An expert panel, set up by an institute under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), has predicted a third wave of Covid-19 hitting the country anytime between September and October and suggested significantly ramping up the pace of vaccination. The committee of experts, constituted by the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), also said that children will have a similar risk as adults since paediatric facilities, doctors and equipment like ventilators, ambulances, etc. are nowhere close to what may be required in case a large number of children become infected. The report, which has been submitted to the Prime Ministerâs Office (PMO), observed that only around 7.6% (10.4 cr) people are fully vaccinated in India and if the current vaccination rate is not increased, India can witness six lakh cases per day in the next wave. âLeading experts have repeatedly warned of an imminent third Covid-19 wave in India. Epidemiologists predict a series of surges till we achieve herd immunity through infection or vaccination and the disease becomes endemic,â the report said. The NIDM report quoted the prediction of experts from IIT Kanpur which suggested three likely scenarios for the third wave based on the level of unlocking. In scenario one, it said that the third wave could peak in October with 3.2 lakh positive cases per day. In scenario two, with the emergence of new and more virulent variants, the third wave could peak in September with likely five lakh positive cases per day. In scenario three, the experts predicted that the third wave could peak in late October with two lakh positive cases per day. According to the report, earlier, it was proposed that if 67% of the population became immune (a few by infection and rest through vaccination), herd immunity could be achieved. But this has now been complicated by the new and more virulent mutated variants of SARS Cov-2 that have the ability to escape immunity from earlier infections and in some cases even the prevalent vaccines, it said. This has pushed the target immune population for achieving herd immunity to 80-90%, it said, The report said there isnât sufficient data to back widespread fears that children will be hit more severely in the anticipated third wave of the pandemic. However, as the virus continues to evolve, this is going to be a major challenge for children as there is no approved vaccine for children in India yet (first week of August). Children with Covid-19 infection have largely been seen to be asymptomatic or develop mild symptoms. But this becomes worrisome in case children have any comorbidity or other special needs. According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, out of all the children hospitalised due to Covid-19, 60-70% had comorbidities or low immunity. Children have also been seen to develop MIS-C (Multi-system Inflammatory Syndrome) which is a rare but extremely serious condition developed post-Covid recovery, it said. According to a parliamentary standing committee report in 2015, there is an 82% shortage of paediatricians in Indiaâs primary health centres and up to 62.8% of positions for paediatricians in community health centres were vacant. According to a recent study done by professors and alumni from Pandit Deendayal Energy University (PDEU) in collaboration with Nirma University, the vaccination rate of India is currently 3.2% and if does not improve, India can witness six lakh cases per day in the third wave. CM Nitish-led all party team from Bihar meets PM Modi for caste census Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar along with a delegation of leaders from ten parties from the State, including RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and BJP representatives, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi to press for a caste census. Modi, it is learnt, has not given any assurances, though the meeting was described as positive. So far the BJP has walked a tightrope on the issue, with leaders from Bihar speaking in favour of a caste census while the party leadership at the Centre has kept mum. The wider implication of such a census on the partyâs carefully crafted OBC bloc in U.P. has kept it on tenterhooks. Sources said the Prime Minister did not counter the delegation nor did he express the Centreâs inability to carry out such an exercise. Given that the last caste census was done in 1931, the delegation argued that it would be a historic step, if the Prime Minister was to hold a census now. At the end of the meeting after listening to each member of the delegation, Modi, as per sources, said he will get the issue thoroughly examined. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Kumar said all parties spoke in one voice. âIt is up to the Prime Minister and the Union government to decide. We explained our stand and he sincerely heard us out,â he said. He also said that the fear that a caste census will bring a return of the Mandal days with widespread protests and chaos is misplaced. âEvery person no matter which caste or religion he is from wants the caste census to take place. Once we have the caste data, then we can formulate policies for upliftment of each and every caste,â the Chief Minister said. Tejashwi Yadav, who was part of the delegation, said that if the animals and trees can be counted so can people. âThe caste census is in national interest. It will help the poor and deprived sections of the society.