Trump Digs In for a Shutdown

Plus - Is Obamacare dead? Far from it By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey Trump, Congress Dig In for a Shutdown Neither side in the battle over President Trump’s border wall appears to be budging, raising the odds of a partial government shutdown come Friday night. “Spending discussions have stalled, with no talks between Trump and Democrats since Tuesday” of last week, Bloomberg’s Justin Sink and Erik Wasson [reported]( midday Monday. The House is not expected to return from its long weekend until Wednesday, and lawmakers reportedly have no plans for how to proceed once they’re back. Trump reaffirmed his hardline stance on the border wall with a [tweet]( Monday: Along the same lines, White House senior adviser Stephen Miller appeared on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday, [saying]( the Trump administration would do “whatever is necessary to build the border wall,” including a partial shutdown of the government: “If it comes to it, absolutely. This is a very fundamental issue.” Miller added, “At stake is the question of whether or not the United States remains a sovereign country.” On the other side of the battle, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) reaffirmed his position over the weekend, telling Chuck Todd of NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Trump is “not going to get the wall in any form.” One complicating factor in the conflict is that so many lawmakers have left Washington and may not be coming back. “House Republican leaders are … confronting a more mundane and awkward problem,” The New York Times’ Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Emily Cochrane [wrote](. “Their vanquished and retiring members are sick and tired of Washington and don’t want to show up anymore to vote.” The GOP’s reduced ranks in Congress makes it even less likely that Trump will be able to get the funding he wants. Planning begins: With no sign of a resolution, officials are beginning to plan for a shutdown, which would affect nine federal departments – the departments of Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, State, Interior, Agriculture, Treasury, Commerce, Homeland Security and Justice – and some independent agencies, along with roughly 40 percent of the federal civilian workforce. The Office of Management and Budget held a conference call on Friday with agency officials to prepare for a potential lapse in funding. And the Hill’s Niv Elis [reports]( that Democrats are now preparing for a “prolonged” shutdown that could last until the new Congress is sworn in on January 3. Who gets the blame: One thing is clear, though: the majority of Americans don’t want to see a shutdown. A new [poll]( from USA Today and Suffolk University found that 54 percent of respondents opposed a shutdown if Congress refuses to provide the money Trump is demanding for the border wall, compared to 29 percent who said they would support it. And who would get the blame? About 43 percent of respondents said they’d point the finger at Trump and the Republicans, while 24 percent said they’d blame Democrats and 30 percent said they’d blame both. 3 Key Questions About the Obamacare Ruling The fate of Obamacare may once again wind up before the Supreme Court now that a federal judge in Texas has ruled that the law is unconstitutional. U.S. District Court Judge Reed O'Connor ruled on Friday that the law's individual mandate is unconstitutional. The Supreme Court had upheld the legality of the mandate in 2012, ruling that it fell under Congress’ power to impose taxes. But as part of the Republican tax law passed last year, Congress eliminated the fine for not complying with the mandate. Without that penalty, O’Connor ruled, the mandate is no longer a tax and thus violates the Constitution — and, because the mandate cannot be separated from the rest of Obamacare, the judge said, the entire law is also invalid. The [controversial ruling]( in the case, brought by 20 Republican-led states, means that debate over the law will once again be front and center in the nation’s capital — and across the country — as a new Congress is sworn in come January. Here’s a rundown of what happens next and what’s at stake: Is Obamacare dead? No, far from it. The judge did not grant an injunction blocking the Affordable Care Act from being in effect. His ruling is sure to be appealed, first to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans and potentially to the Supreme Court, and the White House said the law will remain in place as the appeal process plays out. [Many legal analysts]( and lawmakers in both parties say the judge’s sweeping decision is likely to be overturned, with some dismissing the decision as a blatant example of [partisan judicial activism]( resulting from a [weaponized court system](. “Congress has explicitly said that it thinks the ACA can and should exist even without a federal individual mandate; it voted to do precisely that last year,” Bloomberg’s Max Nisen [noted](. “That seems like the precedent that should be looked to. Instead, this judge chose to rely on a creative interpretation of congressional intent when it first passed the law in 2010.” Democratic leaders said they will call for a vote to intervene in the case once the new Congress convenes. "A lot of this depends on congressional intent. And if a majority of the House and a majority of the Senate say that this case should be overturned, it'll have a tremendous effect on the appeal," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” What happens if the ruling is upheld? It could create chaos across the U.S. health care system — “the consequences would be disastrous,” [The Economist said](. “When the Supreme Court considered the law in 2012, Obamacare was not yet in effect. Today, it is in full swing. Required coverage of people with pre-existing conditions would disappear. Young adults counting