Will Republicans Defy Trump on His National Emergency?

Plus, Democrats call for an end to Medicaid work requirements By Yuval Rosenberg How Many Republicans Will Defy Trump on His Emergency Declaration? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she would move swiftly to block President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency on the southern border, and she is. The House will vote Tuesday on a disapproval resolution to reject Trump’s declaration and his attempt to redirect taxpayer money for construction of a border wall, Pelosi [said Friday]( on a conference call with reporters. She [described]( the measure as defending Congress’s “exclusive power of the purse.” The measure was filed on Friday by Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), who said he had lined up at least 226 cosponsors for the bill, more than enough to ensure passage. That group includes one Republican, conservative Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, but Castro and Pelosi said they will be looking to gather more GOP support next week. "I know they care about the Constitution of the United States; I know they care about the separation of powers and the coequal nature of the branches of government," Pelosi said, according to [The Hill](. "What's really important is how they will vote on Tuesday." Democrats are unlikely to find much backing from the other side of the aisle, though. Few House Republicans are likely to defy Trump, even as some have expressed unease with his executive action or concern that it might affect money slated for their districts, The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Scott Wong [report](. The emergency declaration is popular with Republican voters, according to polls, and voting to block the president on his border plan could invite a primary challenge in 2020. On the Senate side, where the GOP holds a 53-to-47 majority, Democrats, assuming no defections, would need four Republicans to join them for the measure to pass. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) [said]( this week that she will vote for a clean resolution, and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) predicted Friday on [Fox News]( that a “handful” of Republican senators would support it, though he said he would “absolutely not.” Trump has promised to veto the bill if it is sent to his desk, and Graham predicted that there would not be enough GOP support to reach the required two-thirds majority to override a veto. Pelosi on Friday declined to say whether House Democrats will also be filing their own lawsuit or joining outside suits in an effort to block Trump’s declaration. "That remains to be seen," she [said](. "But there will be a challenge." Quote of the Day “Whether you support the border wall or oppose it, you should be deeply troubled by the president’s intent to obtain it through a plainly unconstitutional abuse of power. … The time for silent disagreement is over. You must speak out.” – Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), in an “open letter” to Republicans published in [The Washington Post]( Democrats Call for End to Medicaid Work Requirements Top Congressional Democrats this week called on the Trump administration to stop allowing states to implement work requirements for Medicaid, citing the thousands of Arkansas residents who have lost coverage under the policy. In a [letter]( to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon and Rep. Frank Pallone of New Jersey say the administration has shown “shocking disregard of Congressional intent” in approving state waiver requests to place restrictions like work requirements on Medicaid eligibility. They also charge that the administration has failed to properly track the impact of such policies. States can apply for waivers from the Department of Health and Human Services that enable them to still receive federal funds when veering from the Affordable Care Act’s rules for Medicaid expansion. Fifteen states have applied for waivers to impose work requirements on Medicaid recipients, according to [CNN]( and eight have had their requests approved. Arkansas in June 2018 became the first state to implement work requirements, forcing beneficiaries to work, look for work, volunteer or go to school 80 hours a month to be eligible for Medicaid. But the state’s implementation and online reporting system was [problematic]( and by mid-January of this year, more than 18,000 beneficiaries had lost coverage for failing to comply with the requirements, according to the [Arkansas Department of Health and Human Services](. Critics had warned that the Trump administration’s willingness to approve work requirements and the associated [red tape]( threatened to [reduce]( the number of low-income people covered and would take coverage away from some who were already working or otherwise should be eligible. The Trump administration says that the requirements help people find jobs and rise out of poverty. “We are looking closely at the people that have left the program to understand the reasons why they have left the program, and I think that’s going to give us a lot of lessons learned,” Seema Verma, the head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said of the Arkansas program in November. White House Stops Short of Endorsing Florida Drug Importation Proposal We [told you yesterday]( that Florida Gov. Jim DeSantis, a Republican, had proposed importing cheaper prescription drugs into his state from Canada and said that President Trump supports the idea. But the White House on Friday was noncommittal about the plan. Deputy White House Press Secretary Judd Deere said in a statement that the president “has instructed his staff to meet with the governor to learn more details about what he is considering,” according to [The Hill](. “The Administration also looks forward to educating Governor DeSantis on the many policy options the Trump Administration has proposed to reduce costly drug prices for American families,” Deere added. Now That 2019 Funding Is Set, 2020 Budget Fights Ahead President Trump’s signing last Friday of the bipartisan spending and border security deal passed by Congress means that the federal government is fully funded for fiscal 2019 — and that fights over the fiscal 2020 budget are just around the corner. One key question will be whether, or by how much, to once again lift the discretionary spending caps imposed under the 2011 Budget Control Act. As part of a two-year budget deal, Congress raised the spending limits for 2018 and 2019 by about $150 billion a year. Given those increases, the return of the caps for 2020 would mean a decrease in discretionary spending of $126 billion, or 10 percent, from one year to the next, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The CRFB, in a paper released this week, said that the best approach for Congress “would be to establish a new set of caps over the next decade to smooth the transition from current levels of spending to ones that policymakers could more easily pay for. Lawmakers should fully offset the cost of these cap adjustments with mandatory spending reductions and/or revenue increases.” More than a few lawmakers are bound to disagree. The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing on the Budget Control Act and a review of cap-adjusted spending on Wednesday, February 27. Your Prize for Making It Through the Week The Oscars are on Sunday night. If you’re like us and less than excited to see who wins this year, maybe there’s another reason to watch. The show, going without a host for the first time in 30 years, “very well may be a train wreck this year,” [Quartz’s Adam Epstein says](. And who wouldn’t want to watch that? To get you ready, here’s a look at the [10 worst Oscar Best Picture winners](. Send your Oscar picks, story tips and feedback to yrosenberg@thefiscaltimes.com. And follow us on Twitter: [@yuvalrosenberg]( [@mdrainey]( and [@TheFiscalTimes](. 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