â The recent narrative on caste census built up by the Bihar parties could impact the U.P. elections. A senior leader who was part of the delegation said that when every political party in the country is demanding a caste census, and with BJP themselves claiming that they are not against it, the Centre will be hard put to delay it. âThe OBC community in every State is getting restive. They feel that their population, which is more than 55%, is not getting the benefits that they deserve. The reservation somehow is only applicable to class four posts. There is not a single secretary in any of the ministries here in Delhi who is from the OBC community,â JD (U) leader K.C. Tyagi said. Former Deputy CM of Bihar and Rajya Sabha MP Sushil Modi, ahead of Monday's meeting in a series of tweets, had said, âBJP has never been against caste census; thatâs why we supported the resolution passed in the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council on this issue. BJP is also included in the delegation of Bihar to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.â No immediate plan to ban two Hurriyat factions, says official The Central government is currently not thinking about any ban on the two Hurriyat factions, said a government official on Monday. Responding to reports in a section of the media that the Centre was considering a ban on the Hurriyat factions under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), the official said there was no such plan at this stage. The Ministry of Home Affairs had banned the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) under the UAPA in March 2019, days after the Jamat-e-Islami (JeI-J&K) was proscribed under Section 3(1) of the Act. The decision to ban the JKLF followed a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The government decides to ban any organisation based on evidence warranting such a step. In the past, probe agencies like the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) have taken legal action against several separatists in Jammu and Kashmir. In July 2017, the NIA arrested seven persons, including Altaf Ahmed Shah who is the son-in-law of Syed Ali Shah Geelani. In a charge sheet filed in January 2018, it arraigned several separatist leaders for their alleged involvement in orchestrating violent protests in J&K. The NIA also conducted searches in February 2019 at multiple locations, including the premises of Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, JKLF chief Yasin Malik, Jammu and Kashmir Democratic Freedom Party president Shabir Shah, Tehreek-e-Hurriyat chairman Mohammad Ashraf Khan and All Party Hurriyat Conference general secretary Masarat Alam. I-T portal glitches: Finance Minister sets September 15 as deadline for Infosys to resolve issues Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday conveyed to Infosys CEO Salil Parekh in no uncertain terms the governmentâs âdeep disappointment and concernâ over the continuing glitches in the new income tax filing portal and set September 15 as the deadline for the software major to resolve all snags. As glitches continued to mar the functioning of the portal even after over two months of its launch, Sitharaman summoned Infosys MD & CEO Parekh at her office here to know the reasons for not resolving the snags in the portal. A statement issued by the Income Tax Department said that during the meeting the finance minister emphasised that there is a need for putting in more resources and efforts on the part of Infosys so that the much delayed delivery of agreed services is ensured. âHonâble Finance Minister demanded that the issues faced by taxpayers on current functionalities of the portal should be resolved by the team by 15th September 2021 so that taxpayers and professionals can work seamlessly on the portal,â the I-T department said in a statement after the meeting. Sitharaman, the statement said, conveyed âthe deep disappointment and concerns of the government and the taxpayersâ about the continuing glitches in the e-filing portal. âShe sought an explanation from Infosys for the repeated issues faced by taxpayers,â it added. During the meeting, Parekh was also sensitised on the difficulties that the taxpayers were facing and the problems that are arising on account of the delays in the functioning of the portal. âParekh explained that he and his team are doing everything to ensure the smooth functioning of the portal. Further, he said, over 750 team members are working on this project and Pravin Rao, COO of Infosys, is personally overseeing this project. He also assured that Infosys is working expeditiously to ensure a glitch-free experience to the taxpayers on the portal,â the statement added. The portal, which went live on June 7, was not accessible on August 21 and 22 till late evening. It came back after what the tech major described as an âemergency maintenance.