Trump Pushes Republicans to ‘Close It Down’ as Shutdown Looms

Plus: Kamala Harris, deficit hawk? ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ [The Fisc](   By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey Tonight’s the night we’ve been waiting for, as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off in what could be their only debate before the November election. The debate, hosted by ABC News at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, will be Harris’s first and Trump’s seventh in a presidential general election. And the conventional wisdom is that she has more at risk tonight as the lesser-known candidate — and more opportunity to define herself for voters and score points against her opponent. Trump at a rally in Wisconsin this week (Reuters) As Shutdown Looms, Trump Pushes Republicans to ‘Close It Down’ A stopgap spending bill that would fund the government for the first six months of the new fiscal year starting on October 1 narrowly cleared a key procedural hurdle Tuesday, with the rule for the bill passing the House in a 209-to-206 vote. The fate of the legislation is uncertain, however, amid stiff opposition from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Johnson could still be headed for an embarrassing defeat, even as former President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged Republicans to allow the government to shut down if they can’t pass a controversial measure promoted by GOP hardliners that would require proof of citizenship for people registering to vote. Congressional Democrats and the White House have vowed to oppose the House bill, noting that it is already illegal for noncitizens to vote in federal races, and some Republicans have expressed concerns about the CR, as well. Two Republicans — Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona and Matt Rosendale of Montana — joined all Democrats in voting against the rule for the bill, and more members of the House GOP have said they will join the opposition when the bill comes up for final passage. Still, most House Republicans say the voting amendment is essential. “This is a fight worth having,” Johnson told reporters at a press conference ahead of the procedural vote. “I believe we can fund the government responsibly and I believe that we can do right by the American people and ensure the security of our elections.” Defending the amendment, Johnson said that “thousands” of illegal voters are currently registered in states including Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia, though he did not provide any evidence to back up the claim. (In May, after making a similar claim, Johnson said the numbers are a matter of gut feelings rather than hard data. “We all know, intuitively, that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections,” he [said](. “But it’s not been something that is easily provable. We don’t have that number.”) Trump expressed support for the Johnson-led effort on Tuesday, posting on his social media platform that Republicans should block government funding if they can’t pass the voting measure. “If Republicans in the House, and Senate, don’t get absolute assurances on Election Security, THEY SHOULD, IN NO WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM, GO FORWARD WITH A CONTINUING RESOLUTION ON THE BUDGET,” Trump wrote. The former president falsely accused Democrats of trying to “’STUFF’ VOTER REGISTRATIONS WITH ILLEGAL ALIENS,” and called on the House GOP to “CLOSE IT DOWN!!!” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday that Republicans appear to be flirting once again with a government shutdown. “Instead of pursuing bipartisanship, Speaker Johnson is yet again — yet again — wasting time caving to the hard right, despite his razor-thin majority,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. “Hasn’t he learned?” What happens next: Johnson plans to hold a floor vote on the bill on Wednesday. At least [10 House Republicans]( have said they will vote against it, which should be enough to defeat the bill. Even if it passes the House, it has no chance in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Johnson has not discussed how he plans to proceed if the bill fails, though an eventual vote on a “clean” funding bill without amendments seems likely. That could upset Johnson’s supporters on the right, however, raising the risk of a confrontation over the issue that could result in a government shutdown. Deficit Totals $1.9 Trillion in First 1 Months of 2024 The federal budget deficit was $1.9 trillion in the first 11 months of the 2024 fiscal year, according to an [initial estimate]( released by the Congressional Budget Office on Tuesday. The total includes a $381 billion deficit recorded in the month of August. The cumulative deficit was $373 billion larger than the deficit recorded in the first 11 months of the 2023 fiscal year. Revenues were $420 billion (11%) higher this year, while outlays were $793 billion (14%) higher. The CBO estimates that the deficit for the full 2024 fiscal year will come to $1.9 trillion. Once calendar effects are taken into account, that total would be about $2.0 trillion. In the 2023 fiscal year, the deficit came to $1.7 trillion. That