Children of Men

Why are birth rates around the world dropping? Jennifer Sciubba on a transformative global shift in culture and values. Brought to you by [Babbel]( Recently from The Signal: Moisés Naím on[how long Venezuela’s autocratic president can get away with stealing an election](. … Today: Why are birth rates around the world dropping? Jennifer Sciubba on a transformative global shift in culture and values. (From Apr. 30.) … Also: Michael Bluhm on the resignation of Japan’s prime minster and the spreading consequences of rising inflation. Subscribe to The Signal? Share with a friend. … Sent to you? Sign up [here](. Quantity of Life Etienne Boulanger Confounding scientific projections, the world’s birth rate is falling—enough that in the coming decades, the populations of nearly all Western countries could start falling with it. Today, the global average birth rate is around 2.2 children per woman. It’s a number demographers call the replacement rate—the number that would keep the population flat. In most parts of the world, however, the birth rate is now lower than the replacement rate, with the global average bolstered by comparatively large families in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Now, birth rates are below the replacement rate in North America, Europe, Russia, and China—and populations are already dropping in 30 countries, including even India and elsewhere in the developing world. Europe’s average birth rate is now about 1.5 children per woman; in South Korea, it’s 0.7. For the first time in human history, people across geographies and cultures have started wanting smaller families. Meanwhile, governments all over the world have been trying to counter this trend, enacting policies designed to encourage bigger families—by providing longer parental leave, more and cheaper childcare options, and even direct tax incentives. But so far, the desire for fewer children seems nearly impossible to change. Why? Jennifer Sciubba is a demographer, political scientist, and the author of [8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World](. For Sciubba, there’s no single factor driving the trend. Some reasons for people’s decisions on whether, when, and how many children to have are economic; some are cultural; some are technological; and they vary tremendously from region to region. Identifying them all, let alone weighing them all against one other, is difficult business. Still, researchers increasingly see one driver standing out among all others globally: a shift in social mores—in values. And as Sciubba says, values are highly resistant to change. [Read on]( The Signal is a new current-affairs brand for understanding democratic life, the trend lines shaping it, and the challenges confronting it. Learn [more](. And [join](—to be a valued member, support our growth, and have full access. Advertisement From Moisés Naím at The Signal: - “In a lot of countries with low birth rates, marriage remains a prerequisite for having children, and marriage rates are declining, as well. And here, many demographic researchers trace this decline to the cell phone, actually. Their perspective is that these devices reorient people toward highly individualistic, non-tactile relationships. And so, these researchers say, parasocial relationships—one-sided interactions between a media user and someone they know only through technology—are replacing actual relationships. Demographers will need to do a lot more research on this, but it makes some sense intuitively—and it fits with a lot of the year-by-year data on increasing cell-phone usage and declining fertility and marriage rates.” - “Demographers usually focus on policy making at the country level, but there are small communities around the world that have seen some reversals in very low birth rates—as in Italy or Japan. These places worked hard to create family-friendly cultures, where children are part of social life. I think we’re going to see more research on these places—and that we might find some interesting answers there.” - “We say in demography that you can show two people the same data and get two opposite reactions. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing with the data on lower birth rates. Some groups are celebrating it, even saying it’s not low enough; others are calling it an existential crisis, spelling the end not just of their country but even of humanity. The truth could wind up at either extreme, depending on how we respond to everything driving these changes.” [Read on]( The world is complex, ambiguous, and inherently uncertain … That’s why we look at it the way a detective would: Everything The Signal does starts with good questions, and every answer leads us to more of them. Become a [member]( to unlock this full conversation and explore the archive. Advertisement From asking for directions in Tokyo to ordering dinner in Rome … How can you pick up the language skills to feel confident navigating any travel situation? [Learn more]( Don’t get lost in translation. Start your Babbel subscription for 55% off … And unlock a world of possibilities. NOTES Tremors in Tokyo Getty Images On August 14, not even three years into his term, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he would step down in September. For much of Japan’s post–World War II history, administrations have rarely served a full term, and prime ministers have regularly resigned after a year or two—even as the Liberal Democratic Party controlled the government every year but one since 1955. The new century seemed to bring a new stability to Japan, with Junichiro Koizumi leading the country for five years and then Shinzo Abe for eight. So what happened with Kishida? [News reports]( have cited corruption scandals: LDP officials held fundraisers but kept some of the donations in secret slush funds—and Kishida largely brushed off responsibility, helping push his approval rating down to 25 percent. But they also cite polls that show acute anger about the economy. Since the pandemic, the cost of living has climbed dramatically in Japan, where inflation carries a special weight: For decades, the country has struggled with a stagnant economy—including stagnant wages, minimal GDP growth, and prices either holding steady or, in some cases, declining. You can see the connection to a global pattern that extends far beyond Japan, around the post-pandemic world: Globally, economic turbulence has driven the cost of food, energy, and a lot of consumer goods higher—and a political wave against incumbents wider. —Michael Bluhm [Explore Notes]( Want more? 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