â This is the second time that Sitharaman has met the Infosys team over the issue. She had on June 22 met Parekh and Rao. Infosys was awarded the â¹4,242 crore contract in 2019 to develop the new portal. The project was aimed at developing the next-generation income tax filing system to reduce processing time for returns from 63 days to one day and also expedite refunds. Between January 2019 to June 2021, the government has paid â¹164.5 crore to Infosys for developing the portal. The new income tax e-filing portal 'www.incometax.gov.in', however, faced tech glitches from day one with users complaining that certain functionalities were either unavailable or working slow. Consequently, the I-T department had to allow the manual filing of remittance forms and also extend due dates for electronic filing of forms related to intimation by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. PHDCCI Chair Direct Tax Committee Mukul Bagla said India has around 7 crore persons or entities who file their income tax returns. Due to glitches in the income tax portal, their day-to-day functioning has been adversely affected since June 7. Taxpayers are unable to download documents filed earlier with the income tax department or file their income tax returns for AY 2021-22 if they opt for new rates u/s 115BAC. The assessee is not able to file returns pursuant to notice u/s 148, file reply to penalty proceedings etc. Many other important tax functions have been affected, he said. âIn the absence of a fully functional income tax portal, we should suspend all income tax proceedings till it is functional and further extend due dates of filing ITR. Otherwise the life of the tax payer as well as the tax professional is very miserable,â Bagla added. â¹6 lakh cr national monetisation plan announced for infrastructure assets Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday announced a â¹6 lakh crore National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) that will look to unlock value in infrastructure assets across sectors, ranging from power to road and railways. She also said the asset monetisation does not involve selling of land and it is about monetising brownfield assets. Projects have been identified across sectors, with roads, railways and power being the top segments. âNMP estimates aggregate monetisation potential of â¹6 lakh crores through core assets of central government over the four-year period from FY 2022 to FY 2025,â she said. âOwnership of assets will remain with the government and there will be a mandatory hand-back.â Asset monetisation will unlock resources and lead to value unlocking, she said. Union Budget 2021-22 had identified monetisation of operating public infrastructure assets as a key means for sustainable infrastructure financing. Towards this, the Budget provided for preparation of a âNational Monetisation Pipelineâ of potential brownfield infrastructure assets. NITI Aayog in consultation with infra line ministries has prepared the report on NMP. The aggregate asset pipeline under NMP over the four-year period is indicatively valued at â¹6 lakh crore. The estimated value corresponds to 14% of the proposed outlay for Centre under the National Infrastructure Pipeline (â¹43 lakh crore). The end objective of this initiative is to enable âinfrastructure creation through monetisationâ wherein the public and private sector collaborate, each excelling in their core areas of competence, so as to deliver socio-economic growth and quality of life to the countryâs citizens, she added. Clinical trial participants to get digital vaccination certificates Digital Covid-19 vaccination certificates will now be issued to the clinical trial participants of Covishield and Covaxin through Co-WIN, tweeted Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Monday. The Minister added that the nation âthanks them (trial participants) for their incredible commitment & contribution to COVID-19 vaccine research & treatment.â He said participants can download their individual certificates through Co-WIN Portal, Aarogya Setu, Digilocker or the UMANG application. The Union Health Ministry in its release noted that Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in partnership with Serum Institute of India (SII) had conducted phase II/III bridging studies of Covishield from August 2020. Phase III efficacy clinical trials for Covaxin were also conducted by Bharat Biotech International Limited from November 2020. Covid Watch: Numbers and Developments The number of reported coronavirus cases from India stood at 3,24,53,929 at the time of publishing this newsletter, with the death toll at 4,34,901. Evening Wrap will return tomorrow. [logo] The Evening Wrap 23 AUGUST 2021 [The Hindu logo] Welcome to the Evening Wrap newsletter, your guide to the dayâs biggest stories with concise analysis from The Hindu. [[Arrow]Open in browser]( [[Mail icon]More newsletters]( Experts warn of imminent third wave of COVID-19 in Sept-Oct An expert panel, set up by an institute under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), has [predicted a third wave of Covid-19]( hitting the country anytime between September and October and suggested significantly ramping up the pace of vaccination.  