total was affected by the accounting for a student loan forgiveness program that never took effect; with adjustment, the full-year deficit came to about $2.0 trillion. Should Kamala Harris Knock Trump Over the National Debt? As Vice President Kamala Harris seeks to define herself for voters and differentiate herself from former President Donald Trump — and from President Joe Biden, too, for that matter — Politico’s [Morning Money author Sam Sutton]( asks whether Harris can use the national debt as a wedge issue. Sutton notes that the Harris campaign has been “teeing up attacks to go after the former president over how his policies would add trillions to the national debt and create a “debt explosion that would be put squarely on the backs of the middle class.” The Penn Wharton Budget Model [projects]( that Harris’s tax and spending plans would add $1.2 trillion to primary deficits over a decade, or $2 trillion including economic feedback effects. It [says]( that Trump’s policies would run up primary deficits to the tune of $5.8 trillion, or $4.1 trillion when factoring in dynamic effects. That could open up an avenue of attack for Harris — one that could have some appeal to a potentially persuadable constituency. “Polls taken by the Democratic polling firm Blueprint found evidence that a deficit hawk message could resonate with Republicans who supported former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley during the primary,” Sutton reports. “Those voters are [much more likely to blame Trump-era tax cuts]( for driving up the national debt.” But Sutton notes that Harris has to weigh the possibility of appealing to any fiscally conservative Republicans against the risk that an embrace of deficit hawkery might turn off some of her supporters. “Any policy adjustment that Harris makes to placate moderate or hard-right Republicans could muddle her appeal to the party’s base,” he writes. To highlight the risk, he points to an [analysis]( published just last week by David Stein, a fellow at the liberal Roosevelt Institute think tank. The 28-page report traces the history of deficit politics in recent decades and argues that Democrats must ditch what Stein describes as “a four-decade paradigm that prioritized deficit reduction and monetary policy as the main tools of economic management, and fiscal discipline as an essential metric of good economic policy.” Stein argues, and many Democrats would undoubtedly agree, that Democrats needs to move beyond deficit hawkery if they are to tackle challenges such as climate change. [Read more at Politico.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Send your feedback to yrosenberg@thefiscaltimes.com. And please encourage your friends to [sign up here]( for their own copy of this newsletter. --------------------------------------------------------------- Fiscal News Roundup - [Johnson’s Government Funding Bill Advances Despite GOP Defections]( – Washington Post - [Johnson Forges Ahead on Spending Plan as GOP Support Crumbles]( – Politico - [Republicans Charge Toward Funding Vote That Appears Destined to Fail]( – The Hill - [Johnson’s Spending Plan Falters, Facing Resistance From Both Parties]( – New York Times - [Trump Backs Mike Johnson Into a Corner on Shutdown]( – Axios - [Senate Dems Balk at Johnson's Spending Bill, but Wait to Release Their Own Plan]( – Politico - [Schumer: ‘Bad Case of Groundhog Day’ Could Lead to Shutdown]( – The Hill - [Presidential Debate Crib Sheet: U.S. Economy Numbers to Know]( – CNBC - [Poll: Economy and Inflation Top Abortion as Issues Most Important to Voters]( – The Hill - [Americans’ Inflation-Adjusted Incomes Rebounded to Pre-Pandemic Levels Last Year]( – Associated Press - [Democrats Press Oil Executives on Trump's $1 Billion Ask]( – Politico - [Harris Economic Plan Focuses on Prices, a Key Vulnerability]( – New York Times - [For Trump, Tariffs Are the Solution to Almost Any Problem]( – New York Times - [Donald Trump’s Unconventional Ground Game Is Making Republicans Nervous]( – Semafor Views and Analysis - [A Clear Choice on the Issue Voters Care About Most]( – New York Times Editorial Board - [Threatening a Shutdown, Trump Reminds Voters What His First Term Was Really Like]( – Washington Post Editorial Board - [Trump Is Making Promises That Many Economists Call Unrealistic]( – Jeanna Smialek and Jim Tankersley, New York Times - [The GOP Is Playing Chicken at the Worst Possible Time (for the GOP)]( – Timothy Noah, New Republic - [Elon Musk, Government Efficiency Expert? That Is One Really Bad Idea]( – Adam Lashinsky, Washington Post - [The Mirage of $2 Gas]( – Paul Krugman, New York Times - [Donald Trump on the Dollar, in His Own Words]( – Paul Krugman, New York Times - [Trump Makes No Sense and Is Full of Meaning]( – Jamelle Bouie, New York Times - [Young Voters Deserve Answers on the National Debt]( – Jeremy Etelson, The Hill Copyright © 2024 The Fiscal Times, All rights reserved. You are receiving this newsletter because you subscribed at our website or through Facebook. The Fiscal Times, 399 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10022, United States Want to change how you receive these emails? [Update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe](