The Political Variants

What’s at stake in the changing politics of Covid around the world? Scott L. Greer on the pandemic’s latest mutation and last stages. A Season of Waiting What’s at stake in the changing politics of Covid around the world? Scott L. Greer on the pandemic’s latest mutation and last stages. The first U.S. case of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 was announced on Wednesday. With South Africa having first reported the new iteration of the coronavirus last week, it’s now spreading globally, creating more uncertainty about the future of the whole pandemic. Yet the advent of Omicron also comes at a moment of “Covid fatigue.” As the White House Press Secretary, Jen Psaki, recently [acknowledged]( “We see that, in poll after poll, … people are sick and tired of Covid and the impacts on the economy.” They’re also growing weary of restrictive government policies aimed at keeping them safe from the virus and limiting its spread. Over the past couple of weeks, massive protests [broke out in Europe]( after several countries imposed new restrictions—and in some cases, the demonstrations turned violent. Where is this all going? Scott L. Greer is a professor of health management and policy, global public health, and political science at the University of Michigan—and one of the editors of [Coronavirus Politics: The Comparative Politics and Policy of Covid-19](. Greer says the world leaders now imposing new Covid restrictions, or reviving old ones, are betting on support from citizens, even if the restrictions increasingly enrage a vocal minority of them. He doubts we’ll see a return to prolonged lockdowns or other measures that harm economies—especially since vaccines are dramatically enhancing governments’ ability to manage the virus—though countries with serious vaccination problems might impose limited policies such as 10-day forced holidays. In Greer’s view, the “wave of the future” for many governments will be to follow the leads of France and Austria, placing more restrictions on unvaccinated people. Covid may not be behind us, but Greer sees the extraordinary political climate of the early pandemic giving way to politics as usual—at least one way some normalcy might be returning to life around the world. ——— Graham Vyse: How do you see the political challenges shifting globally as Omicron spreads? Scott L. Greer: If you look at disasters of any kind—from wildfires to epidemics—there’s a very strong pattern: At the beginning, there’s a surge of adrenaline. It’s time to be a hero. People come together. There’s clapping for healthcare workers and resourcefulness and creativity and community. Then that dissipates, and by the time it’s been a year people tend to be unusually bitter. There’s a lot more divisiveness, scapegoating, and people saying they’re willing to accept risk just to get back to something like normal life. Applying that theory, you would have said March 2021 would have been the pits, but then it felt—at least across the rich countries—like we were coming out of the pandemic. It’s why the Delta variant hit so hard. Now there’s Omicron, and we’re stuck with populations in a lot of countries that aren’t vaccinated enough to mean we don’t have to worry. There’s a sense that there’s not going to be the day when we can blow a whistle, have a party, and go back to normal life—but what you’re seeing is, in many ways, the reversion to normal politics. We’re stuck in the worst, most tired and grumpy phase of this, and it’s not totally clear how we get out of it in most countries. More from Scott L. Greer at The Signal: “When you ask people about support for restrictions, it’s high practically everywhere—two-thirds or three-quarters high. There’s a lot of professed public support for them in Western Europe. Now, that’s a rotten storyline for the press. It’s far more interesting to interview people with exotic theories about microchips in the vaccines. Political-opposition movements might be jumping in front of these demonstrators and trying to lead them. It’s far more photogenic for these movements to be fighting with police in the streets of the Hague. But public support for governments doing something is consistently pretty strong.” “If getting an unlikely breakthrough case of Covid just means, for a large portion of the population, something like a nasty head cold, then it would be epidemiologically and economically questionable—and politically suicidal—to close everyone up in their homes like it was 2020. You have to get kids back to school at some point. Lockdowns also require really expensive social policies, so you’re going to have finance ministers saying, This won’t work unless we shell out a ton of money. Why would we do that, given that the virus can pass through the population without crashing the healthcare system?” “For all governments have been thinking about credit and blame, the stability of electoral results is remarkable. In country after country, you can open up a newspaper and read a columnist wondering, How is it that, after so much death and economic damage, we seem to be seeing the same election outcomes we would’ve had at the end of 2019? Partly it’s that there’s an enormous constituency of people who want to forget about Covid and its consequences. There are political parties that think they’ll be blamed for it, and they want to forget. There are political parties that simply aren’t known for being good at health policy, and they want to forget. And of course, there are voters who are quite receptive to anyone saying we can forget about this, because the last couple of years wasn’t much fun for a lot of the population. There’s amazingly limited accountability so far in the democracies.” ——— ——— [The Signal]( is a new digital publication exploring urgent questions in democratic life and the human world—sustained entirely by readers like you. To support The Signal and for full access: © 2021 The Signal The Signal | 717 N St. NW, Ste. One, Washington, DC 20011 [Unsubscribe {EMAIL}]( [Constant Contact Data Notice]( Sent by newsletters@thesgnl.email