on remaining on their parents’ insurance until the age of 26 would be suddenly booted into uninsured status.” Nearly 12 million people got health care coverage through the ACA exchanges last year, and another 15 million people have gained coverage through the law’s Medicaid expansion. Those gains could all be reversed. Will Republicans come to rue this ruling? O’Connor’s decision “illustrated the fruits — and possible perils — of [Republicans’] long-running campaign, stepped up in the Trump era, to remake the judiciary through the confirmation of dozens of conservative judges, including two appointees to the Supreme Court,” The New York Times’ Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Robert Pear and Abby Goodnough said. President Trump celebrated the Texas decision, calling it “Great news for America!” But other Republicans were [far more reserved]( faced with the [problematic prospect]( of a renewed Obamacare fight after the midterm election drubbing their party just took from voters worried about health-care costs and protections for Americans with pre-existing conditions. Recent polls have found that the Affordable Care Act has grown more popular with Americans, with about half or slightly more now favoring the law. Support for key elements of Obamacare, like its protections for those with pre-existing protections, is significantly higher. In that context, the court ruling “spells bad news for Republicans, by allowing Democrats to replay a potent health care message that helped them flip 40 House seats: that the GOP remains hellbent on gutting Obamacare and rolling back protections for pre-existing conditions,” Politico’s Paul Demko and Adam Cancryn [wrote](. Some Republicans voiced optimism that the ruling would open the door for cooperation between Democrats and Republicans to fix the health care law, but with the 2020 election cycle already under way, ramped up political bickering may be more likely than a bipartisan path forward. Spread the word! Tell your friends they can [sign up here]( to get their own copy of this newsletter. Send your tips and feedback to yrosenberg@thefiscaltimes.com. Or connect with us on Twitter: [@yuvalrosenberg]( [@mdrainey]( and [@TheFiscalTimes](. Lots Still to Do in Washington In addition to the seven outstanding appropriations bills that need attention this week ahead of a potential shutdown, Congress is facing a remarkably packed schedule in the final week before Christmas. Lawmakers still have numerous big-ticket items on their plates, including: - Tax extenders - Criminal justice reform - Extension of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program - Extended benefits for some Vietnam-era veterans - Reauthorization of the National Flood Insurance Program. That’s a lot to accomplish in just a few days, although Congress can move quickly once lawmakers start making some deals. For [full details]( see Roll Call’s Kellie Mejdrich, who warns that as far as legislation is concerned, we are facing “hell week” on Capitol Hill. The Divorce Rush Divorce lawyers are keeping plenty busy as the year winds down, thanks in part to the Republican tax bill. The Hill’s Naomi Jagoda explains: “The 2017 GOP tax overhaul eliminates the deduction for alimony payments in divorce agreements entered into after Dec. 31, 2018. That means beginning next month, tax savings for many divorcing couples will be smaller than they are now.” Divorce lawyers and financial planners told Jagoda they’ve seen a big uptick in the number of couples attempting to finalize their splits “It is a complete madhouse,” said Jacqueline Newman of Berkman Bottger Newman & Rodd in New York. [Get all of the juicy details at The Hill](. News - [Obama Rips GOP after the Affordable Care Act Ruled Unconstitutional]( – Washington Post - [House Democrats Plan to Join Obamacare Legal Fight, Source Says]( – Bloomberg - [Trump Says He Would Work with Democrats on 'Great' Replacement if Obamacare Is Scrapped]( – Politico - [Health-Care Stocks Plunge After Federal Judge Rules Obamacare Unconstitutional]( – CNBC - [Wealthy Race to Slash Taxes as Trump’s Cuts Offer New Loopholes]( – Bloomberg - [A Holy Mess: Churches, Other Nonprofits Confront Parking Tax]( – Politico - [Companies Who Donated to Republicans Made Sure the Tax Cuts Looked Helpful for Workers]( – Vox - [Pentagon Has Sent Home Nearly 3K Active-Duty Border Troops]( – The Hill - [Former Fed Chairman Blasts McKinsey and Hedge Fund Billionaires]( – Barron’s - [Want to Run an Agency? It Helps to Know Mitch McConnell]( – Politico Views and Analysis - [Why the Coming Shutdown May Be a Long One]( – Bill Scher, RealClear Politics - [Are Republicans Crazy Enough to Kill Obamacare Like This?]( – Michael Tomasky, Daily Beast - [Texas Obamacare Blunder]( – Wall Street Journal Editorial Board (paywall) - [What the Lawless Obamacare Ruling Means]( – Jonathan H. Adler and Abbe R. Gluck, New York Times - [Affordable Care Act's 'Tortured' History Catches Up with It. Does It Have a Future?]( – Jonathan Turley, USA Today - [There Is Another Pre-Existing Conditions Problem]( for Seniors]( – Drew Altman, Axios - [The 3 Decisions That Will Shape Medicare-for-All]( – Ezra Klein, Vox - [This Little Tweak to Social Security Could Keep Elderly People Out of Poverty]( – Kimberly Blanton, MarketWatch - [America Is Borrowing like Crazy. Don't Worry]( – Ryan Cooper, The Week - [Pentagon Needs Better System to Track Fraudulent Spending]( – Ross Marchand and Mandy Smithberger, Defense One Copyright © 2018 The Fiscal Times, All rights reserved. You are receiving this newsletter because you subscribed at our website, thefiscaltimes.com, or through Facebook. Our mailing address is: The Fiscal Times 399 Park AvenueNew York, NY 10022 [Add us to your address book]( If someone has forwarded this email to you, consider signing up for The Fiscal Times emails on our [website](. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](