The committee of experts, constituted by the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), also said that children will have a similar risk as adults since paediatric facilities, doctors and equipment like ventilators, ambulances, etc. are nowhere close to what may be required in case a large number of children become infected.  [Forgetting social distancing, people are seen at the busy Ranganathan Street, T. Nagar, Chennai. File]  The report, which has been submitted to the Prime Ministerâs Office (PMO), observed that only around 7.6% (10.4 cr) people are fully vaccinated in India and if the current vaccination rate is not increased, India can witness six lakh cases per day in the next wave.  âLeading experts have repeatedly warned of an imminent third Covid-19 wave in India. Epidemiologists predict a series of surges till we achieve herd immunity through infection or vaccination and the disease becomes endemic,â the report said.  The NIDM report quoted the prediction of experts from IIT Kanpur which suggested three likely scenarios for the third wave based on the level of unlocking. In scenario one, it said that the third wave could peak in October with 3.2 lakh positive cases per day. In scenario two, with the emergence of new and more virulent variants, the third wave could peak in September with likely five lakh positive cases per day. In scenario three, the experts predicted that the third wave could peak in late October with two lakh positive cases per day.  According to the report, earlier, it was proposed that if 67% of the population became immune (a few by infection and rest through vaccination), herd immunity could be achieved. But this has now been complicated by the new and more virulent mutated variants of SARS Cov-2 that have the ability to escape immunity from earlier infections and in some cases even the prevalent vaccines, it said. This has pushed the target immune population for achieving herd immunity to 80-90%, it said,  The report said there isnât sufficient data to back widespread fears that children will be hit more severely in the anticipated third wave of the pandemic. However, as the virus continues to evolve, this is going to be a major challenge for children as there is no approved vaccine for children in India yet (first week of August).  Children with Covid-19 infection have largely been seen to be asymptomatic or develop mild symptoms. But this becomes worrisome in case children have any comorbidity or other special needs.  According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, out of all the children hospitalised due to Covid-19, 60-70% had comorbidities or low immunity.  Children have also been seen to develop MIS-C (Multi-system Inflammatory Syndrome) which is a rare but extremely serious condition developed post-Covid recovery, it said. According to a parliamentary standing committee report in 2015, there is an 82% shortage of paediatricians in Indiaâs primary health centres and up to 62.8% of positions for paediatricians in community health centres were vacant.  According to a recent study done by professors and alumni from Pandit Deendayal Energy University (PDEU) in collaboration with Nirma University, the vaccination rate of India is currently 3.2% and if does not improve, India can witness six lakh cases per day in the third wave. [underlineimg]  CM Nitish-led all party team from Bihar meets PM Modi for caste census  Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar along with a delegation of leaders from ten parties from the State, including RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and BJP representatives, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi [to press for a caste census.]( Modi, it is learnt, has not given any assurances, though the meeting was described as positive.  So far the BJP has walked a tightrope on the issue, with leaders from Bihar speaking in favour of a caste census while the party leadership at the Centre has kept mum. The wider implication of such a census on the partyâs carefully crafted OBC bloc in U.P. has kept it on tenterhooks.  Sources said the Prime Minister did not counter the delegation nor did he express the Centreâs inability to carry out such an exercise. Given that the last caste census was done in 1931, the delegation argued that it would be a historic step, if the Prime Minister was to hold a census now. At the end of the meeting after listening to each member of the delegation, Modi, as per sources, said he will get the issue thoroughly examined.  Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Kumar said all parties spoke in one voice. âIt is up to the Prime Minister and the Union government to decide. We explained our stand and he sincerely heard us out,â he said.  He also said that the fear that a caste census will bring a return of the Mandal days with widespread protests and chaos is misplaced. âEvery person no matter which caste or religion he is from wants the caste census to take place. Once we have the caste data, then we can formulate policies for upliftment of each and every caste,â the Chief Minister said.  