‘No Border Security, No Funding,’ GOP Lawmaker Says

Plus: Deficit hit $1.6 trillion for first 10 months of FY2023 ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ [The Fisc](   By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey Happy Tuesday! On this date 49 years ago, President Richard Nixon announced his resignation, effective at noon the following day. Today was a much quieter news day. Here’s what we’re watching. Deficit Totals $1.6 Trillion for First 10 Months of Fiscal Year: CBO The federal budget deficit came to an estimated $1.6 trillion for the first 10 months of the 2023 fiscal year, according to the latest [monthly analysis]( from the Congressional Budget Office. The fiscal gap is more than twice as large this year as it was at the same point last year. Outlays have been 10% higher in the current fiscal year, which began in October 2022, while revenues have been 10% lower. In light of the most recent data, the CBO has revised its estimate for the full-year deficit. In May, CBO analysts projected a $1.5 trillion deficit. That estimate has been raised by $200 billion, with the full-year estimate now $1.7 trillion. Texas Rep. Chip Roy Says ‘No Border Security, No Funding’ for DHS With Congress facing a time crunch to fund the government by the end of September — once it returns from its August recess, of course — Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas is reportedly circulating a letter threatening to withhold money for the Department of Homeland Security unless Congress enacts a Republican crackdown on the southern border. “No border security, no funding,” Roy, a leading member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, says in his [letter]( to colleagues. Roy argues that his state “is bearing the brunt of a national crisis at our southern border” and he calls for new Homeland Security funding to be preconditioned on the enactment of a border-security bill, H.R. 2, that passed the Republican-led House this year but died in the Senate. Roy adds that he wants Texas to be reimbursed the $10 billion he says it has spent on border security efforts, with reimbursement also going to any other border state “that has demonstrated such significant law-enforcement related expenses.” Among other things, the congressman also calls for the ouster of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. “It wasn’t clear how many lawmakers would agree to sign on to the letter, which reflected a focus on the needs of Texas in addition to the more general concerns about federal spending,” The Wall Street Journal’s Siobhan Hughes [reports](. “A spokesman for McCarthy didn’t respond to a question about whether the ideas would be viable.” Why it matters: Roy’s [demands]( could further complicate the already difficult process of funding the government beyond September — a process that appears increasingly likely to detour into a partial government shutdown. Roy previously told Politico that he would oppose any stopgap Homeland Security funding that isn’t paired with border reforms and, as a member of the House Rules Committee, would also oppose starting floor debate on any such funding bill. Social Security Benefits Could Be Cut by $17,400 a Year When Trust Fund Runs Dry A typical retired couple could face a loss of $17,400 in their annual Social Security benefits in 2033, when the retirement program’s main trust fund is projected to run dry. That [estimate]( comes from the fiscal hawks at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The projected cut in benefits in 10 years would apply to a newly retired dual-income couple, while a typical, newly retired single-earner couple could see a cut of $13,100 per year. The 23% across-the-board reduction in benefits will occur if lawmakers fail to act to prop up the finances of the Social Security system before 2023. Under current law, once the Social Security trust fund is exhausted, benefit payouts would be limited to the amount of money flowing in from payroll taxes at the time — which would cover just an estimated 77% of total obligations. The dollar figure will vary for different types of households and different lifetime income levels. A high-income couple could see a cut of $23,000 per year, while a low-income couple could lose $10,600. While the numbers are an estimate, CRFB says they point to the pressing need to fix the funding problem before benefit cuts become necessary and unavoidable. “Any 2024 presidential candidate who pledges not to touch Social Security is implicitly endorsing a 23 percent across-the-board benefit cut for the 70 million retirees when the Social Security retirement trust fund reaches insolvency in just a decade,” the group said. Numbers of the Day 15: A total of 15 billion-dollar disasters occurred in the United States over the first seven months of 2023, the most for any January-through-July period since 1980, according to a new [report]( from the National Centers for Environmental Information, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The costly disasters — see a map of them [here]( — include 13 severe storm events, one winter storm and one flooding event. The events have caused 113 direct and indirect fatalities, according to the report, and their total cost tops $39.7 billion. More than 360 separate billion-dollar disasters have hit the United States since 1980 and they have resulted in damages and costs totaling about $2.6 trillion. $17.06 trillion: Total U.S. household debt rose by $16 billion to reach $17.06 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, according to the latest [Quarterly Report]( on Household Debt and Credit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Credit card balances rose by $45 billion to surpass $1 trillion for the first time and have now risen year-over-year for seven straight quarters. A separate Fed report showed that interest rates on credit cards recently hit a new high of 22.2%. The New York Fed report also showed that student loan balances fell by $35 billion to $1.57 trillion. Mortgage balances were largely unchanged at just over $12 trillion. “Despite the many headwinds American consumers have faced over the last year — higher interest rates, post-pandemic inflationary pressures, and the recent banking failures — there is little evidence of widespread financial distress for consumers,” New York Fed officials wrote in a [blog post](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Send your feedback to yrosenberg@thefiscaltimes.com. And please encourage your friends to [sign up here]( for their own copy of this newsletter. --------------------------------------------------------------- Fiscal News Roundup - [Biden Hails New Monument Near Grand Canyon as Investment in US]( – Bloomberg - [Border Security Floated as Way to Avoid Government Shutdown]( – Wall Street Journal - [US Chip Plans Hit Speed Bump With Key Jobs Taking Months to Fill]( – Bloomberg - [Canada’s Tech Tax Threat Risks Sinking Biden’s Global Tax Plan]( – Politico - [Manchin Hails Anniversary of Inflation Reduction Act After Battling With Biden Over Law]( – The Hill - [Inflation Is Ebbing, But Prices Are High and Americans Feel It]( – Bloomberg - [US Inflation Has Steadily Cooled. 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