What is Iran up to in the Middle East? Vali Nasr on the Islamic Republicâs strategy to come away as the Gaza warâs biggest winners. Recently at The Signal: Omair Ahmad on [how Hindu nationalism is transforming India](. Today: What is Iran up to in the Middle East? Vali Nasr on the Islamic Republicâs strategy to come away as the Gaza warâs biggest winners. Also: Ivan Krastev on how the war in Ukraine is changing life in Europe. The Soleimani Gambit Charlie Solorzano On February 19, the Houthi militia in Yemen fired a barrage of missiles at cargo vessels and U.S. warships in the Red Sea, forcing the crew of a British-owned freighter to abandon ship. The same day, nearby American forces shot down a dozen drones, along with a cruise missile, and hit a rocket launcherâall belonging to the Houthis. Meanwhile, the Houthis have been rising in prominence within a network of Middle Eastern militant groups that calls itself the Axis of Resistanceâin reference to their opposition against the United States, Israel, and their regional allies, soon to be joined in the Red Sea by a European Union flotilla. The Axis includes the Houthis in Yemen, several militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and, not least, Hamas. What do these groups have in common? Theyâre all armed and funded by Iran. And yet Iranâs connections to the Hamas attacks on October 7 that triggered the war in Gaza remain murky. Itâs unclear how much Iranâs leadership knew about them ahead of time. After Iranian proxy fighters in Iraq launched a drone strike in Jordan on January 28, killing three U.S. soldiers, Tehran sent senior officials to order the proxies to stop. And while Iran keeps supplying its confederates in the region with missiles, drones, and intelligence tools to escalate the conflict in Gaza, it also continues calling for a ceasefire. How do all these seemingly contradictory moves make sense? Vali Nasr is a professor of Middle East studies and international affairs at the Johns Hopkins Universityâs School of Advanced International Studies, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Councilâs South Asia Center, and the author of seven books on the Middle East and Islam. As Nasr sees it, Iran is anxious for a ceasefire to stop Israel from damaging Hamas any furtherâand Iranâs proxy attacks on Israel and its allies are intended as pressure to achieve that end. But overall, the Islamic Republic is emboldened, seeing itself as gaining power and status from the circumstances of the war. Not only has the conflict shown Israel to be less secure than it long seemed, but global public opinion has considerably turned against Israel and the U.S., while relations between their leaders have cooled. Across the region and around the world, Nasr says, the war has returned the Palestinian issue to the public agenda, in ways that will demand significant Western attention and investment for years. Which the Iranian regime believes will mean less capacity to confront itâand more of a need to work with itâif the U.S. and its allies hope to calm the Middle East. Michael Bluhm: How have Iran and its proxies responded to the war in Gaza? Advertisement Vali Nasr: It might have surprised Tehran that the Hamas incursion ended up being so consequential, both operationally and psychologically. Hamas had been considered the weakest link in the Axis of Resistance. Israel didnât even see Hamas as its primary threat. The Iranians and their allies in the Axis immediately thought theyâd made a massive strategic gain. October 7 destroyed Israelâs aura of invincibility in the region; it diminished Israel and enhanced the Axis of Resistance overnight. With this one attack, Hamas completely changed the conversation in the Middle East. The U.S. had been working to create a regional order based on normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, building a stable, pro-American corridor from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean. That priority was suddenly replaced by one that had been mostly forgotten: the situation of the Palestinians. Iranâs and its alliesâ most urgent desire at the moment is to consolidate this strategic gain. They donât want Hamas to fold quickly or for Israel to succeed quickly in Gaza. They want to see the new dynamic created by October 7 to become the new reality of the Middle East. And the way the war has unfolded is accomplishing that. Bluhm: How so? Nasr: Hamas reset the strategic landscape in the Middle Eastâin a way that shows the Axis of Resistanceâs ability to upend the region altogether. It wonât be possible to reverse this new dynamic anytime soon: The Axis is empowered, the Palestinian issue is back on the table, and Israel has been strategically weakened. Khamenei.ir More from Vali Nasr at The Signal: âThe Axis believes its tactics are working. They believe theyâre the reason why President Biden is pushing Netanyahu toward a ceasefire. They think Bidenâs previously full support for Israel has eroded on account of two things: one, images from Gaza, which are affecting American and global public opinionâand which are potentially affecting his re-election; and two, his desire to avoid a wider regional war. Theyâve also been working to help the Palestinians through social media. Theyâre very prolific there, where videos on TikTok and Instagram have been especially important tools for them.â âIranâs relationship with Axis groups is like the United Statesâ relationship with allied forces around the world: Tehran gives these groups technology and training; both sides share certain strategic objectives; and they can rely on one another. But it canât just pick up the phone and order them around. Iran and other Axis members also share a strategic vision. They might disagree about tacticsâas they might about, say, what to do on Lebanonâs border with Israel right now. But they share a view of the U.S. and Israel as a common enemy, and they share an interest in undermining U.S. influence in the region and the wider world.â âThe Iranians donât want a war against the United States or one that consumes the wider region. But they also know the U.S. doesnât want these things, either. So who wants them less? Iranâs calculation is the Americans want it less than they do. Thereâs a method to Iranâs escalation. Theyâre calibrating it to avoid a larger war, while trying to force the United States to accept that if it doesnât want that larger war, it has to end this one in Gaza. And Iran believes the method is working. They see it as creating a breach between the U.S. and Israelâand forcing a change in the oneâs position toward the other.â [Members can read the full interview here]( Enjoy The Signal? Send this newsletter along to a friend whoâs as curious about the world as you are. Someone send it to you? Sign up [here](. FROM THE FILES History Begins Again February 24 will mark the second anniversary of Russiaâs invasion of Ukraine. Last May, [Ivan Krastev]( looked at [how the war is changing Europe](âseeing the conflict as fundamentally transforming its politics, its security considerations, and even its conception of itself. And yet, Krastev says, these changes are driving Europeans in conflicting directions: With some favoring greater integration of their content, others are turning to the idea of strengthening their individual nation-states insteadâa tension that will shape European life in the coming years. To access our full articles, full archive, and to support The Signal as we build a new approach to current affairs, become a member. [Join The Signal]( Coming soon: Alice Han on how the Chinese carmaker BYD has surpassed Tesla in global sales of electric vehicles ⦠This email address is unmonitored; please send questions or comments [here](mailto:mail@thesgnl.com). To advertise with The Signal: advertise@thesgnl.com. Add us to your [address book](mailto:newsletter@thesgnl.com). Unsubscribe [here](. © 2023 The Signal [unsubscribe](