Abortion ballot questions may not lift Democratic candidates

+ Israel's settler movement and Netanyahu's staying power US Edition - Today's top story: Abortion rights are on 10 state ballots in November − Democrats can't count on this to win elections for them [View in browser]( US Edition | 19 September 2024 [The Conversation] [The Conversation]( There’s a story that now and then makes its way into the news. It’s the counterintuitive story, the one that says, “This thing that you thought, that you knew as a fact? Well, it’s wrong.” That’s just about my favorite kind of story, because it shows what good journalism can do, which is to poke holes in conventional wisdom. And that’s what Benjamin Case did this week. Case, a political sociologist at Arizona State University, analyzes the potential impact on election results for the 10 states where [abortion rights are on the ballot this year](. “Many political analysts and pundits view abortion as a partisan issue, fueling speculation that direct votes on abortion rights will boost Democrats’ chances up and down the ballot in November,” he writes. “Some Democratic strategists are hoping that turnout from the ballot initiatives will swing elections away from Republican candidates in key states such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida.” But a ballot initiative’s effect on who wins and who loses is “rarely so straightforward,” says Case. And abortion isn’t an issue with clear partisan boundaries. “The issue is polarizing, but not down the middle and not strictly along party lines. Nationwide polls show long-standing majority support for abortion rights, including among many Republicans.” So that advantage that Democrats see where abortion rights is on the ballot? While initiatives to protect those rights will likely win, says Case, “that will not necessarily translate into broader Democratic candidate victories.” Also in this week’s politics news: - [What patriotism meant to Americans 250 years ago]( - [Resume check: presidential candidates on health care]( - [Unhappy voters typically vote for change – that matters in November]( Naomi Schalit Senior Editor, Politics + Democracy Signs supporting the ‘Right to Abortion’ initiative are displayed during a rally on Sept. 5, 2024, in Bozeman, Montana. William Campbell/Getty Images [Abortion rights are on 10 state ballots in November − Democrats can’t count on this to win elections for them]( Benjamin Case, Arizona State University Arizona, Florida, New York and Nevada are among the states with upcoming abortion ballot initiatives. Democrats are counting on these ballot measures to help swing elections away from GOP candidates. Police officers stand guard prior to Donald Trump’s campaign rally in Johnstown, Pa., on Aug. 30, 2024. Justin Merriman/Getty Images [Why Pennsylvania is the key to a Harris or Trump Electoral College victory]( Alauna Safarpour, Gettysburg College Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are spending an awful lot of time in Pennsylvania. Why? Because Pennsylvania voters hold one set of keys to the White House. Will Kamala Harris’ candidacy inspire other women to run for office? Grant {NAME}/Getty Images [Women are still underrepresented in local government, despite a woman running for president]( Justin de Benedictis-Kessner, Harvard Kennedy School Until now, researchers and the public knew very little about how well women were represented outside the federal government. International [How the Israeli settlers movement shaped modern Israel]( Arie Perliger, UMass Lowell The settler movement has unprecedented power in Israel today − the result of a decades-long push to mainstream its views and leaders. [Pager attack on Hezbollah was a sophisticated ‘booby-trap’ operation − it was also illegal]( Mary Ellen O'Connell, University of Notre Dame International law clearly states that hiding explosives in objects that could be picked up by civilians is strictly prohbited. [How Israel’s Netanyahu survives in his job]( Shai P. Ginsburg, Duke University The impression that Israel is at a stalemate or that there is a rift between leader Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli public over the fate of the hostages is misleading. His hold on power is solid. [UN’s pact to protect future generations will be undermined by Security Council’s veto and its use in cases of mass atrocity]( Mike Brand, University of Connecticut The permanent members of the UN Security Council have repeatedly used their power of veto to block resolutions relating to mass atrocities. Is it time to revoke that power? - [Trump’s second assassination attempt is shocking, but attempts on presidents’ lives are not rare in US history]( Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin While 4 presidents have been killed, many others have been victims of plots to end their lives − sometimes because of political anger, but many other times for incomprehensible reasons. - [You want to vote in the 2024 election − here is how to make sure that your voice is heard]( Amy Dacey, American University Every state’s regulations and procedures are different, and it is vital that you understand the requirements and opportunities to vote where you live. - [Why the cost of water for poor Black Detroit voters may be key to Kamala Harris winning – or losing – Michigan]( Ronald Brown, Wayne State University; R. Khari Brown, Wayne State University Working-class and poor Black Detroiters tend to vote inconsistently in presidential elections, but they could be key to winning the swing state of Michigan in 2024. - [Kamala Harris effectively baited Donald Trump during the debate, drawing out his insecure white masculinity]( Karrin Vasby Anderson, Colorado State University Trump’s display during the debate shows that his white male insecurity is a liability to his candidacy − and a threat to the country. - [Fujimori’s death won’t end pursuit of justice for Peruvian victims – or stop the strongman’s supporters from revering his legacy]( - [‘They’re eating pets’ – another example of US politicians smearing Haiti and Haitian immigrants]( - [Health care under Harris versus Trump: A public health historian sizes up their records]( - [Happiness swings votes – and America’s current mood could scramble expectations of young and old voters]( - [To American revolutionaries, patriotism meant fair dealing with one another]( - - More of The Conversation Like this newsletter? 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