Why national polls on abortion can be misleading

+ languages and political conflicts; educators struggle with traumatic events US Edition - Today's top story: Most people support abortion staying legal, but that may not matter in making law [View in browser]( US Edition | 2 June 2022 [The Conversation]( I don’t normally trot out overused phrases in my writing, but there’s one that’s so persistently right that I’m going to use it today: All politics is local. That phrase, closely associated with former speaker of the House Tip O'Neill (though not likely invented by him), fits my understanding of politics in the U.S. I grew up in the journalism business covering state and local politics, and I’ve seen how what matters to lawmakers is what their constituents think – and even more precisely in these hyperpartisan times, what the subset of constituents who voted for them think. That’s why I was particularly pleased to see a story this week that was commissioned by editor Amy Lieberman and written by political scientist Tarah Williams. With the Supreme Court ruling soon on a case that could spell the end of Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to get an abortion, Williams says that such a decision could fly in the face of public opinion: “Most Americans do not support overturning Roe v. Wade, and have held this opinion for some time." But that opinion, measured in national polling, [doesn’t matter nearly as much in politics as you might think](, Williams says. Why? Regardless of what national polls say, members of Congress tend to vote for or against laws in line with their district’s preferences. Her point is similar to the conclusion of political scientists Monika McDermott and David Jones [in a story last week about Americans’ views on gun control](, which explains why national surveys of public opinion aren’t necessarily useful guides to what politicians will do. “I believe that while general national opinion polling on abortion is important, too much emphasis on it can be misleading,” Williams writes. “When it comes to how public opinion may shape the debate, it’s essential to pay attention to opinions in the various states, and among particular interest groups.” Naomi Schalit Senior Editor, Politics + Society Abortion rights activists demonstrate outside Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home in Maryland on May 18, 2022. Bonnie Cash/Getty Images [Most people support abortion staying legal, but that may not matter in making law]( Tarah Williams, Allegheny College Americans have long said they generally support abortion rights, but understanding specific breakdowns of opinion across demographics, and the history of abortion beliefs, is also important. The front page of the local newspaper in Uvalde, Texas, on May 26, 2022. Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images) [Why gun control laws don’t pass Congress, despite majority public support and repeated outrage over mass shootings]( Monika L. McDermott, Fordham University; David R. Jones, Baruch College, CUNY The nature of elected office combines with the lasting priorities of public opinion to put gun control on the back burner, even in times when it does get massive public attention. Reconstructed slave cabins at James Madison’s Montpelier in Virginia. Stephen P. Hanna [Modern-day struggle at James Madison’s plantation Montpelier to include the descendants’ voices of the enslaved]( Stephen P. Hanna, University of Mary Washington; Amy Potter, Georgia Southern University; Derek H. Alderman, University of Tennessee Once owned by James Madison, the Montpelier plantation remains a model for presenting a full depiction of the life of the former president as well as the lives of those he enslaved. - [How the NRA evolved from backing a 1934 ban on machine guns to blocking nearly all firearm restrictions today]( Robert Spitzer, State University of New York College at Cortland The group, founded in 1871, didn’t try to smother virtually all gun control efforts until the mid-1970s. - [Conflicts over language stretch far beyond Russia and Ukraine]( Stanley Dubinsky, University of South Carolina; Anyssa Murphy, University of South Carolina; Harvey Starr, University of South Carolina; Michael Gavin, University of South Carolina It’s common for people to live near others who speak a different – but similar – language. But generally, they handle their differences without violence. - [Teachers often struggle to address mass traumatic events in class]( Jennifer Greif Green, Boston University; Jonathan S. Comer, Florida International University; Melissa Holt, Boston University Schoolteachers routinely report feeling ill-prepared to guide their students through difficult conversations about high-profile violent events. - [One family’s photo album includes images of a vacation, a wedding anniversary and the lynching of a Black man in Texas]( Jeffrey L. Littlejohn, Sam Houston State University If Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had his way, the state’s past of lynching Blacks would be taught as an exception rather than the rule. History tells a different story. - [50 years of UN environmental diplomacy: What’s worked and the trends ahead]( Mihaela Papa, Tufts University The Stockholm Conference in June 1972 launched five decades of international negotiations on everything from biodiversity to climate change. - [The ‘sonnenrad’ used in shooters’ manifestos: a spiritual symbol of hate]( Helen A. Berger, Brandeis University The far-right today shares more than just ideas with white supremacists of yesterday – they also share some pagan-inspired symbols. - [6 charts show key role firearms makers play in America’s gun culture]( Michael Siegel, Tufts University A closer look at firearms sales reveals some interesting trends that should be part of America’s ongoing conversation about the root causes of gun violence. Like this newsletter? 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