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Why I'm Out of the FX Market, Made 1,726 Pips in November & Found 2 Big Trades For 2018

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thepatterntrader.com

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mark@thepatterntrader.com

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Wed, Jan 3, 2018 07:06 PM

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Hey there Friend, I closed every last one of my currency positions this week. And this will be my la

Hey there Friend, I closed every last one of my currency positions this week. And this will be my last report for 2017. Here's why ... The markets are now entering a pretty choppy range-bound phase as we go into the second half of December. Lots of traders are taking off for the holidays and this creates low liquidity situations where spreads widen and volatility can be unusually high and unstable. But there's another reason too: it's also important emotionally and financially to take a break. I've always found that when I take a couple weeks off I always do a lot better when I come back. For some reason the human mind needs rebooting process and I think this is as good a time as any. So my next video report will be on Sunday January 7. But before I sign off for the year, let's discuss how November went ... plus a couple trade ideas going into 2018 that represent big opportunities going forward. Here's a snapshot of the daily trades I sent to my Elite members for November: We really rung the bell and took home 1,726 pips. For every one lot contract that means about $17,260 in your account. Almost all those November gains came primarily on the basis of my long-term call to go long the British pound vs the New Zealand dollar (GBPNZD). This has been my big pair for 2017. After all, I started began yelling from the rooftops that GBPNZD was a buy in the low 170s and we recently hit the high 190s. In fact, I got out of this trade at 197.87 on a take profit. That was very close to the high for the move at 198.97. We took 845 and 776 pips on two trades in GBPNZD. That makes almost 1,600 pips in one trade. You see, my strategy as a pattern trader is to find the one or two trades that deliver the biggest profits while the lesser ones are a wash between small wins and small losses. That's because you're simply not going to survive as a forex trader if your method relies on a high number of small wins and few losses. The real money in the markets comes from picking the big winners and hanging on for the mega-gains. That's how we’ve pulled in well over 9,000 pips over the last year. For every one lot contract that means $90,000 in your account. (Even small accounts could have brought in over $9,000 or more.) My confidence in making these trades is based on my analysis of very simple price patterns and the enormous moves they predict. Throughout my 36 year trading career I built my reputation on identifying exactly those kind of price chart precedents and taking advantage of them before they happen. I'll be the first one to admit that the patterns I look at are nothing revolutionary -- they've been well known for a long time. But must traders have never learn how to use them properly. So let me share with you one or two trade ideas that I think could emerge into a similar opportunity as GBPNZD. (I'm going to have a lot more to say about GBPNZD in the new year, believe me! But for now, here are two new opportunities you'll want to consider for 2018 as it rolls around.) 6-to-1 Reward on USDJPY A chart that's showing some promising similarities to GBPNZD in terms of patterns and price action, is the U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen (USDJPY). Going all the way back in 2015, the double top at the peak of the head-and-shoulders pattern represented the apex of where this pair might go. A double top looks just like it suggests -- the pair makes an all-time new high and then fails twice in a row. This acts as a reversal pattern from a long-term uptrend to a long-term downtrend. Now you can't quite see it on this chart, but USDJPY was in a five-year uptrend from the low 70s all the way to 126. When we got to 126 that double top marked the high. Not just the double top, but also the entire head and shoulders put an end to USDJPY bullishness even though it happened a couple of years ago. That's why it's the bearish cloud that sits over USDJPY and projects where prices will ultimately go. Especially when the price retested the neckline and then failed to hold with another double top right at 118. More recently we've been tracing out a descending wedge triangle in this pair. It's one of my favorite bear patterns and you can see that a couple weeks ago, we had a breakout above the descending trend line. That's actually bullish, but not when it's a false breakout. It was a bear trap. There have now been two rejections above that trendline including last week's key reversal where the market made a new high and then closed on the low. So now there's a short-term double top right at 114. And I foresee prices are going to plummet back into this triangle with nothing but bearish implications for future price action. This is why going into 2018, a USDJPY short looks like an excellent risk versus reward scenario. You see, the 114 area seems like the high point and I project prices dropping all the way back to initial support at 100. So you have perhaps 200 pips on the upside. And 1,200 pips on the downside. That translates to a 6 to 1 risk reward on this trade. While I'm not recommending any positions for the next couple weeks this is well worth watching for now. If you're especially aggressive, consider probing the short side of this market with a sell stop under last week's low at the 112 area. Put your stop-loss above last week's high. The price should drop to at least 108 but if it breaks through there we're going back to parity at 100. So again, for those who are more inclined and want to find a trade in the next couple weeks, I would start probing the short side of USDJPY. The rest of us can take a nice holiday and way for further confirmation in the new year. Another Good Short, Franc-ly Speaking I anticipate a general strengthening of the yen across the board in 2018. So another pair that I really like on a risk/reward basis is the Swiss franc versus Japanese yen (CHFJPY). Here's why: the governing pattern in CHFJPY has been a long term descending wedge. It broke out of this pattern, rose to Neckline 1 and then traced out second, short-term descending wedge. So we have a long term and now a shorter term descending wedge triangle in CHFJPY. Both these patterns are very bearish. I'd wait for bearish confirmation below the 112 level but again, if you're very aggressive then start probing the short side with a sell stop right under last week's inside bar. You could also try a buy stop slightly above last week's high. CHFJPY might still have some work to do within the newest descending wedge before it drops hard. However, the main direction is down. Any rise back to the newest sloping downtrend line would represent an ultimate opportunity to get short in CHFJPY. Just remember that I won't be making any of these trades myself. These are my high profile targets going into early 2018, but I'm not moving into them yet as I’m taking a rest. I suggest you also take a breather to reboot your spirit, reboot your mind and come back for what should be a robust first part of 2018. I also want to say a word to all my loyal and supportive Pattern Trader members around the world before I sign off. You've made this a fantastic year for me. When I started the Pattern Trader service in 2015, I had no idea what to expect. Least of all the second family you've all become. After all, so many of you are showing up at my weekly master pattern trader sessions and my boot camps time after time. I see a lot of familiar voices and it means a tremendous amount to me. So I can't thank you enough. I wish each and every one of you the best holiday period. Let's have as great a 2018 as 2017 turned out to be. So thanks again everybody and happy holidays! Talk soon in 2018, Mark Shawzin P.S. Early in the new year, I'm going to hold another LIVE 2-Day Bootcamp where I'll demonstrate exactly how to make currency trades just like the ones I've outlined here, including my "Lazy Trader's" 5-step execution plan that's pulled in more than 9,000 pips in the last 12 months. [Find out more about the Bootcamp here at this link]( If you're interested just check out that link. Let me help you identify and capitalize upon the biggest moves in the currency markets. Seats are limited so don't delay! Don't miss your chance to capitalize on what should be some very powerful movements early next year. The Pattern Trader 13730 IMPERIAL TOPAZ TRL DELRAY BEACH FL 33446 [Unsubscribe](

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