The overlooked impact of Arab American voters

+ state politicos overturning ballot initiatives US Edition - Today's top story: An overlooked and undercounted group of Arab American and Muslim voters may have outsized impact on 2024 presidential election [View in browser]( US Edition | 11 January 2024 [The Conversation] [The Conversation]( As a social scientist, Youssef Chouhoud specializes in statistical analysis and research on how ethnicity plays a role in U.S. elections. Even he admits that analyzing the numerically small and overlooked group of Arab American voters requires “a bit of analytic gymnastics.” But the outcome of the 2024 presidential election may come down to results in a few swing states where Middle Eastern and Muslim Americans are concentrated. Michigan is one of them, and Arab Americans there have voted Democratic in presidential elections for the past 20 years. Their vote helped give President Joe Biden a 154,000-vote margin of victory over Donald Trump in 2020. That might change in 2024. The Biden administration’s support of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s continued bombardment of Gaza after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack has caused some [Arab American leaders to urge their followers to “abandon” Biden](. The fear among Democrats is that they may stay home on Election Day. “Decreased turnout among Middle Eastern, North African and Muslim Americans alone would be enough to erase Biden’s 2020 margins of victory in Arizona – 10,457 votes – and nearly do the same in Georgia, where Biden won by 12,670 votes,” Chouhoud writes. Howard Manly Race + Equity Editor People demonstrate in support of Palestinians on Oct. 14, 2023, in Dearborn, Mich. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images [An overlooked and undercounted group of Arab American and Muslim voters may have outsized impact on 2024 presidential election]( Youssef Chouhoud, Christopher Newport University Though Arab Americans voted overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, polling suggests that support has eroded since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack against Israel. Supporters of Issue 1, which would codify reproductive rights, including abortion, in the Ohio Constitution, cheer election results on Nov. 7, 2023. Andrew Spear/Getty Images [Voters don’t always have final say – state legislatures and governors are increasingly undermining ballot measures that win]( Anne Whitesell, Miami University Election year 2024 will see citizen initiatives on the ballot across the country, some focused on abortion rights. But there’s a growing trend of lawmakers altering initiatives after they have passed. Hezbollah commander Wissam al-Tawil, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Hezbollah Military Media, via AP [Why both Israel and Hezbollah are eager to avoid tit-for-tat attacks escalating into full-blown war]( Asher Kaufman, University of Notre Dame Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in tit-for-tat attacks, but a diplomatic path still exists to avoid an escalation. [Republicans are pushing for drastic asylum changes – an immigration law scholar breaks down the proposal]( Jean Lantz Reisz, University of Southern California A GOP proposal would make it nearly impossible for most migrants now crossing the US border to gain asylum and the right to remain in the country. [Trump’s arguments for immunity not as hopeless as some claim]( Ofer Raban, University of Oregon The former president has raised several legal arguments that do not yet have clear answers. A constitutional scholar says they’re questions worth asking. [A Supreme Court ruling on fishing for herring could sharply curb federal regulatory power]( Robin Kundis Craig, University of Southern California An important but controversial legal doctrine, known as Chevron deference, is at issue in two fishing cases. The outcome could affect many sectors across the nation. [2 colonists had similar identities – but one felt compelled to remain loyal, the other to rebel]( Abby Chandler, UMass Lowell What might appear to be common values about shared political and cultural identities can at times serve not as a bridge joining people together but a wedge driving them apart. - [Trump’s Iowa political organizing this year is nothing like his scattershot 2016 campaign]( Barbara A. Trish, Grinnell College Donald Trump’s Iowa caucus campaign is very nuts-and-bolts. That may be a recognition that celebrity will only take him so far and attention to traditional political tools might be in his interest. - [US Supreme Court decision on Trump-Colorado ballot case ‘monumental’ for democracy itself, not just 2024 presidential election]( Derek T. Muller, University of Notre Dame The US Supreme Court faces a case with huge repercussions for the 2024 presidential election – and American democracy. An election law scholar explains why. - [South Africa’s genocide case against Israel: expert sets out what to expect from the International Court of Justice]( Magnus Killander, University of Pretoria There is precedent showing the ICJ may grant provisional measures within a month or two of the hearing, preventing Israel from causing further harm in Gaza. - [Taiwanese election may determine whether Beijing opts to force the issue of reunification]( Meredith Oyen, University of Maryland, Baltimore County A candidate from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party looks set to win the presidency despite Beijing’s pressure and rhetoric. - [Martin Luther King Jr.’s moral stance against the Vietnam War offers lessons on how to fight for peace in the Middle East]( Hajar Yazdiha, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. knew the political consequences of speaking out against the Vietnam War − and he did it anyway. Like this newsletter? 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