What a return-to-office uptick means for the market; Official shutters Aspen office... and more

The best national real estate stories from The Real Deal Aug 31, 2024 [View in Browser]( | [$1 for 1 Month]( [The Real Deal Logo](   [The National Logo](   In today’s newsletter, we look into what recent remote work trends could mean for the office market. Plus, Official suffers another blow, Yoel Goldman’s financial dealings are under fire again, and a Boca Raton couple is accused of siphoning over $40 million from investors. These stories and more below.   What a return-to-office uptick means for the market The commercial office market has faced a wave of challenges. In many cities, the tide of vacancies have risen to record highs while property values have plummeted. Nationally, delinquency rates for CMBS office loans in July hit 8 percent, a level last seen in 2013. Special servicing rates as of last month were up 2.6 percentage points from a year ago, signaling deeper trouble ahead. There could be a lifeline ahead. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin [cutting interest rates]( after its meeting in mid-September, which could help landlords stay afloat. But it remains uncertain how far and how fast rates will fall. A recent Moody’s report indicated that the office market [may have found its bottom](, as an uptick in sales at a significant loss is helping set new standards for prices. The horizon is still cloudy at best. But there’s some cautious optimism. Another glimmer of hope for the struggling office sector could be a recent return-to-office trend happening across the country. Office occupancy won’t be reaching pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, but data from Avison Young’s [Office Busyness Index]( shows that most major markets are trending in the right direction. New York City, which saw over [$21 billion in office transactions]( since the start of 2021, is among the leaders in the return-to-office movement. Manhattan office buildings are 79.3 percent as busy in July as they were in July 2019 – up roughly 13 percent year-over-year and [outpacing the national average]( of 63.7 percent. Mondays have been a particularly popular in-office day in New York as Manhattanites are starting the week in the office 30 percent more than the rest of the country. The same is true for [Bay Area office workers](, who are coming into the office on Mondays 50 percent more than they were a year ago, leading to a 7 percent year-over-year increase in overall foot traffic. That said, San Francisco lost hordes of office workers to remote work and still sits toward the bottom of the list of major markets making a return-to-office push. The city has seen valuations for distressed office buildings drop by [between 20 and 84 percent](, and its overall office vacancy rate is a record 37 percent. Chicago's office market also remains under strain, with the vacancy rate [reaching a record 25.8 percent]( at the midpoint of 2024. Large tenants are downsizing their footprints, with a strong work-from-home trend in both downtown and suburban markets. There are some other bright spots, though. Boston had its [busiest in-office month]( since the onset of the pandemic in July. Nashville is showing positive signs with [significant office leasing activity]( and a return to a more traditional office market. Dallas-Fort Worth is showing [signs of resilience]( despite sluggish office leasing activity and record vacancies, as Dallas’ core is seeing over 90 percent of employees come back to the office in person. Each market is moving at different paces and navigating their own unique challenges, but one thing is clear: the return to the office is happening. The office sector’s recovery will likely be a slow, gradual process, but just as tides eventually recede, there’s hope for calmer waters.   Advertisement   [I'm an image]( Alexanders’ brokerage Official shutters Aspen office Oren and Tal Alexander’s brokerage Official exited its lease in Aspen and has lost nearly all of its agents in the Colorado ski town. [I'm an image]( Yoel Goldman inflated financials at All Year, restructuring officer alleges A restructuring specialist tasked with cleaning up Yoel Goldman’s mess has reported more misdeeds by the former Brooklyn landlord. [I'm an image]( “Crumbling:” GVA investor alleges Alan Stalcup hiding $100M in assets The head of GVA was slapped with yet another suit alleging he went behind investors’ backs on a deal by scoring a secret loan and cross-collateralizing it with another portfolio.   Advertisement   [I'm an image]( [Brand Studio ArtBridge and CORE Turn Green Scaffolds into Gallery Walls Around NYC]( [I'm an image]( Brandon Miller left behind $34M in personal debts Brandon Miller had almost $34 million in debt and just $8,000 in his bank account when he died by suicide last month. [I'm an image]( Related, Fortress, USIF to develop Pacific Park as joint venture The plan for Pacific Park, although not the megaproject itself, is finally coming into focus. [I'm an image]( Boca Raton couple siphoned over $40M from investors in a real estate fraud, SEC alleges The couple siphoned off most of the $56 million they raised from 660 people nationwide for purported real estate investments, according to an SEC lawsuit. [I'm an image]( Convicted investor Boruch Drillman sues to stop Chicago foreclosure The investor narrowly dodged a lender’s foreclosure of an industrial property on Chicago’s South Side with an emergency court filing. [I'm an image]( Fashion Nova’s Richard Saghian Buys Beverly Hills HQ for $118M I'm a new Text block ready for your content.     [The Real Deal Logo]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( [YouTube]( [Manage Newsletters](link.therealdeal.com/manage/61n/preferences?email={EMAIL}&hash=c3ef811325e0489c79ef984bae8ea606) | [Unsubscribe](list=National Weekly) | [Privacy Policy]( | [Subscribe]( | [Advertise]( The Real Deal 450 West 31st Street, New York, NY 10001 ©2024 TheRealDeal. All rights reserved. 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