well going to take these areas back. Bluhm: You mention the shared history between Russia and Ukraine going back more than 1,000 years. Putin discussed this history in detail, in a long essay about the two countries that he published last summer. Where does Ukraine fit in Putinâs thinking about the history of Russia? [Advertisement]( Advertisement Lieven: It goes back to the fact that the origin of the Russian state was in Ukraine and then moved north after the Mongol invasion in the 13th century. Ukraine is regarded by many Russians as inherently part of Russia.
Moscow invading Ukraine was never a prelude to invading the Baltic states, let alone Poland or Romania. Russia doesnât regard these places in the same light; theyâre completely different. Thereâs this deep belief that Russia and Ukraine are oneâbut dominated by Russia. Itâs been a close relationship. Ukrainians who showed themselves loyalâfirst to the Russian Empire and then to the Soviet Unionâadvanced to the very highest positions. Ethnic Ukrainiansânot just Russians born in Ukraineâalso played a tremendous part in Russian culture. The first great Russian novelist, Gogol, was an ethnic Ukrainian. Former Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Dmitry Cossack, who has often been tipped as a potential successor to Putin, is an ethnic Ukrainian, born in Ukraine. This feeling that we are closely bound together encourages the belief that if the Ukrainians are now against us, it canât be because ordinary Ukrainians are really against us; it must be on account of the wicked plots of the Americans and a small minority of Ukrainian fascists. Out of that came the fatuous belief that Ukrainians would welcome the Russian invasion and greet the Russian army with flowers. To explain this crazy misapprehension, you have to understand these deep elements of emotional bias in Putinâs view and wider Russian attitudes to Ukraine. [Mehrnaz Taghavishavazi]( Mehrnaz Taghavishavazi More from Anatol Lieven at The Signal: "The dilemma for Russia is that itâs partly European and Western, but itâs largely not. Itâs never been accepted by Europe as part of Europe, because itâs much poorer and has a different culture. Thatâs deeply offensive to Russian pride: Weâre the heirs of Byzantium. Weâre the biggest state and the largest population in Europe, and yet weâre treated with contempt by Europeans. This has created a desire among Russians to see their country as a separate civilizationânot an inferior part of Western civilization, but separate and equal. But Russia has never been strong enough to maintain this idea of itself as a separate and equal civilization.â "Putinâs preferred phrase about Russian identity for a long time was the idea of Russia as the Third West. There are already two Wests, Europe and America, which are closely related culturally but significantly different. There are big differences between America and Europe on issues such as religion, guns, and attitudes toward the individual, yet theyâre both considered the West. Putin asks, Why shouldnât Russia be a third West, with highly distinctive aspects, but also closely related to the others? The last time I saw Putin was at a conference in Russia in October. He didnât talk much about Ukraine but did talk an awful lot about attacking woke-ism and LGBTQ ideology. I thought he was looking for the Republican nomination for U.S. president in 2024. That rhetoric about carving out Russia as distinct from the dominant Western culture and ideologyâbut itâs not fundamentally different from the rhetoric of hardline conservatives in Europe and, even more so, America.â "Now, heâs trying to fulfill his vision of turning Ukraine into a brotherly partyâby force. From that point of view, Ukraine has already won. Putinâs attempts to capture Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government were completely defeated and have been publicly abandoned by the Russian government. All their troops have withdrawn from northern Ukraine. Theyâve basically gone back to an expanded version of what they did in 2014: take the whole of the Donbas and then either negotiate a ceasefire and peace settlement or hold the land bridge between Donbas and Crimea. Military defeat has shown Putin that the wider agenda is simply impossible. His original dream has been shattered by reality, and heâs gone to a much lesser alternative.â [The Signal]( explores urgent questions in current events around the worldâto support it and for full access: This email address is unmonitored; please send questions or comments [here](mailto:mail@thesgnl.com) To advertise with The Signal: advertise@thesgnl.com Add us to your [address book](mailto:newsletter@thesgnl.com) Unsubscribe here © 2022 The Signal The Signal | 1717 N St. NW, Washington, DC 20011 [Unsubscribe {EMAIL}](
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