Tejashwi Yadav, who was part of the delegation, said that if the animals and trees can be counted so can people. âThe caste census is in national interest. It will help the poor and deprived sections of the society.â  The recent narrative on caste census built up by the Bihar parties could impact the U.P. elections. A senior leader who was part of the delegation said that when every political party in the country is demanding a caste census, and with BJP themselves claiming that they are not against it, the Centre will be hard put to delay it.  âThe OBC community in every State is getting restive. They feel that their population, which is more than 55%, is not getting the benefits that they deserve. The reservation somehow is only applicable to class four posts. There is not a single secretary in any of the ministries here in Delhi who is from the OBC community,â JD (U) leader K.C. Tyagi said.  Former Deputy CM of Bihar and Rajya Sabha MP Sushil Modi, ahead of Monday's meeting in a series of tweets, had said, âBJP has never been against caste census; thatâs why we supported the resolution passed in the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council on this issue. BJP is also included in the delegation of Bihar to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.â [underlineimg]  No immediate plan to ban two Hurriyat factions, says official [
All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference (APHC) chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq. File
]  The Central government is currently [not thinking about any ban on the two Hurriyat factions]( said a government official on Monday. Responding to reports in a section of the media that the Centre was considering a ban on the Hurriyat factions under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), the official said there was no such plan at this stage.  The Ministry of Home Affairs had banned the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) under the UAPA in March 2019, days after the Jamat-e-Islami (JeI-J&K) was proscribed under Section 3(1) of the Act.  The decision to ban the JKLF followed a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The government decides to ban any organisation based on evidence warranting such a step. In the past, probe agencies like the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) have taken legal action against several separatists in Jammu and Kashmir.  In July 2017, the NIA arrested seven persons, including Altaf Ahmed Shah who is the son-in-law of Syed Ali Shah Geelani. In a charge sheet filed in January 2018, it arraigned several separatist leaders for their alleged involvement in orchestrating violent protests in J&K. The NIA also conducted searches in February 2019 at multiple locations, including the premises of Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, JKLF chief Yasin Malik, Jammu and Kashmir Democratic Freedom Party president Shabir Shah, Tehreek-e-Hurriyat chairman Mohammad Ashraf Khan and All Party Hurriyat Conference general secretary Masarat Alam. [underlineimg]  I-T portal glitches: Finance Minister sets September 15 as deadline for Infosys to resolve issues  Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday conveyed to Infosys CEO Salil Parekh in no uncertain terms the governmentâs âdeep disappointment and concernâ over the continuing glitches in the new income tax filing portal and [set September 15 as the deadline for the software major to resolve all snags](.  As glitches continued to mar the functioning of the portal even after over two months of its launch, Sitharaman summoned Infosys MD & CEO Parekh at her office here to know the reasons for not resolving the snags in the portal.  A statement issued by the Income Tax Department said that during the meeting the finance minister emphasised that there is a need for putting in more resources and efforts on the part of Infosys so that the much delayed delivery of agreed services is ensured.  âHonâble Finance Minister demanded that the issues faced by taxpayers on current functionalities of the portal should be resolved by the team by 15th September 2021 so that taxpayers and professionals can work seamlessly on the portal,â the I-T department said in a statement after the meeting.  Sitharaman, the statement said, conveyed âthe deep disappointment and concerns of the government and the taxpayersâ about the continuing glitches in the e-filing portal. âShe sought an explanation from Infosys for the repeated issues faced by taxpayers,â it added.  During the meeting, Parekh was also sensitised on the difficulties that the taxpayers were facing and the problems that are arising on account of the delays in the functioning of the portal.  âParekh explained that he and his team are doing everything to ensure the smooth functioning of the portal. Further, he said, over 750 team members are working on this project and Pravin Rao, COO of Infosys, is personally overseeing this project. He also assured that Infosys is working expeditiously to ensure a glitch-free experience to the taxpayers on the portal,â the statement added.  