White House Braces for Another Scorching Inflation Report

Plus, health insurers eye rate increases ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ [The Fisc](   By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey Good Tuesday evening. The House select committee investigating the January 6 insurrection held another public hearing today and sought to [connect]( former President Donald Trump to the extremist groups that attacked the Capitol. “The strategy is to blame people his advisers called ‘the crazies’ for what Donald Trump did,” Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) said. “This, of course, is nonsense. President Trump is a 76-year-old man. He is not an impressionable child. Just like everyone else in our country, he is responsible for his own actions and his own choices.” Cheney closed out the hearing by saying that Trump tried to call a witness in the committee’s investigation, adding that information about that outreach was passed on to the Justice Department and warning against witness tampering. Here’s what else is going on. Gas prices have been falling lately, but Wednesday's inflation report is expected to show another 40-year high. (Reuters) White House Braces for Another Scorching Inflation Report With inflation still running hot, economists expect to see another big number in the June consumer price index report, to be released by the Labor Department Wednesday morning. Economists [surveyed]( by Bloomberg estimate that inflation reached an 8.8% annual rate last month, higher than the 8.6% rate recorded in May and potentially the highest in more than 40 years. Higher food and fuel prices are prime culprits in the continuing inflationary surge, as gasoline topped $5 a gallon last month in many parts of the country. The White House on Tuesday tried to get ahead of the report, with National Economic Council Director Brian Deese and Council of Economic Advisers chair Cecilia Rouse issuing a memo that highlights the recent decline in gas prices. The inflation report “will largely not reflect the substantial declines in gas prices we’ve seen since the middle of June,” they wrote, noting that retail prices had fallen back below $5 a gallon and that wholesale prices indicate that further price declines are ahead. Separately, an administration official told reporters that the June numbers do not reflect current conditions. “That elevated price in June is both out of date to where the market is today and out of date to what American consumers, more importantly, are actually experiencing today,” the official said. Key measure cooling: In contrast to the main consumer price index (CPI), core CPI, which leaves out volatile food and fuel prices, is expected to drop from May’s 6% reading, with some estimates calling for a 5.7% rate in June. The Fed typically relies on core CPI to make policy decisions, but the likely decline is not expected to slow the Fed’s next round of interest rate hikes later this month. For one thing, global markets are still quite volatile amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, and inflation could spike again, especially with fuel prices. “We’re not completely out of the woods yet — we could also see a sharp reversal in the decline,” Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy wrote earlier this week. “There remains the risk of a spike in prices that could send us to new record levels in August, should any disruptions occur.” Quote of the Day: Manchin Reiterates His Priorities “I’ve told you all how many times? Inflation, inflation, inflation. Gas prices, gas prices, gas prices. Food prices, food prices, food prices. And energy. If you’re gonna have gas prices lower, produce energy. Period.” – Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), as quoted by [John Bresnahan]( of Punchbowl News on the budget reconciliation bill Democrats hope to finalize in the coming weeks. What do Manchin’s comments mean for the package of climate and energy programs he’s negotiating with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer? Your guess is as good as ours, but as we mentioned yesterday, Democrats reportedly hope to finalize those climate provisions this week. Numbers of the Day $1.7 Billion: Ukraine will get another $1.7 billion in aid from the United States and the World Bank to pay health care workers’ salaries and provide other essential services, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) [said]( Tuesday. “The additional resources provided by the United States, through the World Bank, will alleviate the acute budget deficit caused by Putin’s brutal war of aggression and ensure the Ukrainian government can continue operating and responding to critical needs,” the agency said. USAID has so far provided $4 billion in direct budgetary support to the Ukrainian government. About 10%: Roll Call’s Jessie Hellmann [reports]( that health insurers in the individual market have begun proposing some pretty hefty rate increases for 2023. Health insurers have filed rate proposals for next year in about a dozen states so far, with an average increase of about 10%, according to [acasignups.net](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Send your feedback to yrosenberg@thefiscaltimes.com. And please encourage your friends to [sign up here]( for their own copy of this newsletter. --------------------------------------------------------------- News - [Democrats Urge New $650 Billion IMF Aid on Ukraine War Hit]( – Bloomberg - [Manufacturers Push Back on Reconciliation, Urge Passage of China Bill]( – The Hill - [Manchin, Playing to the Home Crowd, Is Fighting Electric Cars to the End]( – New York Times - [Move Faster to Help Global Food Crisis, Senators Urge]( – Washington Post - [House Appropriators Back More Than $15 Billion for Cybersecurity]( – Roll Call - [Fresh US Inflation Peak to Keep Fed on Aggressive Rate Path]( – Bloomberg - [Consumer Inflation Is Expected to Have Been Even Hotter in June but It Could Be Peaking]( – CNBC - [Insurers Propose Premium Increases as Subsidy Cliff Looms]( – Roll Call - [Millions of Americans Regret the Great Resignation]( – Bloomberg - [US Cuts Gasoline-Demand Forecast as High Prices Weigh on Drivers]( – Bloomberg - [Mexico Agrees to Invest $1.5B in ‘Smart’ Border Technology]( – Associated Press - [U.S. Emissions Linked to Over $1.8 Trillion of Global Economic Losses, Study Says]( – Washington Post - [As BA.5 Spreads, the White House Warns That Covid Is Not Over]( – New York Times - [Biden Admin May Offer 2nd Covid Booster Shot to All Adults Due to BA.5 Subvariant]( – NBC News - [Pandemic Fueled Surge in Superbug Infections and Deaths, CDC Says]( – Washington Post - [FDA to Authorize Novavax's Covid-19 Vaccine]( – Politico - [Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia Is Killing Patients. Yet There Is a Simple Way to Stop It]( – Kaiser Health News - [Abortion Ruling Creating Health Care ‘Chaos,’ Senate Panel Warned]( – The Hill - [Half of G.O.P. Voters Ready to Leave Trump Behind, Poll Finds]( – New York Times Views and Analysis - [The Economic Outlook Might Not Be That Gloomy After All]( – Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post - [There’s No US Recession Until an Obscure Panel of ‘Eggheads’ Says It Is So]( – Steve Matthews, Bloomberg - [If Pols Can’t Make Inflation Better, They Should at Least Stop Making It Worse]( – Catherine Rampell, Washington Post - [The Humbug Economy]( – Paul Krugman, New York Times - [Joe Biden’s Bad News Problem]( – Paul Waldman, Washington Post - [Biden Should Know Better: No More Stimulus]( – Karl W. Smith, Bloomberg - [How Much Covid Relief Was Stolen? No One Really Knows]( – Bloomberg Editors - [Will Republicans Cut Off Ukraine?]( – Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One - [What It Would Take for Democrats to Dump Biden]( – Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg - [Republicans Won’t Say What They’re for. But It’s Not Hard to Figure Out]( – Katrina vanden Heuvel, Washington Post Copyright © 2022 The Fiscal Times, All rights reserved. You are receiving this newsletter because you subscribed at our website or through Facebook. The Fiscal Times, 399 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10022, United States Want to change how you receive these emails? [Update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe](