Worst Congress Ever?

Plus: A soft landing is in sight, CBO says ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ [The Fisc](   By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey Happy Friday! The Iowa caucuses are one month away. So enjoy the final days of 2023 because 2024 and the election are right around the corner! Soft Landing in Sight, CBO Says Economists are becoming more optimistic about winning the war against inflation without the need for a recession or sky-high unemployment, and on Friday the Congressional Budget Office released projections that show the much-discussed soft landing occurring in 2024. In its latest [outlook for the U.S. economy]( CBO said it expects the inflation rate to fall to 2.1% in 2024 — nearly reaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The drop from an estimated 2.9% annual inflation rate in 2023 to the 2.1% level will be driven by a weaker labor market and smaller increases in rents, CBO said. Inflation is expected to rise slightly in 2025, reaching 2.2% as the economy grows slightly faster, accelerating from an anemic but still positive 1.5% expansion in 2024 to 2.2% the following year. The labor market is projected to weaken modestly in 2024, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.9% at the end of 2023 to 4.4% by the end of 2024. CBO expects the unemployment rate to hold steady at the same rate throughout 2025. Compared to projections made at the beginning of 2023, CBO now thinks that the economy will be a bit weaker and unemployment a bit lower than it did before, while interest rates will be slightly higher. Meanwhile, Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council and President Joe Biden's top economic adviser, said Friday that the “width of the runway for [a] soft landing has gotten much bigger” according to recent economic data. She told reporters that "we've seen quite positive indicators, that inflation really has come down and it's going to continue to come down while the economy is going to maintain strength going into the next year.” Brainard noted that while financial markets are already reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the economy, it will take time for those good feelings to trickle down to ordinary Americans. Border Talks Still Have ‘Long Way to Go on a Lot of Issues’: Report Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, White House aides and Senate negotiators met Friday to continue working toward an agreement on a supplemental spending package including border policy changes. The negotiators are aiming to have their framework out by Sunday or Monday, Punchbowl News [reports]( but that may not be possible given the significant obstacles that remain. Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma, who has been leading talks for Republicans, [told]( reporters late Friday that negotiators have “a long way to go on a lot of issues.” Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona independent, told reporters that the talks were making progress. Sen. Chris Murphy, leading the negotiations for Democrats, reportedly acknowledged earlier in the day that the notion that a bill could be ready for the Senate floor next week is “very aggressive,” but said that the current emergencies require the effort. “We still have disagreements,” Murphy [said](. “But we have made progress.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Thursday that his chamber would vote next week on a supplemental package “no matter what,” but Democrats will also have some internal disagreements to reckon with as they consider border reforms. “A growing number of Senate Democrats, including Latino caucus members, are sounding the alarm over leaks that say the administration is prepared to support new authority to expel migrants without asylum screenings and expand their detention and deportation,” The Hill reported Friday morning. Case in point: “If @SenScumer thinks he can send us home for the weekend, quietly cave to Republicans’ anti-immigrant demands while nobody is watching, and then ambush Democrats expecting us to vote yes with a smile, he is TERRIBLY MISTAKEN,” Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey wrote in a social media [post]( Thursday. The bottom line: Senate negotiators are still racing to reach a deal amid concern that their momentum could evaporate once lawmakers return home for the holidays. But the chances of reaching an agreement and passing legislation within days still appear to be remote. Quote of the Day “There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us.” – An unnamed “senior US military official” quoted by [CNN]( warning of what might happen if Congress fails to provide additional aid for Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion. Western officials reportedly fear that a delay in U.S. support will lead European allies to pull back as well. “If we go south,” said Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, “our allies will too.” Column of the Day: ‘Worst. Congress. Ever.’ The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank crowns the current Congress as the worst and most ineffective ever, or at least a strong contender for the title. “It seems probable that no Congress in American history has spent so much time accomplishing so little as this one,” Milbank writes, adding that all signs point to the dysfunction continuing in 2024. His case is based on what House Republicans have accomplished in their year in power: “A bipartisan debt deal (on which they promptly reneged) to avoid a default crisis that they themselves created. A pair of temporary spending bills (both passed with mostly Democratic votes) to avert a government-shutdown crisis that they themselves created. The ouster of their speaker, nearly a month-long shutdown of the chamber as they sought another, and the expulsion of one of their members, who is now negotiating himself a plea deal. … “On Thursday, the House, exhausted from its labors, recessed for a three-week vacation, leaving behind a pile of urgent, unfinished business, including funds to arm Ukraine and fortify the southern border. When the lawmakers return, they will have just eight legislative days to pass something to avoid the latest government shutdown — on which they have made no progress so far. But before rushing home for the holidays, Republicans did manage to approve, in a party-line vote, a formal impeachment inquiry into Biden for imaginary crimes that even they could not identify.” [Read the full piece at The Washington Post.]( Number of the Day: 19% More older workers are staying on the job, with nearly one in five U.S. adults aged 65 and up being employed in 2023, according to a [new report]( from the Pew Research Center. The 19% employment rate for older workers is nearly twice as high as it was 35 years ago, Pew says. Older workers are earning more than they did previously, with an average pay rate of $22 per hour, and they’re working longer, too, with 62% working full time, compared with 47% in 1987. --------------------------------------------------------------- Send your feedback to yrosenberg@thefiscaltimes.com. --------------------------------------------------------------- Fiscal News Roundup - [White House Plows Ahead on Border Talks Despite Progressive Backlash]( – Axios - [Tensions Rise Among Democrats Over Looming Border Deal]( – The Hill - [Here’s How a Border Deal Could Affect People Seeking Asylum in the U.S.]( – New York Times - [Congressional Budget Office Projects Lower Inflation and Higher Unemployment Into 2025]( – Associated Press - [GOP Pushes Speaker Johnson to Start Picking Sides in Its Endless Battles]( – Politico - [Government Shutdown in January Looms as Congress Looks to Head Home]( – Washington Post - [Western Officials Warn Ukraine Is ‘Certain to Fail’ Against Russia if US Doesn’t Provide More Aid]( – CNN - [US Homelessness Up 12% to Highest Reported Level as Rents Soar and Coronavirus Pandemic Aid Lapses]( – Associated Press - [40 Percent of Student Loan Borrowers Missed Payments in October]( – Politico - [Treasury 30-Year Yield Falls to 4% in Fallout From Fed Shift]( – Bloomberg - [Biden and Obama Team Up for Obamacare Enrollment Push Following Trump’s Latest Repeal Threat]( – CNN - [Manchin Calls Upcoming Hydrogen Tax Credit Guidance ‘Horrible’: ‘We Are Fighting It’]( – The Hill - [A Former White House Scientist Was Scammed Out of $655,000. Then Came the IRS]( – Washington Post - [CDC Says There's Urgent Need to Increase Respiratory Vaccine Coverage]( – Reuters Views and Analysis - [Worst. Congress. Ever.]( – Dana Milbank, Washington Post - [The U.S. Hasn't Dodged a Recession (Yet). But These Signs Point to a Soft Landing]( – Paul Davidson, USA Today - [Why Fed’s Goal of ‘Soft Landing’ Looks Closer Now]( – Rich Miller, Bloomberg - [A Moral Theory for Why People Don’t Like Bidenomics]( – Ryan Cooper, American Prospect - [The Immigration Policy Spiral]( – David Dayen, American Prospect - [Biden’s Manufacturing Revival Could Actually Happen]( – Karl W. Smith, Bloomberg - [Child Care Is the Key to a Robust Industrial Workforce]( – Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Copyright © 2023 The Fiscal Times, All rights reserved. You are receiving this newsletter because you subscribed at our website or through Facebook. 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