Shutdown Update: Will GOP Plan Win Enough Votes?

By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey Republicans Have a Plan to Prevent a Shutdown. Can They Pass It? With the clock ticking to avoid a government shutdown on Saturday, House Republicans are pushing a stopgap measure that would keep the lights on for four more weeks and buy time for contentious negotiations on immigration and federal funding to continue. The bill would continue federal funding at current levels through February 16, extend the Children’s Health Insurance Program for six years, delay the implementation of a few Obamacare taxes for a year or two and allow the Defense Department to fund missile defense enhancements. But as lawmakers look to maximize their leverage in the two days before the shutdown deadline, it’s not clear yet whether the new plan will have enough support from Republicans or Democrats to clear the House and Senate. House Republicans were looking to line up backing on Wednesday before a possible vote on Thursday, but House Speaker Paul Ryan finds himself in a spot that would look familiar to former Speaker John Boehner: stuck deciding whether to find the votes he needs from the right flank of his own party or Democrats pursuing their own agenda. The CHIP Bargaining Chip Some Democrats have vowed to oppose any spending bill that doesn’t include protection for immigrants who came to the United States illegally as children. But it could be difficult — and politically perilous — for them to vote against funding health care for nearly 9 million children. Democrats have been pushing for CHIP funding for months, though many would prefer a 10-year extension, especially in light of a recent CBO report that says a 10-year term would actually save the government money. Republicans are betting that Democrats will see CHIP funding as attractive enough to vote for another short-term deal. And they’re daring Democrats to vote no. "I find it difficult to believe that my Democratic colleagues would want to shut down the government for American citizens and vote down a six-year reauthorization of health insurance for American children all over illegal immigration," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell [said](. Squeezed from the Right But as they look to exert some pressure on Democrats, Republicans leaders are once again being squeezed by the far right wing of their own party. Members of the House Freedom Caucus are pushing for a floor vote on a conservative immigration bill in exchange for backing the short-term funding measure, [according to The Hill](. “If some Freedom Caucus members band together with enough defense hawks, they could tank GOP leadership’s strategy to avert a government shutdown, though it’s unclear whether there are enough of them willing to do so,” The Hill’s Melanie Zanona writes. Adding to the uncertainty, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said Wednesday that he won’t support another short-term spending bill, meaning that Republicans will need at least 10 Democratic votes for the funding bill to pass in the Senate. Eighteen Senate Democrats voted for a current continuing resolution last month, and 10 Senate Democrats are up for re-election this year in states that President Trump won in 2016. The bottom line: We’re still closer to a shutdown than we have been at any point since 2013, but if Ryan can round up 218 votes in the House, it’s probably safe to mark February 16 on your calendar as the next big deadline. We'll likely find out Thursday. [Share]( [Tweet]( [Forward]( Tweet of the Day From [Bloomberg reporter Steven Dennis]( Lawyers to Congress: It’s Time to Fund the IRS Adequately The American Bar Association sent a [letter]( to key congressional leaders Tuesday expressing concerns about funding for the Internal Revenue Service. Karen Hawkins, chair of the ABA’s tax section, said “we continue to be concerned that the Service’s widely acknowledged and continuing budgetary and resource constraints have eroded its capacity to accomplish its core responsibilities as the nation’s tax administrator and collector.” As a result, Americans are losing faith in both the IRS and the tax system, which “endangers our federal government’s ability to properly fund itself,” Hawkins wrote. Additionally, the many new rules in the tax code mean that “appropriate and adequate funding” is more important than ever. Hawkins reminded lawmakers that IRS funding is one of the few things in government that clearly pays for itself: “We recognize the intense budgetary pressures that our federal government faces. Nonetheless, providing appropriate funding to the Service is one of the few governmental expenditures that provides both an immediate return on investment – each dollar spent on enforcement by IRS personnel produces multiple dollars of additional money in tax collections – and a long-term benefit to the effectiveness and credibility of our tax system.” How Much Tax Will US Companies Pay on Foreign Profits? In the wake of the Republican tax overhaul, American multinationals face a one-time levy on the roughly $2.5 trillion in profits currently held offshore, and Congress expects to collect about $339 billion from the tax over the next 10 years. The profits are concentrated among a relatively small group of companies and sectors, with tech and health care businesses accounting for more than half the total. Apple is sitting on the largest cash pile, estimated at $252 billion, generating a tax liability of roughly $39 billion. The Wall Street Journal has published a nifty interactive graphic that lets you explore how the tax will affect specific companies and sectors. Click [here]( to dive in (paywall). Send Us Your Tips and Feedback: Email Yuval Rosenberg at yrosenberg@thefiscaltimes.com. Follow us on Twitter [@yuvalrosenberg]( and [@TheFiscalTimes](. News - [Shutdown Would Backfire on GOP, Republicans Say]( – Politico - [Paul Ryan Has the Toughest Job in Washington: Avoiding a Government Shutdown]( – Time - [Republicans Appear Likely to Take the Blame for a Government Shutdown]( – The Week - [Social Security Benefits? Passport? What the Government Shutdown Would Mean]( – USA Today - [McConnell: Unclear What Trump Wants in a DACA Deal]( – CNN - [Millions Bought Insurance to Cover Retirement Health Costs. Now They Face an Awful Choice]( – WSJ - [Apple Plans to Pay $38 Billion in Repatriation Taxes]( – Reuters - [Goldman Shares Take Hit After Bank Says Tax Break Will Be Less Than Hoped]( – CNBC - [Walmart Meets Tax Reform]( – Axios - [GOP Tax Plan Fails to Crack a Majority in New Poll]( – Politico - [Some Republicans Blame Medicaid for Opioid Epidemic]( – Washington Post - [Report: US Democracy Has ‘Sharpest One-Year Drop’ in 40 years]( – Axios Views - [Shutdowns Are for Losers]( – Bill Scher, Politico - [There Is a Roughly 0% Chance Republicans Won’t be Blamed for a Government Shutdown]( – Chris Cillizza, CNN - [Health Insurance for Kids Has Officially Become a Political Bargaining Chip]( – Sarah Kliff, Vox - [The Trump Administration Puts Bull's Eye On the Poor]( – John Cassidy, The New Yorker - [IRS Hired Bill Collectors to Collect Back Taxes, Got Ripped Off]( – Michael Hiltzik, Los Angeles Times - [Only the GOP Can Prevent a Government Shutdown]( – Boston Globe - [Republicans Are This Close to Shooting Themselves in the Foot]( – Alex Shephard, New Republic - [Walmart, Carrier Firings Highlight Glaring Flaw of New Tax Bill]( – The Hill - [The Millionaire Class Is Booming]( – Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post - [No, the US Did Not Spend $43 Million on a Gas Station in Afghanistan]( – Jeff Goodson, The Hill Copyright © 2018 The Fiscal Times, All rights reserved. You are receiving this newsletter because you subscribed at our website, thefiscaltimes.com. Our mailing address is: The Fiscal Times 712 Fifth AvenueNew York, NY 10019 [Add us to your address book](//thefiscaltimes.us1.list-manage.com/vcard?u=40d2c5373681f5cd830b6d823&id=714147a9cf) If someone has forwarded this email to you, consider signing up for The Fiscal Times emails on our [website](. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](