Editor's Pick: The variant of concern

The Union Health Ministry has told the Supreme Court that the possibility of a resurgence in the number of COVID-19 cases after the second wave dies down was in the realm of speculation as of now. The Ministry also told the court that there is no evidence that children would be the next age group to bear the brunt of coronavirus infections. It updated the court that trials for vaccinating those below 18 years of age had begun. Even with vaccination proceeding at quick pace in many countries, a 'third wave' of COVID-19 has been a looming threat across the globe since new variants of the virus have been found to be potent even among vaccinated people. A recent poll of medical experts by Reuters showed that most expected it to start in India in October. The experts also agree that it will be a more controlled wave than the earlier ones, considering the extent of vaccination. A recent mathematical modelling study led by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the Imperial College London adds to this optimism of the third wave being more a bump than a peak. The model shows that for the third wave to be just as critical as the second, more than one-third of those who have developed immunity to the disease should lose it; and, the reproductive rate of the virus must be over 4.5, which means one infected person should infect four to 5 other people. There are no indications so far that this level of transmission is happening. However, The Hindu's editorial today cautions against underestimating the third wave, just as how "none of India’s eminent institutions... forecast the scale and intensity of the second wave." The editorial also reminds people that there is no clarity on the effectiveness of vaccines against variants such as Delta and Delta Plus. "There is also, so far, no theoretical limit on how infectious the coronavirus can become," it adds. This note of caution that needs to be added to the Health Ministry's submission in court is what makes the story important. The Hindu's Editorials Another shade of grey: On Pakistan staying in FATF list Caution and optimism: On preventing the third wave Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Head over to our newsletter subscription page to sign up for Editor's Pick and more. Click here Try out The Hindu's daily news quiz The forthcoming ICC T20 World Cup, originally scheduled to be hosted in India, is set to be hosted by the BCCI in UAE and which other country? 1. Bahrain 2. Oman 3. Kuwait 4. Qatar To find out the answer and play the full quiz, click here [logo] Editor's Pick 28 JUNE 2021 [The Hindu logo] In the Editor's Pick newsletter, The Hindu explains why a story was important enough to be carried on the front page of today's edition of our newspaper. [Arrow]( [Open in browser]( [Mail icon]( [More newsletters]( Cautious optimism on the third wave [Cautious optimism on the third wave] The Union Health Ministry has told the Supreme Court that the possibility of a resurgence in the number of [COVID-19 cases]( after the [second wave dies down]( was in the realm of speculation as of now. The Ministry also told the court that there is no evidence that children would be the next age group to [bear the brunt of coronavirus infections](. It updated the court that trials for vaccinating those below 18 years of age had begun. Even with vaccination proceeding at quick pace in many countries, [a 'third wave' of COVID-19]( has been a looming threat across the globe since new variants of the virus have been found to be potent even among vaccinated people. A recent poll of medical experts by Reuters showed that most expected it to start in India in [October.]( The experts also agree that it will be a more controlled wave than the earlier ones, considering the extent of vaccination. A recent mathematical modelling study led by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the Imperial College London adds to this optimism of the third wave being more a bump than a peak. The model shows that for the third wave to be just as critical as the second, more than one-third of those who have developed immunity to the disease should lose it; and, the reproductive rate of the virus must be over 4.5, which means one infected person should infect four to 5 other people. There are no indications so far that this level of transmission is happening. However, [The Hindu's editorial today]( cautions against underestimating the third wave, just as how "none of India’s eminent institutions ... forecast the scale and intensity of the second wave." The editorial also reminds people that there is no clarity on the [effectiveness of vaccines]( against variants such as Delta and Delta Plus. "There is also, so far, no theoretical limit on how infectious the coronavirus can become," it adds. This note of caution that needs to be added to the Health Ministry's submission in court is what makes the story important. The Hindu's Editorials [Arrow][Another shade of grey: On Pakistan staying in FATF list]( [Arrow][Caution and optimism: On preventing the third wave]( [underlineimg] Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Head over to our newsletter subscription page to sign up for Editor's Pick and more. [Click here]( [underlineimg] Try out The Hindu's daily news quiz The forthcoming ICC T20 World Cup, originally scheduled to be hosted in India, is set to be hosted by  the BCCI in UAE and which other country? 1. Bahrain 2. Oman 3. Kuwait 4. 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