The Criminal Element

How is rising violent crime affecting U.S. politics? Lisa L. Miller on threats to public safety and their consequences for elections. Fear Factor How is rising violent crime affecting U.S. politics? Lisa L. Miller on threats to public safety and their consequences for elections. “The answer is not to defund the police,” U.S. President Joe Biden said earlier this month in New York City, as he pushed for more funding and training for law enforcement, along with initiatives to reduce gun violence in America. Violent crime increased in the U.S. during the pandemic, at least a dozen major American cities had record homicide rates last year, and high-profile shootings have been attracting media attention across the country in recent weeks. Now the president and other leaders in the Democratic Party, which currently controls the federal government, are previewing how they’ll position themselves on crime and public safety in this year’s midterm-election campaign. Many Black Democratic mayors are looking to increase police budgets and talking tougher on crime. Republicans, who are favored to retake at least one house of the U.S. Congress this November, are already emphasizing these issues, blaming Democratic governance for the danger and lawlessness. How is the issue of crime and violence changing the political landscape? Lisa L. Miller is a professor of political science at Rutgers University and studies the politics of the issue. To Miller, crime is a bigger political issue in the U.S. than it was a year ago, but its influence on the coming elections is hard to anticipate, particularly since contemporary threats to public safety are still nowhere near what they were like during America’s high-crime years between the 1970s and the 1990s. As Miller sees it, the issue of crime presents a greater political risk for Democrats than Republicans, as Democrats are trying to address it while simultaneously pushing to reform the criminal-justice system and address endemic problems with racism in policing. At the same time, Miller warns, Republicans could be in danger of overemphasizing this issue and neglecting more pressing voter concerns, especially if violent crime in the United States doesn’t get meaningfully worse than it is now. ——— Graham Vyse: How is crime shaping American politics at the moment? Lisa L. Miller: Violent crime is a serious political issue when it’s on the rise. When it goes up dramatically, people pay attention and care about it. This is an interesting moment, though, because unlike the big crime wave we had between the late 1960s and the middle of the 1990s, we’re seeing a rise in crime that seems a little more regional—confined somewhat to homicides, as property crimes are down. It’s hard to know what will happen over the next couple of months, but people are certainly concerned, with reason. It’s become a more salient issue than it was a year or so ago. Vyse: The headline of a recent NBC News article was “[How Democrats Went From Defund to Refund the Police]( How is the Democratic Party’s approach to the issue of crime changing? Miller: I’m not sure the Democratic Party ever embraced “defund the police.” That idea has been an active part of an ongoing social movement trying to reconfigure the criminal-justice system. Democratic officials have been consistent that police are an important part of public safety. The question has always been what police should do. To the extent that some Democrats have embraced real reform, that reform becomes harder with violence rising. It’s harder to think about institutional change in the context of a crisis. Some cities are already facing a crisis. What’s interesting is the effort by Democrats to recognize the serious risk to the police and citizens posed by violent crime—and gun violence in particular—while not wanting to recreate the mistakes of the past with a lot of militaristic, aggressive, undifferentiated policing. The funny thing is, if you really listen to what the “defund the police” people are saying, they’ll often say they’re not talking about people in high-crime neighborhoods suddenly having no police to call. Now, you might say “defund the police” is a bad slogan, but there’s a recognition among many activists that there needs to be a role for law enforcement. They just believe the role needs to be much narrower. But this kind of nuance is hard to convey in a national campaign. [Advertisement]( Advertisement More from Lisa L. Miller at The Signal: “Historically, Republicans really beat up on Democrats on the issue of crime. In the Clinton era, Democrats tried to out-punitive Republicans, which diffused the issue in a partisan sense, but these more left-leaning social movements working toward reform in the U.S. put Democrats in a different position now. To the extent that Republicans don’t have people in their coalition agitating for significant police reform, it’s a lot easier for them to revert to a purely punitive strategy. They might face pushback on some issues in parts of the country where Republicans have embraced reforms, but those reforms have mostly been for non-violent offenses.” “I don’t know that there are a lot of single-issue crime voters in America. You hear about single-issue voters motivated by guns or abortion. When violence is rising, everybody cares about it. It’s certainly true that in America, we live in a country with a long history and legacy of racism, and there’s always the risk that some in the electorate—especially among whites—will associate criminal activity with racial minorities and then vote for punitive candidates who play to that. But so much hinges on the reality of violence itself. U.S. voters generally won’t have the issue on their radars if it’s not a serious problem for them.” “The current rate of homicides and serious violence remains relatively low—compared to the 1970s or the 1990s, for example. Having said that, violence is significantly higher in the U.S. than in other democracies, and America remains a riskier place to live. Even small increases in violence will add to people’s feelings of risk.” ——— This Week [Watching the Throne]( How is emerging evidence of Donald Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 U.S. presidential election affecting the politics of the American right? Amanda Carpenter on the challenge to democracy still roiling the Republican Party. [Just a Job]( Is something fundamentally changing in how Americans think about work? Jonathan Malesic on the causes and consequences of the Great Resignation. ——— ——— [The Signal]( is a digital publication exploring key questions in democratic life and the human world, sustained entirely by readers like you. To support The Signal and for full access: This email address is unmonitored; please send questions or comments [here](mailto:mail@thesgnl.com) To advertise with The Signal: advertise@thesgnl.com Add us to your [address book](mailto:newsletters@thesgnl.email) © 2022 The Signal The Signal | 717 N St. NW, Ste. One, Washington, DC 20011 [Unsubscribe {EMAIL}]( [Constant Contact Data Notice]( Sent by newsletters@thesgnl.email