The portal, which went live on June 7, was not accessible on August 21 and 22 till late evening. It came back after what the tech major described as an âemergency maintenance.â This is the second time that Sitharaman has met the Infosys team over the issue. She had on June 22 met Parekh and Rao.  Infosys was awarded the â¹4,242 crore contract in 2019 to develop the new portal. The project was aimed at developing the next-generation income tax filing system to reduce processing time for returns from 63 days to one day and also expedite refunds. Between January 2019 to June 2021, the government has paid â¹164.5 crore to Infosys for developing the portal.  The new income tax e-filing portal 'www.incometax.gov.in', however, faced tech glitches from day one with users complaining that certain functionalities were either unavailable or working slow.  Consequently, the I-T department had to allow the manual filing of remittance forms and also extend due dates for electronic filing of forms related to intimation by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.  PHDCCI Chair Direct Tax Committee Mukul Bagla said India has around 7 crore persons or entities who file their income tax returns. Due to glitches in the income tax portal, their day-to-day functioning has been adversely affected since June 7.  Taxpayers are unable to download documents filed earlier with the income tax department or file their income tax returns for AY 2021-22 if they opt for new rates u/s 115BAC. The assessee is not able to file returns pursuant to notice u/s 148, file reply to penalty proceedings etc. Many other important tax functions have been affected, he said.  âIn the absence of a fully functional income tax portal, we should suspend all income tax proceedings till it is functional and further extend due dates of filing ITR. Otherwise the life of the tax payer as well as the tax professional is very miserable,â Bagla added. [underlineimg]  â¹6 lakh cr national monetisation plan announced for infrastructure assets [Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. File]   Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday announced a [â¹6 lakh crore National Monetisation Pipeline]( (NMP) that will look to unlock value in infrastructure assets across sectors, ranging from power to road and railways.  She also said the asset monetisation does not involve selling of land and it is about monetising brownfield assets. Projects have been identified across sectors, with roads, railways and power being the top segments.  âNMP estimates aggregate monetisation potential of â¹6 lakh crores through core assets of central government over the four-year period from FY 2022 to FY 2025,â she said. âOwnership of assets will remain with the government and there will be a mandatory hand-back.â Asset monetisation will unlock resources and lead to value unlocking, she said.  Union Budget 2021-22 had identified monetisation of operating public infrastructure assets as a key means for sustainable infrastructure financing. Towards this, the Budget provided for preparation of a âNational Monetisation Pipelineâ of potential brownfield infrastructure assets. NITI Aayog in consultation with infra line ministries has prepared the report on NMP.  The aggregate asset pipeline under NMP over the four-year period is indicatively valued at â¹6 lakh crore. The estimated value corresponds to 14% of the proposed outlay for Centre under the National Infrastructure Pipeline (â¹43 lakh crore).  The end objective of this initiative is to enable âinfrastructure creation through monetisationâ wherein the public and private sector collaborate, each excelling in their core areas of competence, so as to deliver socio-economic growth and quality of life to the countryâs citizens, she added. [underlineimg]  Clinical trial participants to get digital vaccination certificates  Digital Covid-19 vaccination certificates will now be [issued to the clinical trial participants of Covishield and Covaxin]( through Co-WIN, tweeted Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Monday.  The Minister added that the nation âthanks them (trial participants) for their incredible commitment & contribution to COVID-19 vaccine research & treatment.â He said participants can download their individual certificates through Co-WIN Portal, Aarogya Setu, Digilocker or the UMANG application.  The Union Health Ministry in its release noted that Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in partnership with Serum Institute of India (SII) had conducted phase II/III bridging studies of Covishield from August 2020. Phase III efficacy clinical trials for Covaxin were also conducted by Bharat Biotech International Limited from November 2020. [underlineimg]  Covid Watch: Numbers and Developments  The number of reported coronavirus cases from India stood at 3,24,53,929 at the time of publishing this newsletter, with the death toll at 4,34,901.  [underlineimg] Evening Wrap will return tomorrow.  Today's Top Picks [[China's game plan in Afghanistan | In Focus podcast] China's game plan in Afghanistan | In Focus podcast](
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